That link takes me to a picture only.
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Thanks, mate.
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Great post from Hurling People Now. https://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/2017/08/19/port-adelaide-have-made-liars-of-us/
The post deals with the old āflat track bulliesā tag. Normally that label is one of the flimsiest, David King-esque, pieces of analysis around. Teams that belt bottom 4 teams are usually just good teams. Itās unreasonable to expect them to belt other good teams to the same level. Dishing out beatings is usually a really good predictor of a teamās top 4 chances. Sides such as Richmond that eke out consistent low-margin victories are very rare indeed (and they finally broke this pattern by torching the Dockers on the weekend). West Coast 2015 are the classic case study here, persistently underrated all year due to that tag, yet clearly the 2nd best team that season.
Port Adelaide, however, are the exception. Even adjusting for team strength (i.e., you should perform better vs crap teams), they perform 23.4 better on average vs bottom 9 teams.
Essendon, however, perform better vs top 9 teams (the only by the barest of margins), one of only 5 sides to do so. Essington might be a statistically verifiable phenomenon.
Tl:dr - we should REALLY hope we play the Power in the finals, and Essington is real.
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I reckon all that graph shows is that itās all pretty normal and even, aside from outliers Adelaide & Port. Adelaide lift for the big games - and the numbers are possibly skewed due to home-ground advantage, and Port are just ā ā ā ā .
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What it tells me is that our forwardline, cobbled together over pre-season, is absolute amazeballs.
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A couple of issues with this, but pretty interesting.
That kind of analysis is tough to pull off in the AFL, we just donāt play enough matches for it to work for most players.
NBA analytics gives that much more of a run, lots of games, players regularly having their minutes monitored, can throw up some pretty interesting stuff.
I think it also shows how farcical some stats are.
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Agree on both countsā¦
First season since 2005 we havenāt lost more than 2 in a row.
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Thatās actually incredible. God, imagine what this place wouldāve been like if we hadā¦
We finished 18th for clearances this year.
Wait 2005? I had to actually double check that, only 8 wins for the year and yet the stat checks out.
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Yep. Weird huh.
Similar to 2014 we won no more than 3 in a row.
Ouch!
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Hey Nerds,
Myself and a few others made a brownlow predictor again this year - complete with a downloadable PDF for your viewing pleasure. Any feedback or questions greatly appreciated.
Cheers,
BIX
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Fantastic!
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Great work!
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Going to do a few more punter oriented follow up ones over the next few days, mostly focused on weird things the model spat out. The first one is Seb Ross:
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