The Forest from the Trees: A post for the stats nerds


#642

Looking at Squiggle. If we treat the loss to GWS as a rank outlier, and advance back to our starting position, for the game against StKilda, we advance so that our attack rates about the same or just below the Collingwood defence. and vice versa as shown against the 45 degree line on the chart.

The 2 sides appear to be evenly matched. It should be a cracker of a game. Subject to both turning up to play, so luck and the coaching might just be the difference.


#643

I treat all losses as outliers.


#644

This thread hurts my head.

I can’t figure out which graphs are jokes or not…


#645

Posted in the other thread, but this is the first time in a donkeys age that the stat blogs have us at a roughly level pegging:


#646

How are these ratings calculated?


#647

I think after teams my predictor is going to have bombers slight favourites. Kiss of death


#648

From memory Troy’s blog uses a fairly standard ELO/margin weighting.

I’ll have a dig through later tho.

That’s interesting Trev, it does look like a very strong squad that we’ve named. My feeling is that it’s the best squad we’ve had since about 2004.


#649

Tl:dr

Not the best kick going, but due to the difficulty of the kicks he is attempting gets an unfair rap


#650

Do they include kicking behinds as turnovers?


#651

Good call.

Except the difference was us getting stitched up by the “100% perfect” maggots.

Do any of these advanced algorithms factor in maggot bias?


#652

An oldie but a goldie for you Albert


#653

Well, last week was officially our home game. Just imagine how much worse they would have been if it was Collingwood’s home game!


#654

This might at least partly explain why we have yet to lose clearances but sit at 3 and 4


#655

Great stuff.

I’d love to know whether West Coast’s poor numbers are a decline from 2018, or reflective of a game plan with a different philosophy.

My working theory on clearances as a dodgey stat has been that sides value them differently - and your ability to win them affected by personal choices (particularly the style of ruck).


#656

Also, this good

Tl:dr the new starting positions have led to a slight increase in scores from the centre but this has been drowned out by the overall increase in defensive play


#657

yeah broadly sides are more concerned about conceding scores and the potential for shifts in momentum in game so are far more conservative with the ball. If we can get our ball movement right I actually think it provides a point of difference and potentially a big strength. Against Collingwood we very nearly did it, against Geelong we struggled a bit more but certainly early in the game showed signs of being able to dominate field position without getting the rewards. It’s a continual work in progress and for context, Richmond didn’t become the premiership version of themselves until about Round 17 of 2017, there was a significant shift in some of their numbers from that point of the season, prior to that they were very much an also ran of the competition.


#658

Surprisingly we beat both Geelong and Collingwood at stoppages ( Collingwood very convincingly)
but see: They are the top teams for “post stoppage contested ball” and rank as much as 20 magic units above us.
We all know Collingwood are supposed to have the best midfield in the comp. It seems they might have deployed more resource to the post stoppage contest, maybe to the detriment of the effort inside the stoppage, and are putting more players outside the stoppage, but not as uncontested receivers, but instructed to fiercely contest when the ball comes out.


#659

Crazy times we live in. I can’t ever imagine a coaching group saying to their players ‘don’t worry about winning the stoppage’ - but maybe that’s exactly what is happening


#660

Great article. Also highlights flaws in modern commentary - you watch the world game and the first thing they do is discuss the likely setups tactics at play. What do we get? A little montage of a star players before Lingy opines that “this will be won and lost in the middle”.


#661

Wait - you mean CLARKO isn’t God???