The Forest from the Trees: A post for the stats nerds

Football Discussion Dustin Fletcher Hangar
1063

Theres a fair few things id be factoring in before coming to a conclusion like that.

1 Like
1064

And McGrath???
These stats must surely be incorrect!

1065

Just for kicks (heh) I tallied up the effectiveness of kicks during this first game between Mel/Syd - well, 2 quarters, anyway.

Mel vs Syd 7/03/2024
Note:
Y denotes kick resulted in retaining possesion
N denotes kick resulted in turnover
Only ‘in-play’ and ‘play-on’ kicks counted
Kick that results in no team possession is not counted
  • Target = kick was directed to a single teammate
  • Contest = kick was directed to a contest
  • Hack = kick was not directed (clearance/territory/blind)
Target Contest Hack
Q2 N N N
Y N N
Y Y N
N N N
Y Y N
N N N
Y N N
N N N
Y N N
Y N N
Y N N
Y N N
Y N N
Y N N
N N
N N
N
N
N
N
N
Y\N: 10\4 2\19 0\16
Target Contest Hack
Q4 Y N N
Y Y N
Y Y Y
Y Y N
Y N
Y Y
N N
Y Y
N N
Y Y
N N
Y N
Y N
Y
N
Y
N
4\0 11\6 4\9
2 Likes
1066

Fun Fact: The AFL dataset from the official website still has a column for Super Goals.

1 Like
1067

Fun Fact: did you know that Ellie Blackburn is leading the VFLW for kicks this year, and Scott Pendlebury is champion-ly leading in the VFL?

They’re on zero kicks, though. The VFL(W) app bizarrely has every other stat right, but the AFL code monkeys have somehow this season managed to botch kicks, only. I think the players are sorted by date of first game?

1068

It must a website/app error.

VFLW
image

VFL
image

1069

Edit: moved to list building thread.

1070

A bit was spoken about player ratings regarding Darcy Parish and Jye Menzie this week.

Which sparked some interest for me. I think the rating is flawed as someone can have a statistically minimal but subjectively impactful game, or vice versa. But nonetheless, here is some Essendon data.

Best Games (since 2015) by Player Rating:
image

Highest Player Rating (average, minimum 20 games, since 2015):
image

1071

May as well add this years ratings to the discussion

Essendon

1000001698
10000016981080×2400 326 KB

All teams top 20

1000001699
10000016991080×2400 317 KB

1072

Essendon gets no credit for it’s wins, it follows that it’s players get no credit for them either. Objectively, the ‘ratings’ are subjective nonsense

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1073

I reckon most people would list these matches as the best these players have played for Essendon.

Tippa’s highest goal tallies and most influential matches, ditto Stringer, Parish on Anzac Day, 2MP v Bulldogs.

That says to me the data checks out.

Parish being rated second worst in the league, especially considering how good he should be, is probably accurate.

1074

Do you not think our players are fairly credited by the ratings? Why? In what way do you think the ratings are subjective?

Heres a study on the validity of the ratings if your interested.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://vuir.vu.edu.au/37076/1/Manuscript-IDSPO-17-0227with_Figures.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwicwJewpMuFAxUGzjgGHcDjDr84ChAWegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw0WIpU_jZeHsOFfl3O8xcrj

1075

It’s rather damning that BJ Goddard is still high on this list and hasn’t played for us in 5+ years

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1076

Whats damning about that? Its an average of his last 87 games.

1077

You’re right, I misread the table

1078

cooked BJ goddard is better than the vast majority of players we’ve brought in, is an indictment

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1079

If I remove the 20 game threshold, I’d be shocked if you can guess who moves up to second place on that list.
It also moves Jade Gresham and Ben McKay to 3rd and 4th, respectively.

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1080

Jonathon Giles?

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1081

I’m guessing that wasn’t a guess.
But yes, Giles.

Had a decent game vs GWS in 2015 (one of his three Essendon games), yielding him 22.5 ranking points.

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1082

Don’t they include an impact quotient based on a players influence on the result?

Assessment of impact is inherently subjective

In so our wins we’ve lost expected score every time and been understood. The narrative has been about the opposite failures. my hypothesis is that if your team achieved an unexpected result against the flow of play, players in the winning team will be marked down for ‘impact’ thus reducing their rating