Russia invades Ukraine - 2 - from 4 May 2022

[Benny40]

Sanctions beginning against westerners who have produced Russian propaganda for state media.

Alex Kokcharov

[Benny40]

What equipment have Russia and Ukraine lost so far? And what equipment have they gained?

[ArthurD]

@No.10

Is it possible Crimea is declared a demilitarized zone, regardless of who is in control? Putin originally wanted to demilitarize Ukraine. As a matter of good faith they can demilitarize Crimea.

Wishful thinking I know.

The good faith is wishful thinking.

But without relying on any good faith at all, demilitarization of Crimea could be both necessary and possible.

Meanwhile, as announced by Ukraine’s representative to UN Security Council, Ukraine is proceeding with the demilitarization of all Russian forces sent to it.

[ArthurD]

Ukrainian Air Force

[stir_fried_ewok]

@Benny40

Looks like they are right up north against the Russian border.

cannon fodder?

[Benny40]

Lavrov calling Israelis Nazis has gone well.

EndGameWW3 🇺🇸

[saladin]

You can’t make this ■■■■ up. They’re literally medieval, lmfao.

Anastasiia Lapatina

I wonder what the magic was? A working radio ?

[Benny40]

Samuel Ramani

[Speedy_Gonzales]

Igor Sushko

[Albert_Thurgood]

That bloke showed more initiative and bravery than the Rus soldiers in UKR have. Also, better planning than Rus generals.

[barry_day]

Hungary is making it’s bed.

Hungary holds up EU plan to ban imports of Russian oil

Budapest says economy would suffer from Ursula von der Leyen’s proposal to phase out supplies in an ‘orderly fashion’
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Hungary is holding up an EU plan to ban almost all imports of Russian oil, saying it would block the move, which requires unanimity among the bloc’s 27 member states.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, vowed on Wednesday that the EU would phase out all supplies of crude or refined Russian oil in an “orderly fashion”.
The ban would hit crude oil within six months and refined products by the end of the year. But Hungary on Wednesday said it would reject the proposal unless there was an exception for countries like it that import Russian crude via pipelines. “In its current form the Brussels sanctions package cannot be supported, we cannot responsibly vote for it,” foreign minister Péter Szijjártó said in a Facebook video. “Hungary could only agree with these sanctions if pipeline imports of crude oil would be exempt from the restrictions.
Then Hungary’s energy security could be maintained. Now it cannot.” Szijjártó said sanctions would make it “impossible to procure the crude oil the Hungarian economy needs to operate”. Slovakia and the Czech Republic also have doubts as they rely on the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline, which transits Ukraine, to import Ural-type crude oil, which the region’s refineries are geared to process.
Hungary and Slovakia have been offered an extra year to comply but a Slovak official told the Financial Times that the country needed at least two. Diplomats said Czech prime minister Petr Fiala would visit Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday to argue for a longer transition before he could support the sanctions. The sixth package of penalties against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine has proved the most difficult.

[elfm]

@megahertz

@ArthurD

The large numerical advantage, and potential replenishments from deep storage (> 17k old artillery, 4k self propelled, 12k towed) means that successful slow fighting retreat with much greater attrition of Russian forces than of Ukrainian does not prevent Russia continuing the war after having occupied whole Donbas with aim of encircling major cities and bombarding to compel a ceasefire while holding territory that landlocks Ukraine.

The big assumption in that map is this:

current assumption is units are consolidating the BTGs as they take losses, reducing the total
number of effective BTGs but keeping the resulting BTGs at near full strength.

Is there any good basis for that assumption?

It would be the common sense thing to do but that takes time and carries lots of issues; one bein morale - bad morale propagates like and infection and it’s very hard to fix. Mashing two destroyed BTG together takes a long time for them to be efficient again as we are seeing. (background: canadian army command and staff college)

[barry_day]

Telling us what we all knew.

U.S. Intelligence Is Helping Ukraine Kill Russian Generals, Officials Say

[Benny40]

Ukraine’s latest counterattack around Kharkiv puts them 30km from the main supply route linking Belgorod to Izyum.

Ukraine War Map

Gradual Russian advance continues north of the river, none of the critical Ukrainian defences have fallen.

Ukraine War Map

Ukraine holding firm in urban battles to the Far East.

Ukraine War Map

[bigallan]

The sanctions on ships could be extremely difficult to implement and the incidence could vary between EU members ( including Greek ships transporting to non EU)
Banks are accustomed to the application of sanctions and have the tools in place. Sanctions applying to ships have mostly related to the goods carried and enforced at ports. Ownership of ships is more complex and if third countries are affected by access to essential supplies, there are wider political ramifications.

[megahertz]

@barry_day

Telling us what we all knew.

U.S. Intelligence Is Helping Ukraine Kill Russian Generals, Officials Say - The New York Times

Exactly

[Benny40]

Quality thread on the makeup of Ukraine’s military NCO system.

TLDR: the professional NCO system like NATO hadn’t been achieved, as there was a lot of turnover in lower ranks. But commanders kept a rollerdex of former servicemen with key skills and would hire them back into the army whenever they were deployed to the JFO conflict zone in the Donbas. So this ended up producing a huge number of highly experienced and highly motivated reservists. This achieved a similar result as a full time professional NCO.

Jack Watling

[chris_64]

Sanctions beginning against westerners who have produced Russian propaganda

So Tucker Carlson’s copping sanctions then?

[bigallan]

Reportedly, there is a lot circulating on Chinese language social media, including reports of the US and Ukraine manufacturing Covid in Ukraine research labs, then releasing it elsewhere.

[saladin]

Ahh, it all makes sense now. Covid was created with Ukrainian black magic in a mess hall beneath Azovstal steelworks.