Russia invades Ukraine - 3 - from 23 Oct 2022

I think Cuba may be a step too far, but any way to break the military supply link to Russia has enormous geopolitical power long term. If you supply arms, you have influence over that country.

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Studying English in the middle of a War

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Should we (people voting Yes) try to organize a wider campaign in support of Australia taking the opportunity suggested by Mike Ryan

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Luka says Luka has been asked to seal a non-aggression pact with Ukraine.

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image

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It’s what anyone would have expected who watched his show “Servant of the People”.

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Could be just fluff or could be very significant.

Confirmation with spin from official Russian newsagency:

Dang

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Makes sense.
Get the Leo 2s as a stop gap solution, they are plentiful and have a local supply chain & support network.
Long term new Abrams, build up the support network, and training over time that you’ve bought with the Leos.

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Great that the tank deadlock(s) appear to be finally getting sorted out.

I wonder if in the medium to long-term F16s might actually be more impactful, given what Ukraine has been able to do with the limited MIGs and SUs they have.

Not that it’s a one or the other scenario.

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Russia’s defence is too weak to fight Ukraine’s new tanks | General Jack Kean

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As much as it would be great to have 50-100 Abrams delivered today, the delay does have some upsides. Ukraine can focus on absorbing one complex type of equipment at a time. European nations are likely to be more generous if the Leopards are the short term solution. Some may try to dodge that responsibility if the US is giving stuff earlier.

Telegraphing to Russia that donations will be long term and will escalate over time changes their calculus. If the 2024 battlefield includes hundreds of Leopard and Abrams tanks, then plans for a long term attritional war becomes unviable.

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Meaning a swift offensive becomes more likely…

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It could provoke Russia to a last ditch “hail mary” offensive, knowing that they are toast if they don’t win it all before summer.

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Russia won’t be toast - their home territory will be unchallenged. Maybe more like a warm muffin.

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Be nice to see him sent to the front line!

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Perhaps a bubbling soup or stew?

With a Mosin–Nagant, one clip of ammo and no body armour

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