Last year Demons had a soft draw for those ten games. After that they came up against the better sides and were found out. FWIW I reckon the Dees will be one of the teams to beat. They looked very good against the Dogs.
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He needs to put his glasses on.
8 goals on him in 2 games…but put Stewart or Henry and Dekonig there and hes probably got a lot more support or back in the 2’s
Scott not concerned not pannicking.
Draw opens up 10 day break next 3 winnable
suns, Hawks and west coast.
get key players back
Koldasnij next week
Duncan in 2 weeks
Tom Stewart in 3 weeks
I wonder…Geelong have a lot of old players (Dangerfield, Guthrie, Tuohy etc) who busted their ■■■■■ for years and years to get that elusive premiership. Now they’ve finally got it, they finally got to the summit after so many near misses, could there be a pretty major comedown this year? Maybe for many of those players that little bit of extra incentive is now gone.
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Essendon & Brisbane both broke this rule, but they were also both over 20 years ago. It doesn’t hold every time, but it’s pretty common. The results below with the exceptions in bold.
2003, 2004, 2009, 2011, 2012-2015, 2019, 2020 were all teams who’d won a premiership relatively recently, so it wasn’t their “first”.
Port 2004: didn’t make the prelim
Sydney 2005: Made GF but lost
WCE 2006: didn’t make the prelim
Geelong 2007: Made GF but lost
Hawthorn 2008: didn’t make finals
Collingwood 2010: Made the GF but lost
Bulldogs 2016: Didn’t make the finals
Richmond 2017: knocked out in the prelim
WCE 2018: didn’t make the prelim
Melbourne 2021: didn’t make the prelim
So in the last 20 years there have been 10 premiers who won it with a team who had (mostly) not won it before, and only 30% made it to the next grand final. None backed it up the year after. One other team made the prelim, four made finals but didn’t make it to the prelim and two didn’t even make finals.
Statistically, Geelong is very low odds to win the premiership, and 70% likely to fail to make the grand final.
There is about a 50% chance Melbourne or Richmond win it, given they’re the recent premiers with a show.
Edit: it might also apply to teams making Grand Finals. Working backwards from 2021, Bulldogs did zip, Geelong made prelim, GWS missed finals, Collingwood made prelim, Adelaide missed finals, Sydney knocked out first round, WCE knocked out first round, Sydney didn’t make prelim and Fremantle didn’t make prelim. So also pretty poor ability to back it up.
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I’m not writing them off, but they definitely are starting slower than expected.
Their hunger isn’t there.
They haven’t been able to have a few quarters of dominance, but they’ve given that dominance away relatively quickly.
Geelong’s last decade has been to bank some wins early, rest players around the middle of the year, get going towards the end.
The last time they lost their opening two games, they missed finals (2015). They’ve lost both games, but they were in both games half way through the last quarter. So they haven’t fallen away too far.
I think they’ll still make 5th to 8th.
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Sorry to interrupt but I’m. It sure which thread to mention this. But watching the FC game against Geelong…Jobe Watson commentary is outstanding. Anyone else notice this?
Sure, I’ve noticed Jobe Watson’s commentary.
I think after that point our opinions may vastly diverge, though.
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Jobe the commentator isn’t a patch on Jobe the player…
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The same could be said for most common potators, exhibit A, BT.
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Cameron in doubt this week. Didn’t train today apparently.
Anyone think there’s a chance GC could beat them this round?
Yes
I think reports of Geelong death have been greatly exaggerated. They lost to Collingwood after they got a run on and lost to a team who could be pushing top 4 narrowly. The first couple of rounds are always a bit up in the air as teams work each other out, and they were close enough in both against quality opponents.
Geelong are finished. Gold Coast are hungry and at home. Suns by 10 goals.
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Gamble responsibly, in other words, don’t bet on it.
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If Cameron is sore, and we know Tomahawk is about 70%, the GCS can definitely win.
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Geelong will demolish them by 60+
Harley Reid Cup this week.
If Cats lose, they must bt tanking harder than Hawks for him 
10+goal perentage booster for Cats incoming hopefully. At least they will be determined to bang home plenty of goals.
first time since 1976 a premier has started 0-3! Worst Geelong start since 2004! Something about Doug Wade probably!
Dont listen to Captain Jack 
?
Fair point, GCS would have paid a pretty penny, but still not enough to entice me into betting. Cats in complete disarray and free falling right now.