Actually, its better than that.
Step 1 - we MUST win (obvs), and preferably by 10 goals.
Step 2 Fremantle MUST win, to knock the Saints below us (they have a crap percentage).
Step 3a - Dees win, we get a game clear of Sydney.
Step 3b - Swans win, but not by much we can still get ahead of them on percentage if we win by enough.
Dogs vs Eagles result doesn’t affect us as we go ahead of the loser either way. Only spanner in those works would be if they draw, as 2 points each will keep both of them above us.
So aside us absolutely having to win, the most crucial result for us is Freo winning. If they lose there is no way we’re in the 8 at round’s end.
Feel free to mess around yourself here - http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor