The Forest from the Trees: A post for the stats nerds


#662

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7ymxlmVsAAuDfD?format=png&name=medium

Dons currently where our team experience says we should be.

Bomberblitzes favourite master coach, Brad Scott, took the leagues 5th most experienced team to 14th on the ladder.


#663

Art of the spare hardly mentions stats at all. Not that theres anything wrong with that.
Fascinating.


#664

Also shows how good Richmond’s system is the fact that they rank #10 on individual experience per game.

No matter what the individual experience, they play a role and can slot into the system without too much disruption to the overall team game-plan.


#665

Also Freo punching above their weight IMO due to another systems based coach in Ross Lyon.


#666

So…who is going to tell him?


#667

Richmond interesting they’ve still got plenty of shared experience- youngsters integrating into a well established team.

Ross is simply a marvel in his ability to gel a group into a cohesive system quickly (what one thinks about said system on the other hand…)


#668

Finally the answer to what a Bentick is.


#669

Hap or Choppy for me.


#670

Why is pairwise experience per game?


#671

The amount of games players in the team have played with each other.

This was covered in Footballistics, and as shown here isn’t a particularly strong indicator of likely performance. Does likely reflect whether teams have favoured a trade heavy or “grow your own” approach to list management.


#672

Interesting, kinda throws out the Woosha cohesion and time together excuses.


#673

Yep.

Personally I think an underrated idea (which I have no stats for!) is experience depth.

When Gaff got suspended last year the Eagles put Sheed in his role and were barely worse off for it. Ditto the Pies when Treloar went down and Adams stepped up.

Our best 22 looks solid, but we don’t have many 100+ gamers ready to roll when the injuries start.


#674

I mean you could statistically analyse it, but there are so many parameters to try capture it’d be well beyond the required effort.

An example would be: Say a midfielder goes down. Do you count depth as shifting a best 22 player off a flank into the midfield and replacing the flanker, or bringing in a depth midfielder as like for like? Then you’d have to calculate all those permutations for every position.

Edit: I know other sports have depth charts, but they are often where players specialize in one role. That is less common in AFL.


#675

Freo vs Norf is an interesting tale.


#676

That approx 100 game mark appears to a bit of a milestone too. I think the more of them you have the better, but i have no data on it at all.


#677

HPN have us with an elite defense, average midfield and poor forwardline.


#678

Agree on that.


#679


#680

No coincidence that our injuries have been nearly entirely focused in the forward line.


#681

There was an article on Fox Footy that ranked teams accuracy based on their actually conversion compared to their expected conversion - when taking into account the type of opportunity created.

While we are middle of the pack for conversion, I was fairly alarmed to see that we had (by quite a way) the worst expected conversion in the league.

I think - and please correct me if I’m reading this wrong, that this means we are creating the worst shots on goal in the competition and would lend weight to the feeling you get watching us that our forward line isn’t functioning well at all.

Here’s the table