No necessarily, especially if they have two selections. As the discount does change over the rounds.
You’d just reduce the fixed discount by 20% as well I guess.
The percentage never changes, it just goes from 20% to a fixed rate as of pick 19.
Not a massive deal either way. Hopefully the rebalanced points next year level things out a bit.
It would now be smarter for nobody to bid on Kako until very late in the first round. We are sitting there waiting for a bid so we can trade back in, if it doesn’t come other clubs get the players they want while we are left waiting.
we can trade back in at any moment, but its more on whether anyone wants to trade with us.
IF we hold 28 + 31 on the night could use 28 + a future pick to trade up before the bid comes.
If we trade them out pre draft, were likely stronger to manage a bid, but maybe harder to trade up before a bid unless the other club wants futures.
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One thing I will say is that while this year’s draft is great, it’s not a megastar top end. The strength of this year’s draft is in the evenness and the depth. It’s got a lot of kids that are going to be very good AFL players. But I don’t see a ‘2018 like’ top end where there a guns everywhere. Further to this, all the KPP guys this year have something in their game that leaves a lot of room for doubt.
For example, many in here are wanting to trade up for Shanahan due to his VFL exploits. In my opinion, it would not be a surprise for him to go post 30 on draft night. There are a lot of limitations in his game, that might prove greater than his assets. As we all know, the gap between AFL and the second tier is enormous, and I have concerns whether he - or in fact many of this year’s KPPs - can make that jump.
In my opinion, next year has a better top end. Kids like Sharp, Greeves and Duursma all have some serious star factor vibes. I’d have them all in this year’s top 8 if they were eligible. And that’s without me looking too deeply into the other states, which are reputed to have plenty of talent again (WA in particular are bullish on their 2025 cohort). Our great contributor @noobermensch has also suggested that next year has some nice KPP potential that I haven’t looked into yet, which makes it an exciting draft.
So in short, I think having a heap of mid draft selections this year, and possibly a few very high picks next year, is a great spot to be in with regards to drafting.
A somewhat plausible dream scenario for me would be:
2024 Draft:
- Kako
- Gerreyn
- Urquhart
- Jacques
- Nguyen
2025 Draft (we could have 2-3 top 8 picks depending on how we go with a younger side, how Melbourne go with their internal disregulation and whether the Crows pony up for Draper as a FA).
Means we could take potentially 3 elite kids (with exposed form unlike 2020) and really get ahead of the talent acquisition before Tassie come in.
Then you have 2026 to see how the list looks and fingers crossed that Bewick in 2027 is a worthwhile F/S in Tassie’s first draft year.
That’s how I see it anyway.
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Some names for key position players that will be in and around the top 10 of next seasons draft, something to note down somewhere perhaps and come back to:
Louis Emmett (Chargers) - 198cm F/Ruck - Would need to grow more to play ruck at AFL level but his forward stuff is a feature anyway. Strong mark, good at ground level and has kicked a solid amount of goals in his bottom age season.
Cooper Duff-Tytler (Cannons) - 199cm Ruck/F - Again would probably need to add a few cms to play ruck at AFL level… more of a ruck right now in the Tim English mold, lovely mover, can play a bit like an extra midfielder at times.
Cody Curtin (Claremont WA) - 197cm D/F - Brother of Dan, much better in the air which was Dan’s one major weakness as a key defender. More of a clear an obvious key position player. Has excelled at both ends, played most of the season as an intercepting defender, then went forward late in the colts season and kicked two bags of 6 goals to underline how much more there may be to come.
Archie Ludowyke (Dragons) - 196cm F - Could be the most talented but also might have a fatal flaw. Lovely mover for his size and has forward craft. Kicks a lot of goals and kicks them consistently. Unfortunately prone to double grabbing his high marks, we’ll see if he can fix that issue next year.
And there are others that could push up into first round contention like Tarion Ah-Mu who’s a massive lump of a lad with nice skills and Aiden Schubert from SA who’s an accomplished lead/mark forward who only just missed out on the SA squad as a bottom ager.
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Thanks mate, we appreciate your expertise providing us this info 
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Love your work as always @noobermensch!
The issues I see with draft age key position players are about how their ‘whole package’ lines up. I feel these issues tend to fall in the following categories:
- athletic but not competitive/aggressive enough
- too short for their levels athleticism
- not good enough below their knees for their height
- double grabbing despite having size/athleticism advantages
For next year’s talls, how would you rate their package? As in, does their size work with their aerial and ground ball ability, and does their competitiveness / aggression allow them to maximise their athletic traits?
