The Impossible Dream - wakey, wakey! - will we finish 9,10, 11 or 12th? How will the finals unfold?... Ladder predictor in OP


#241

mods gurge please


#242

You know this is going to sound obscene but I still keep getting this feeling (shrooms probably) that we’re going to knock off Richmond in that Friday night game later this season.

Makes absolute zero sense like most of my posts but its just the most Essington thing on the planet.

Its the vibe.


#243

This is the kind of over sharing that will get you far in the DJ thread.


#244

Gurge it’s over


#245

Gurge this and do one for the VFL instead


#246

Mostly we lost…


#247

Like virtually every year over the last 15, inexplicable losses to bottom teams have/will cost us.


#248

We won’t be a decent team until we overcome it.

The loss to Carlton ignited this run of form. Every year we have a loss to the wooden spoon side, which is a ‘wake up call’ we needed. If we had of gotten over the line against Carlton. I doubt the last 6 weeks would have happened.

So all these people that are saying ‘the Carlton loss is going to cost us a finals spot’. I think it’s complete bullsh*t.

Edit: I’m also tired of people saying we need more finals experience. Nup. We need to learn to beat sh*t sides first.


#249

Which is why we need to move to a new playing group who set better standards.

We were never going to make finals after the Carlton loss. We need to continue to bring youth on.


#250

So, just in case anyone is wondering if it is ‘mathematically possible’ to make the finals, it is. But it’s extremely unlikely. We’d have to:

  • win the last 7 games (including Port in Adelaide and Richmond);
  • win 6 of the last 7 (ie drop one of Port or Richmond) and increase our percentage by 25%+; or
  • win 6 of the last 7 and have a number of other games ‘go our way’.

The last scenario would have us finishing on 52 points and would require:

  1. Adelaide and GWS to win no more than 5 and 4 games respectively from their last 7 games, which is quite likely given their draws (giving them 48 and 50 points).
  2. Melbourne, which has a tough draw, wining against the Suns and the Bulldogs but getting no more than one win out of Geelong, Adelaide, Sydney, Eagles and GWS (finishing on 48 points); and
  3. one of North, Geelong or Hawthorn ‘dropping the ball’ and winning no more than 3 games from their last 7 (finishing on 48 points).
    • North have winnable games against Bris, Bulldogs and St Kilda but tough games against Sydney, C’wood, West Coast and Adelaide.
    • Geelong have winnable games against Bris, Freo and the Suns but tough games against Adelaide, Melbourne, Richmond and Hawthorn.
    • Hawthorn has a soft draw and is probably safe.

Even if a few things go our way, we’ll likely end up in 9th or 10th.


#251

Just ran it again, with a couple of upsets. Loss to Collingwood just means we have to beat Port or Richmond or preferably both. And pumping GCS and Freo has become more important. Still alive though. Adelaide playing well becomes very important, as they play a lot of competing teams, so having them not in tank mode is good.

                    W  L  D
  1. Richmond 18 4 0 140.1%
  2. Collingwood 16 6 0 117.2%
  3. West Coast 15 7 0 114.1%
  4. Geelong 14 8 0 115.5%
  5. Essendon 14 8 0 111.9%
  6. Port Adelaide 14 8 0 109.6%
  7. Melbourne 13 9 0 118.0%
  8. Sydney 13 9 0 109.6%
  9. Adelaide 13 9 0 105.8%
  10. GWS 12 9 1 107.9%
  11. North Melbourne 12 10 0 108.5%
  12. Hawthorn 10 12 0 109.6%
  13. Fremantle 8 14 0 83.2%
  14. Western Bulldogs 8 14 0 81.2%
  15. St Kilda 6 15 1 75.2%
  16. Brisbane Lions 6 16 0 91.3%
  17. Gold Coast 4 18 0 68.1%
  18. Carlton 1 21 0 65.4%

#252

Where do you realistically think GWS will finish? Because that will determine the position of our second round pick…


#253

We will finish percentage out of the 8…which given how tight it is…could see us percentage out of 4th!

Clark, with GWS they will be half a game behind us in 11th.


#254

Was just thinking that. We have a few very winnable games

  • GC, Freo, Hawks and St Kilda

Will all 4 and we sit at 11 wins.

We then need to win 2 of Sydney, Richmond and Port.

Not out of the question but tough. The games against GC and Freo need to be comfortable. If our % doesn’t improve, we’d need to win every game from here. And we can’t do that.


#255

All this verges on fantasy. We haven’t ‘pumped’ anyone all year; our biggest win is 36 points (I think). Even when we do score ‘big’ like against Norf, our defence leaks a lot of goals. I’d be happy if we win 11 and break even. Still think we need to give some of those players on the fringe a decent go to see if they have what it takes. Francis is a must for the rest of 2018 as is Long. I think Collyer should be told ‘Thanks for all you’ve done, goodbye.’


#256

Once Francis comes in you can double our winning margin, as every F50 entry for them immediately becomes a goal to us.


#257

Aarrh Yes…

Ess v Syd at the MCG
Will run rings around those midfield snails.
Sweet revenge !


#258

Etihad. Sydney’s favourite ground almost.


#259

Wk 1 of finals!


#260

Nope.

Fri night - MCG
Sat arvo - Adelaide
Sat night - MCG
Sun arvo - MCG

Edit. We’d better stop, before the Anti-Fun Police enter the thread !