True. Additionally, there would be enough warning as the breach develops.
Also, looking at a reference point along the dam , there’s not much difference in water levels from before it burst.
So I changed my mind.
Judging by this tweet, he is suggesting that the Russians knew that there were many UA forces (spec ops perhaps?) on the islands in the Dnipro. They blew the dam to flood them out, perhaps drowning them, but only later realised that it was a massive mistake.
At two o’clock in the morning, the Russians blow up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, but they don’t see how much. It’s not very visible, but it can still hit.
The Russians still think that they have neatly blown up a small part of the HPP and are flooding our military on the islands. At 6:06 a.m., the head of Nova Kakhovka, Leontyev, said that the explosion of the GES was nonsense. Like, we don’t know why the water rose there. Here is the link to Ria Novosti’s http://archive.is/aTyK8
Russian OSINT intelligence community Rybar picks up the thesis and says a small area was blown up at 6:51 a.m. Link http://archive.ph/flapa
At 6:51 in Nova Kakhovka, they see that the dam is a complete ass, and the mom’s stratagems start to realize that they are in trouble. The mayor of Nova Kakhovka abruptly changes his rhetoric and says there was no explosion, it was a shelling by the Ukrainian army. Link http://archive.ph/LFFKF
But the propagandists, who do not know what the ■■■■ has happened, continue to work according to the methodology and continue to throw into the information space that the dam was previously shelled, and then it got a little tired and broke a little. Here is a post by Podolyaki’s propagandist http://archive.ph/DgQIV. And the propaganda channel War on Fakes http://archive.ph/GRN55
Other telegram channels that cooperate with the military are happily hopping on one leg, cheering, because of the undermining of the Kakhovka dam, the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the islands are flooded, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to evacuate and escape, and then they publish joyful reports of how they are hitting the positions of our guys on the islands. 08:25 Link http://archive.ph/c0iHL
Here, the Russians are slowly realizing that they have created a large-scale man-made environmental disaster, almost as large as Chernobyl. And they are starting to reverse. Russian influence on the information space is changing its tone dramatically. They instantly change their tune and start accusing the Ukrainian side of provocations. Like it’s a Bankova operation A reference to the same “war on fakes” that said the dam had somehow collapsed on its own… http://archive.ph/x8uwT
But even in their excuses, the racists still screwed up. Either the dam was blown up, or Olha was shelled with MLRS… http://archive.ph/uF0Xm Although any sapper will give a hundred percent guarantee that it is impossible to make such destruction from the outside, the damage here was done by planting explosives
And then they are already beginning to adhere to this thesis, because what they have done is a huge international tragedy, especially in the environmental sense.
The state-owned enterprises VOP CZ and Ukroboronprom will start jointly repairing Ukrainian T-64 tanks, after which they will head to the battlefield
Author: press department of the Ministry of Defense
The military repair company in Novojichino will start repairs of Ukrainian T-64 tanks in the near future. The exact number of equipment that will be revised in the Czech Republic in the coming months cannot be specified for security reasons, the tanks will head directly to the battlefield. The contract for the repair and modernization of T-64 tanks of the Ukrainian army was concluded by the state enterprise on the basis of a memorandum between the state enterprises VOP CZ and the Ukrainian state concern Ukroboronprom from February this year.
“The Czech Republic supports and will support Ukraine in its fight against the Russian aggressor. We provide unnecessary military equipment, train Ukrainian soldiers and now help with repairs of Ukrainian equipment. We offer our knowledge and skills for training and repairs, and we gain invaluable combat experience from the Ukrainians,” said Defense Minister Jana Černochová.
By the end of this year, VOP CZ employees must be able to repair an unspecified number of T-64 machines, still of Soviet origin. “For VOP CZ, this is a great opportunity to repair technology that then goes straight to the front,” says company director Marek Špok. He added that the workers of his company visited the Ukroboronprom plants in Ukraine in recent weeks to establish mutual cooperation.
According to Špok, the tanks have been in storage for decades and require complete disassembly, replacement of many spare parts and full restoration of combat capability. “In general, the modernization will take place under the technical supervision of experts from the Ukrainian side, due to its direct participation. The tanks will be equipped with means of an optical observation system, better communication and so on,” explains Špok, adding that everything will take place under increased security measures.
“We are grateful to our Czech colleagues for the partnership and we believe in great prospects for our cooperation. The agreements reached with VOP CZ are the fulfillment of the contract on the creation of a joint defense cluster with the Czech Republic, which Ukroboronprom and the Agency for Intergovernmental Defense Cooperation (AMOS) concluded at the end of last year. Cooperation generally includes the production of military equipment, increasing the production of ammunition of various calibers (both at existing capacities and newly created in safe places), the development of service nodes for the maintenance and repair of anti-aircraft weapons, as well as cooperation in the field of high technologies, in particular, the creation of joint scientific and research center,” said Ukroboronprom CEO Yuri Husyev.
The important role of AMOS
The project is one of the first concrete results of cooperation after the creation of the so-called defense cluster (more here ), which is supposed to support the creation of new Czech-Ukrainian joint ventures with the aim of increasing the production of military equipment for the needs of the armed forces of Ukraine.
According to Aleš Vytečka, director of the Agency for Intergovernmental Defense Cooperation, which connected the two companies, VOP CZ is the first company to sign a similar contract. “Cooperation between state enterprises in times of crisis war resolution is very effective. VOP CZ is also a company with a tradition and rich experience in repairing heavy military equipment, namely tanks,” reminded Vytečka.
