The Inevitable Rebuild

[Tagger]

A brief discussion here on the value of top 5 picks, that may be of interest.

The Forest from the Trees: A post for the stats nerds

In the lead up to the draft and trade period, I am returning to this analysis of the value of draft picks. The chart below uses 2013 to 2019 national draft data to show the likelihood of a certain pick: Being a “bust” - play less than 50 games Being a “hit” - play more than 100 games. What stands out to me is: There isn’t a big difference in quality of selections from 6 to 30. There is a clear drop off in quality after pick 30. After which, picks seem to level out and become more likely to…

[Benny40]

I’m really curious about the spread of “star” players.

[Tagger]

This is based off some old data (players drafted in 1998 to 2007)

Likelihood of making all Australian team at some point in career:

Pick 1 to 5: 32%

6 to 10: 13%

11 to 15: 21%

16 to 20: 12%

21 to 25: 4%

26 to 30: 9%

[Tagger]

Based off some newer data (2013 to 2019). Here is the likelihood of a player making the AA squad at some point in their career so far.

Picks 1 to 5: 54%

Picks 6 to 10: 29%

Picks 11 to 15: 23%

Picks 16 to 20: 11%

Picks 21 to 25: 20%

Picks 26 to 30: 26%

Picks 31 to 35: 6%

Picks 36 to 40: 14%

Picks 41 to 45: 9%

Picks 46 to 50: 9%

Picks 51 to 55: 6%

Picks 56 to 60: 9%

[Benny40]

Really shows the value in pushing an RFA out the door if you finish in the bottom 5.

[Tagger]

Also shows how after the top few picks, the draft really evens out. Tells you that as a list manager that if you get offered multiple top 30 picks for a single top 30 pick, you should do the trade

[Benny40]

Is 16-20 the new pick 6 dud?

[Clone_Hirdy]

@Tagger

6 to 10: 13%

This is our sweet spot!

[Ants]

@Yossarian

@Ants

At the moment, if the club is serious about keeping Merrett, across 2024 and 2025 we’ll have a single extra first round pick.

Technically the pick for draper is a first and we’ll probably use it to get an earlier r1 pick, but I agree on your point. Rosa did say we were looking at a minor rebuild through the draft, and regardless how minor you can’t do it without first round picks. Either the club gets serious about it and trades merrett or our strategy is not a rebuild, it’s just using our picks in the draft instead of trading them.

I did forget that was technically a first rounder, but when it will be in the twenties it it is hard to think of it as a top pick. And the club did make a large offer to try and keep Draper (reputedly).

[Ants]

@Tagger

@Ants

@Tagger

So per Draft Guru, we will have the 2nd least experienced and 2nd youngest list in the comp next year. Regardless of what people think, we are in a rebuild.

If you’re not taking extra picks to the draft and focusing on it, you’re not in a rebuild. Come back to me when we don’t top up with players like Prior, Fiorini, etc.

At the moment, if the club is serious about keeping Merrett, across 2024 and 2025 we’ll have a single extra first round pick. We will have only got that pick due to Kako being an academy player who we could pay for with late picks. Otherwise, we wouldn’t have any extra firsts compared to normal drafting.

We have removed everyone over 28 except Merrett and have just let Draper walk for a pick. That sounds like a rebuild to me.

Sure. You’re just wrong.

But seriously, it isn’t us removing players over 28, its been natural attrition. I’d also note that Wright is over 29.

For me, a rebuild is multiple years down the bottom, and a deliberate rebuild versus a forced rebuild is a very different beast. But when you’re just taking your picks each year with the odd cheap trade or free agent, that isn’t a rebuild. It’s just doing what most clubs are doing.

[Finding_Nino]

Like North?

Carlton had multiple wooden spoons and number 1 picks and still Didn’t amount to anything

Bottoming out and collecting multiple draft picks at the bottom of the ladder for years is not the pancea it once was imo

[Aceman]

@Finding_Nino

Carlton had multiple wooden spoons and number 1 picks and still Didn’t amount to anything

Won finals and made a Prelim.

Yeah they didn’t get there in the end but more than what we have done in over 20 years

At least they had a go but Fark Carlton anyway

[Lefty]

guess this is confirmed.

there is no rebuild

[frosty]

Apparently so. Oy move to bring in Fiorini is interesting. (Or not)

[j_w]

The title of this thread gets me every time.

[The_New_Coleman]

Change title to “the evitable” rebuild

[Ants]

Rosa better be the most amazing drafter ever, because what he needs to do with a ■■■■ draft hand will require miracles.

[Heptides]

Can we rename this thread “the elusive rebuild”?

[HirdMentality]

The Undeniably Inevitable but stubbornly elusive rebuild

[Tagger]

@Ants I stand corrected. We just refuse to take our medicine and do a proper reset.

As always, who knows what the hell the clubs strategy is. Even assuming they have a strategy probably gives them more credit than they’re due