Russia invades Ukraine - 3 - from 23 Oct 2022

Visible to the naked eye. One giant blue ball. We’re all living on that giant Ukrainian testicle now.

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Ukraine SOF on the Dniper

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SFE, Unfortunately, the addiction of the West to an economic growth model, with demand driven by population increase to improve conditions for all ( which can never be achieved) has a number of lethal side effects like global warming, over crowding, habitat destruction all of which will end up destroying the economic growth mechanism. It is inevitable. It is not enough to just fight global warming. A new steady state economic model must be found. Its not the western industrial complex we have come to know so well, but its not communism either.

Endless growth will destroy us.

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“Russian propagandists say that the recent rally in the center of Moscow, where the participants demanded a nuclear strike on Washington, was most likely coordinated with and approved by the Federal Security Service and other governmental entities.”

I find that very hard to believe…

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If Russia do suddenly decide to surrender and get out, how would it actually work? How would they go about leaving?

Could they agree on a ceasefire and Russia would have 3 days to get out?

Ukraine would probably insist all equipment be left behind, but Russia would need vehicles/busses/trains to drive them home.

Obviously there would be lots of details to work out, and Ukraine would have other demands, so maybe Russia would prefer a fighting retreat where they didn’t have to agree to anything.

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Russia is not going to surrender.

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Agree with all of this @chris_64.
Is this a response to a post I made in the global warming thread?

Probably not, at least for a while.

But talks of negotiations (e.g. from the USA) would be more likely when 1 party wants to surrender, and that’s more likely to be Russia.

And in 6 months time, Russia should have lost a few more chunks of Ukraine, then more again in 12 months (if not completely routed).

So I guess you’re in the “fighting retreat” camp…

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They will largely get pushed back to their start locations at the beginning of the year, hopefully.
At that point they may start negotiating. Short of a complete collapse, I don’t see Crimea being taken by Ukraine.

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I just can’t imagine Ukraine not trying to take Crimea (not saying they will succeed).

If Ukraine is successful in taking back the south (the 'land bridge), then surely re-supplying Crimea becomes very difficult for the Russians.

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Mariupol area is going to be difficult to reoccupy, given Russian control of the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait (no capacity to launch UAVs as in the Black Sea); presence of Russian warships; if Russian troops are in numbers there; and if the area is beyond missile strike capacity from UA occupied territory.

Perhaps.
As the front lines get closer to Mariupol, everything becomes in range of Ukraine’s arsenal. HIMARS, Excalibur, their anti-shipping missiles etc.

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