The hydro power system of that dam is an electricity source for southern Ukraine, runs into rivers, is used to irrigate crops and is a source of fresh water for Crimea. The consequences go far beyond flood .damage
There will be another a Katz video on the dam soon. Meanwhile:
Unlikely Duties | Putin’s Power Shift Amid Crisis (English subtitles)
The war hit Russia’s southern region of Belgorod. What are the reactions of the regional and federal authorities? Let’s discuss today the governors of the border regions and the unlikely role they are now playing.
Says the regional governors are federal bureaucrats dependent on central budget with no real local power. But during covid the center suddenly delegated pandemic policy to them and now border regions are having to act independently in the confusing breakdown of central authority with conflicting armed forces plus Ukrainian incursions. They have no idea what to do and neither does the center.
Nevertheless the system will limp on elsewhere as long as the central budgeting remains.
Admits to finding his own description confusing so can only watch what happens without predictions.
Statements by Grossi of IAEA are up on his twitter account.
Enough water from the dam had been pumped for a few days supply. Emergency consumption reduction measure are in place. There is alternative supply close to ZNPP which should be sufficient for some months . However, any damage to that source would have grave consequences,
There’s been chatter, probably Russian fake news, about the Russian ammonia pipeline to the Black Sea being damaged. Shipments of ammonia from Odessa are a sticking point in the Black Sea grain corridor negotiations. Russia is holding up inspections of ships at the Bosphorus and is refusing registration for shipping via one of the three Ukraine ports on the Black Sea. It is threatening non renewal of the grain corridor deal, at the same time as transit of Ukraine exports through Poland are being held up by Polish Customs.
The UN is trying to knock heads together on the Black Sea grain corridor but has explained that it is not a party to the agreement, which is based on consensus.
Meanwhile, the EU is trying to improve conditions of transit of UA foodstuffs via Poland, against a backdrop of a deterioration of relations on humanitarian affairs and Poland refusing to accept the application of relevant EU laws, as the EU withholds funding on that account. At the same time, there have been mass protests in Poland at the role of the judiciary in approving Polish legislation eroding civil rights.
I was wondering whether there was a punch line to this story about RU Army not being supplied with the right batteries for mines so having to buy substitute batteries as it does not seem worth mentioning. Thought it might have implications of mines failing to deactivate. The GCIHD Explosive Ordinance Guide for Ukraine says (pdf 27 of 152):
The PTM-3 incorporates a battery powered BT-06 magnetic influence fuze. If no target presents itself, the mine should in theory self-destruct 16-24 hours after deployment.
Due to its magnetic influence method of operation, any attempted movement of an armed
mine is likely to result in detonation. As with all influence fuzed munitions, minimum
metal precautions should be taken. PTM-3 mines should not be approached within the
self-destruct period…
Could not find anything on that in the thread. But did come across lots of other interesting stuff via the linked Telenko thread with replies below.
Hacked Russian radio and TV broadcasts with deep fake video of Putin announcing martial law, mobilization and orderly evacuation from border regions. Thread at link also has voice dubbed with English translation.
Interesting politics in this. Presumably done by Ukrainian Intelligence. But could equally be done by internal pro-war opponents of Putin to ridicule his failure to mobilize (except for the bit about evacuation, which points to Ukraine origins):
Interesting Telenko thread with good explanation and links supporting similar views to mine on future relevance of drones:
In my view, a new combined arms drone/electronic warfare military branch is going to eat US Army aviation, artillery, air defense & military intelligence branches with a few unit names to mark their passing like horse cavalry.
But only after the USA loses a war for its lack.
5/
There are too many organizational ‘iron rice bowls’ involved for it to happen any other way.(https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f62d.svg “Loudly crying face”) 6/6 End
17/
That is the straight up implication of 10K trained AFU drone operators. One drone operator for every 100 Ukrainian soldiers.
All 10K AFU operators won’t be there, but 1,000?
Heck yeah.
18/
And 10 separate drone attacks per operator in an eight to 10 hour period is my baseline for attack day productivity metric.
True, all 1,000 operators can’t share the same radio spectrum at the same time.
Key idea there, “same time.”
19/
Six operators of DJI grenade dropping drones in a small section of front can use 10 minutes of every hour to conduct an attack at a RuAF trench system.
Each of six team doing 10 attacks in a 10 hour period will be 60 attacks far more lethal than a mortar battery with 100’s
20/
Other AFU drones teams on a different frequency with observation drones flying 20 minutes of every hour calling artillery on the same section of front.
And a third frequency for a drone one the same section of front with 1 hour of endurance trading off with
21/
…other drone teams w/one hour drones.
When the Russians complain about Ukrainian drone swarms, my final check, #8, will be completed.
And the AFU offensive will be “on” like Donkey Kong.
I’ll be writing about other TTPs for drones and their communications, but above indicates some of the sort of impacts already feasible.
Item 6 above was the last part of a checklist on indications confirming Ukraine Offensive is coming:
The fortifications that Russia has managed to build in a short period of time are quite impressive. One wonders how differently things might have turned out if Ukr had deeper fortifications in the East at the start of the war, although it does seem that a lot of the early capitulation was due to Russian partisanship from people in positions of power.
Russian state media publishes footage from a Ka-52 attack helicopter engaging Ukrainian Leopard 2 tanks yesterday.
Just one problem.
They’re harvesters and sprayers, not tanks.
It turned out that the video was also filmed last year. So they destroyed tractors a year ago posted it, and now they posted it again as “destruction of Leopards.”
I read somewhere of a Czech company doing a handy business for Ukraine of blow up plastic military weapons placed as decoys. I don’t imagine though that the hits would make good photography, more for the purpose of using up ammo.