The 2024 Draft [no longer spec] Thread

Oh you sweet, sweet boy.

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It’s nice to want things

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Sounds like someone’s got a few hurt feelings

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This post is a far better explanation than your first attempt, your meaning is clearer.

It’s such a shame we didn’t get see more of Hotton this year, his early form before the ACL was great, was rated in the top handful & we could definitely use a classy HF. Dunno if we’d have the stones to pull the trigger on him at 9/10.

I wonder if there were any surprises at the combine with top ranked players like Hotton, Allan, Lindsay, Kako, Reid and I think a couple more all out injured.

Allan is one who has shot up the order from Cal & RMC in their latest rankings, I really like the look of him as well, you’d have the suss the go home factor to WA but he’s a bull.

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not very good with the ball though is he

Yeah he’s more of a Ginbey by foot, I have the same issue with Travaglia.

Lindsay could be the guy if we want the best kick

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I would be more concerned of another club shafting us if Dodoro was still at the helm, no one has an axe to grind with Rosa yet.

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I reckon saints will take that punt having two picks especially with he’s brother on the list

I completely disagree. It very often pans out close to as expected. 2018 was expected to be one of the strongest first rounds in recent memory, and for the most part that’s exactly as its played out. Not every pick pans out, and there are plenty that pop up unexpectedly. That’s drafting, its not an exact science.

2020 and 2021 were considered drafts to avoid given the covid interrupted junior seasons which set back many prospects in their development. 2020 has been a bit of a disaster, just like was predicted. 2021 has predominantly given us strong prospects from the top 10 (as well as some busts) but very little from the later rounds.

2022 was expected to be a poor draft class, and so far its living up to its billing.

2023 was expected to have a very strong top 10 and then to drop away rapidly after that. So far, that seems to have born out, with the notable exception of Darcy Wilson and perhaps Logan Morris… but there’s still plenty left to play out there.

So to say that “it never pans out the way the experts suggest” just isn’t a correct statement at all. As I said, its an inexact science. You can never fully predict how a kid will adapt to a professional environment or whether they’ll be able to cope with the pressure. Sometimes the experts do get it wrong. But often they’re pretty close to the mark.

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Reminds me of the year maybe a few prior to that when we somehow had TWO top 5 picks … Daniel McAlister and Mark Bolton. You would almost cry

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Pick 7 went alright though.

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A bit like Massimo

What is 2025 shaping up like?

Hussein El Achkar, come on down!

I like the top end so far, feel like the first round in general is shaping to be pretty strong, but it will be super compromised with a number of Northern Academy prospects. Overall I don’t like making too many predictions about depth a year out as I feel as though depth tends to reveal itself throughout the top age season as kids step up with increased responsibility.

Some features from 2025:

  • Stronger non-vic crops of talent. Especially over in WA and in QLD. The vic teams might be in for a tougher time at the Champs although metro typically finds a way.
  • A more diverse top end, should be a good crop for key forwards and there are some talented half backs/wings.
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Thanks for that. There’s always a few bolters that emerge to strengthen the top end I feel, like Tauru etc.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2024-october-rankings-top-60-prospects-ranked-full-scouting-report/news-story/4f0863aa22dd67a0b4cf872b6526eb3c

HS Top 20 October rankings (full article has top 60):

1 - Levi Ashcroft (Bris)
2 - Jagga Smith
3 - Finn O’Sullivan
4 - Harvey Langford
5 - Sid Draper
6 - Sam Lalor
7 - Murphy Reid
8 - Josh Smillie
9 - Harry Armstrong
10 - Leo Lombard (Suns)
11 - Tobie Travaglia
12 - Alixzander Tauru
13 - Luke Trainor
14 - Bo Allan
15 - Isaac Kako (Ess)
16 - Jobe Shanahan
17 - Taj Hotton
18 - Xavier Lindsay
19 - Sam Marshall (Bris)
20 - Jack Whitlock

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The Kako talk sounds a lot like clubs trying to scare the bombers into trading 9 pre draft to the clubs above them in the order but if you take a step back and look at it objectively it’s pretty unlikely he gets a bid pre pick 9.

Saints don’t have a pressing need for Kako and the Dees are screaming out for mids/key forward with the players they have lost over the past 24 months and could potentially lose in the next 12.

Kako had a great year but also didn’t play any of the finals series with an injury and also hasn’t done any of the combine testing. History shows that kind of background generally has players slide a little.

Generally clubs don’t bid for the sake of bidding unless they genuinely want that player at that pick, list managers and recruiters know that acting in poor faith comes back to bite you further down the line. IMO it’s good business by Dees and Saints to threaten the bid and see if Essendon blink (new list manager without any history with his cohort) but the truth is Essendon won’t make any trade for pick 9 until draft night and they will have multiple contingencies in place in the event Dees or Saints are serious.

Will be a very interesting first round.

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