I basically expect Tesla to go bankrupt at some point. The car industry is simply so competitive, it is hard to make an enduring profit.
I am trying to work out what their competitive advantage will be, to avoid this fate:
- It certainly isn't in the vehicle body, nothing new there.
- Battery manufacturing? Maybe that is what they will rely on, scale capture of a battery making margin. I can see first mover advantage, but not confident you can beat the Chinese in manufacturing these days.
- Automation technology? Again first mover, but the other car companies are trying now as well, as is Uber aren't they?
I think Tesla will have stimulated change, but not confident that they be a financial survivor in the upcoming fight...I'm interested in any thoughts.