Not necessarily.
But all these things are incredibly lightweight unless you can a) see the numbers (ie 1st could be 200 magical points, 2nd 199.9, and 3rd 50…) and b) how they’re calculated.
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I reckon a stats nerd could reverse engineer the output and come up with the weightings used.
Our start to the season based on that.
16 (h)
14 (a)
17 (h)
4 (h)
15 (a)
We wouldn’t want to be anything worse than 3-2.
This table looks about as useful as the little numbers that light up on the screen next to a roulette table. Believe in them at your own peril.
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Hey if Red is on a roll, Red is on a roll.
So, depending on whose post I read Port is supposed to have the 3rd or 4th best defence list according to Champion Data.
Now I don’t give a stuff about Port so they may have a heap of star defenders I can’t remember.
But here’s their defence from Rd 22 last year
Broadbent, Westoff, Burton Hartlett Burne-Jones Jonas Clurey.
To be fair, when they trounced us in Rd 20, Bonner replaced Burton.
Broadbent has been delisted. Westoff is 33, Jonas & Hartlett are 29.
In the real world, not the CD world, anyone honestly swap that lot for Saad, Ambrose Francis, Hurley Redman Gleeson Conor?
Leaving aside Hooker.
The CD products and rankings aren’t worth the pixels they are printed on, and to make it worse they don’t offer up a bit of transparency. Total waste of time
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Trevor, to your knowledge, has anyone worked out a stats based model that enables them to make money out of gambling on AFL matches? Are there gamblers out there who consistently win money betting on AFL purely based on seat of the pants decisions?
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Oh yes. Definitely. Stats backed and human regulated. This guy is very good (the article is about him winning the nfl millly maker but is Australian and dominates afl too)
https://dailyfantasyrankings.com.au/public/article/jayk123-wins-draftkings-milly-maker
Thanks Trevor, I am intrigued. Do you have a handle on what motivates the stats modellers, like all those that are merged on Squiggle. Can you estimate what proportion are in it for the interest, compared with making money ?
Matter Of Stats has a pretty detailed approach mapped out that seems to turn a profit.
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I think there is the full spectrum from people who do it for the love of the game through to people who are purely financial. One thing I will say is that gambling gives model makers a good way to test their model ‘for real’. Betfair have a hub with a lot of info on this as well.
Right, here is the current prediction from Squiggle, the stats amalgamators, you know, not just CD, with their wierdo weighting factors. This is the result of data fusion of 12 stats modellers who have worked on their models for years.
Going into Anzac Day we will be 2 and 3 ( and maybe even 1 and 4 if we cannot break the FC hoodoo) and if that’s the case after Anzac Day we will be 1 and 5.
The Blitz Server will blow its mind and the media scribes will decide that the EFC coaching succession plan is shizen. But its not all bad. There will be learnings.
Surely the models don’t all have a Ess vs Carl fudge factor?
GWS just 3% better than Fark Carlton?
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They will probably swing a bit over the next few weeks, but at this stage I’m backing Carlton
Like I said. Meltdown.
What does Squiggle say about Squiggle?
We will farkin smash the bin chickens.
Bookmark it.
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There will be a playing interstate factor which causes the giants’ percentage favouritism to be marginal.
Similarly the swans are heavily favoured because of the interstate factor.