The defensive contested 1v1 thread

Good post

But whole team is shithouse

I’m choosing to believe that the Covid that went through the side in February has turned us into first half of the season Jason Tatum and that we will bounce back like he did. It’s the only explanation that makes any sense to me at all. Blokes don’t forget how to football like ours have


It is odd to have virtually every key player down on form from last year.

With the weak results, the players not running, the strange amount of injuries… It’s got a touch of the ‘2nd half 2012’ weird vibes to it.


I have a sneaking suspicion that our young midfield brigade that performed so admirably last year have little respect for a senior member of the team who was injured last year and waltzes straight back into the starting rotation despite not being willing to do the team thing.

Which players are we talking about here though? I’m struggling to see how that specific stat is showing that?

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dont interrupt my anti-hind agenda thanks

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altho good job on doing the research and presenting a thesis.

again how much differential is based on the draw across both seasons ?

Yet it’s not helped by the freo ■■■■, but would it look as bad if they played from rd 1

again last year we played 18, 17 and 14th twice and spanked 16th and 15th later in the year when they were on the decline.

That like it or not skews any stats in our favour. The worry should have been we were still so close to the top of the ladder for scores against, which has obviously ballooned out this season, partly cos of playing top/hard teams, partly cos everything has gone backwards.

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Good work @Paul_Peos

I’m interested in the opposite stat. Wins of 50/50 by forwards.

Obviously the guys we’ve conceded 50/50s to so far will be high up for this year, but are they the same guys that were high up last year?

I’m also interested in the number of 50/50 or worse contests that are being conceded.

How much of the numbers can be attributed to opponents, how much can be attributed to our defenders being out of form (and are they even?), and how much can be attributed to the rest of the side (either upfield or helping out/structures)

i wish I was more of a nerd, and put these into fancy graphs.

It would play a part, no doubt, but I don’t think it would skew the data to the extent you’re suggesting. Sometimes, you have no 50/50 one on ones against the good teams, as they just hit their forwards on the lead lace out. It’s not always a representation of how the game played out (although sometimes it very much is.)

Here are the overall team stats for Us .V. Our Opponents so far this year. Interesting to note that Adelaide smoked us on these stats, but we actually beat Fremantle on this front yesterday with our best numbers for the year.

Round 1 Total 1v1 Losses Loss %
Essendon 15 8 53.33
Geelong 12 2 16.67
Round 2
Essendon 23 7 30.43
Brisbane 13 4 30.77
Round 3
Essendon 20 10 50.00
Melbourne 14 3 21.43
Round 4
Essendon 15 6 40.00
Adelaide 17 3 17.65
Round 5
Essendon 20 3 15.00
Fremantle 14 4 28.57

There might be a way to reverse engineer those numbers. I’ll see how adventurous I get as the year goes on.

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I am quite easily excitable.

But not by this.

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Well, i’ve tried everything Dingus. I’m all out of ideas.

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Go on then.

Edit: retrospective analysis of our inadequacy can’t be worse than wallowing in our contemporary crapulence.


maybe a blitzcast spin off.

‘stats for nerds as read by dingus’


Well that narrows it down to a single individual :thinking:


I know, harsh on McGrath.


May’s win rate looks incredible but he often plays loss man in defence where his contests are often charging from a distance to spoil an opponent about to mark. It is a good advantage to have for building May’s stats. In fact, the additional man in defence probably builds some confidence across the whole backline which helps in the individual contest. In other words, the whole Melbourne backline benefits.


Most of them wouldn’t show up in these stats, though, unless he had a 50/50 chance of winning the ball (not just ‘killing’ the ball).

I dunno, I reckon Steven May is a pretty damn good one on one defender. But he won’t stay at 4.8% all year, mainly because atm it represents him only losing 1 contest so far.

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Very good defender but also one who is working to a coaching strategy that maximises his strengths.


Yeah, as I said in the OP, this stat is only one measure of a defender, not a full picture.

I dare say May’s stats look good on every other measure, too. And yes, he has the added bonus of being in a very, very good team.