Ukraine will also likely recoup combat power from western Kherson and redeploy it to other areas for both defensive and counter-offensive operations. The UAF could conceivably try to chase the Russians across the Dnipro River at various points but is unlikely to do so because the logistics of supporting a Ukrainian lodgment on the eastern bank are very daunting. The UAF is therefore more likely to consolidate its control of the western bank, leave enough force to deter any Russian attempt to cross the river again, and reallocate forces to other areas. The Russian offensive in Donetsk Oblast will likely require the UAF to divert some forces to defend in that area, but the UAF will likely send at least part of the recouped combat power either to reinforce its ongoing counter-offensive in Luhansk Oblast or to open another counter-offensive somewhere else (we will not speculate about where that might be).
The logistics problems for Ukrainian artillery on right bank pounding Russian defences on left bank in support of attacks from flanks look imaginary compared with the problems for demoralized forces ordered to hold another line in Kherson.
I am a total novice on this stuff, and rely on the wise words of the many posters here to have even the faintest idea of what is going on - but is this actually correct?
On the left bank the soldiers were squeezed between the river and the ukrainians coming from the north. On the right bank, if those soldiers are squeezed between the river and the Ukrainians coming from the south, aren’t those Ukrainians coming from the south sandwiched between the Ukrainians coming from Crimea and above?
The map in that tweet is from the north, looking south. russian forces in Kherson oblast have retreated to the left bank (east) of the dnipro and are between the river and Crimea. (Left and right bank of the river are defined by the direction of its flow. The dnipro flows to the sea.) To support them russia needs to keep the land bridge to russia through Melitopol and Mariupol open. If the AFU make a thrust south from Zaporizhzhia to the Azov sea they can cut russian supply lines and trap them in that pocket, the only escape for them will be through Crimea.
The port of Yesyk is on the Russian coast of the Sea of Azov opposite Mariupol.
It does not appear to be a military port, but it does have a military airfield ( the source of the crash into the apartment block in the city).
I love that in a thread about war where footage of actual people dying is regularly posted and we saw a bloke with an unexploded shell in his shoulder three days ago we’re getting testy about a testicle metaphor.
The recent shift towards ramping up production for munitions needed in a longer war is one of the changes in force posture that recently gave me more confidence the West will not let the Russian fascist regime continue (as it did in Syria):