I hope that makes sense …
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How does the WA talent look? Curtain is one, any jet mids around? Thinking about Reid asking out and if our picks could turn into homegrown talent for the Eagles?
Well see. Its probably too early to say for sure. Cody Curtin is the one that’s had the most exposure at this stage and has shown himself to be a high level competitor with excellent aerial skills along with the height and strength. Most of the others are still skinny kids that can look a bit like bambi on ice at times. A year out you’re still very much projecting, which is made even worse for talls in the Talent League as they’re often relegated to playing peripheral roles until their top age year.
The problem with picking talls at the top end of the draft is that the bust rate is so much higher than other types… but equally all the best key talls were taken early so you’re damned if you don’t. Just have to cross your fingers and hope that you drafted a Curnow and not a Weideman.
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WA looks to be the strongest champs squad next season to my mind although its early doors.
Fred Rodriguez is one of my favourite prospects and I have him top 5:
There’s also Sam Swadling who is an elite talent for mine, played forward this season but will likely get midfield time next year:
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Weideman at 9 was a bust, but I think Schache at 2 the same year doesn’t get enough credit.
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What a name.
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That’s a relief, w.a need to start pulling their weight, they’ve been terrible at producing talent lately.
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Are people really thinking we need more talls?
Rucks: Draper, Goldstein, Bryan, Visentini
Key Backs: McKay, Reid, Laverde, Hayes, Ridley
Key Forwards: Wright, Jones, Caddy, Langford (at a pinch)
Tall utility: Cox
That’s 14 players already on the list competing for fairly limited spots in the 23 each week. Ideally you’d go 2 Backs, 2 Forwards (one who can ruck) 1 Ruck and maybe one taller utility on the bench. So 6 of your 23. Even if you say 7/23 … 30.43% , 6/23 = 26% …
Even if we don’t add a single tall this off season we’d still have 14/44 = 31.8% of our list as taller players.
I feel like more of these guys have been getting picked than this each week but also that as most agree we are totally unbalanced.
We’ve run into trouble in the past because Dodoro has seen a tall guy with skills, fallen in love and grabbed them with our early picks.
Smalls are where the game is won and lost these days - pick them.
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Its a fair question to ask, but I think you also need to consider the quality of those talls.
Rucks:
- Draper - coming into his prime, but will he ask for a move back to SA? Its been rumoured
- Goldstein - cooked
- Bryan - primary backup
- Visentini - super late pick, shown some signs in the VFL but no guarantee he’ll make it
Backs:
- McKay - locked in
- Reid - Mr Glass, assuming he’ll be the long term solution as it stand its overly optimistic
- Laverde - one and a half feet out of the club
- Hayes - looks solid in the VFL, yet to be seen if he’s AFL level
- Ridley - gun when he’s not injured
Forwards:
- Wright - ended the season out of the team, has been a disappointment over the last two seasons
- Jones - seems as though he’s been moved to a wing, never really took a game apart as a forward anyway
- Caddy - future star
- Langford - not a tall
So lets sum up the talls on our list that we can rely on right now.
2 rucks, 1 back, 1 forward. That’s it.
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Fair enough - that’s a fairly negative spin on most of those guys.
From my point of view I’d be disappointed if we didn’t use 5 out of 6 of our available list spots on smaller periphery players in the next couple of months.
2 fast and aggressive small forwards
1 ultra competitive/hard at it defender with decent to very good skills
2 Flankers with huge tanks
1 Tall FWD/DEF with a late pick.
Maybe a category B rookie tall Irishman or ex Basketballer.
WA having a strong draft contingent is probably handy if we are going to throw a heap of first round picks at WC and have a swing at H.Reid.
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We need more quality talls
I guess it was more of an exaggeration to illustrate how thin our tall stocks are, especially in the forward line.
Expanding on it further - of that list of talls we can probably say that Hayes and Visentini are in a good spot in their development. Hayes can expect to be given a chance in 2025, and Visentini is only one year into a longer term development plan as fits a ruckman.
For tall defenders, I think we’re probably okay for the moment. McKay + Hayes + Ridley with the outside chance that one of Reid or Baldwin comes good.
Tall forward stocks don’t look so good to me.
Lets assume for a moment that 2MP is going to get back to being a capable tall forward for us next year. He’s 28 years old, and given talls take longer to develop, if we were to draft a tall this year or next year they should be emerging ready to take over as Peter hits his early 30s, which is around about the right timeline. Even then we’re short on depth… I think we would ideally have someone cheap on the fringe who could come in and do a job in a pinch instead of being forced into playing Draper down there.
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