The Forest from the Trees: A post for the stats nerds

Id call it an informed guess in that I had previously noticed him at the top of our 2015 ratings haha

My understanding is that its entirely mathematical.

I dont think expected score is taken into account at all, only actual scores would be relevant.

Here are our total team player ratings this year for each match:

Ess 232 > Haw 204

Ess 200 < Syd 247

Ess 199.7 < Stk 199.8

Ess 178 < Port 245

Ess 202 > WB 179

Only the st kilda player ratings dont match the result and both the final score and the player ratings are incredibly close. I dont feel like our players are being short changed here.

Fair enough, it’s not something I’ve looked into deeply but I didn’t think impact was measured mathematically, but sure how it can be tbh

I dont think impact is separately factored in at all. The player ratings are determined mathematically from stats, positions etc. The champion data guys arent sitting around giving players points based on who they think is playing well. They just record the stats, locations, results etc and the algorithm spits out the ratings. They judge who is best based on the ratings, not the other way around.

It may then be another rating system i’m thinking of. Maybe even supercoach points…

1 Like

Supercoach definitely does it.

1 Like

Oh good. I was wondering if it was just me vs Duursma in this game.

More fun stats!

http://alittleanalysis.com/shiny/AFLListDepth/

for @BakerWasAStar

WC v Ess (home team is top)

image
our front half turnover scores = 29

Ess v pies

image
our front half turnover scores = 7

vs crows

image
our front half turnover scores = 37 (season high)

vs dogs
image
our front half turnover scores = 15

vs port
image
our front half turnover scores = 3

vs saints
image
our front half turnover scores = 3

vs swans
image
our front half turnover scores = 15

vs hawks
image
our front half turnover scores = 8

1 Like

Score sources

1 Like

Thanks @ivan - very atypical win from us winning scoring differential from Turnover and losing it on Stoppages.

Caldwell going off was partly to cause - missing sitters 15-30m out was another. We produced enough stoppage opportunities.

good points, nevertheless our front half pressure game has improved significantly since the port debacle

1 Like

There has never been a VFL/AFL duplicate-score game (both teams, all quarters)

1 Like