The Inevitable Rebuild

Kako and Bewick enhance our draft performance, but only a little. Right now it looks like Bewick will probably wipe our 2027 hand.

Our 2nd pick is last year’s, but in a weaker draft. There is a reason so many clubs were happy to trade out of it. In fact, if we’d accepted the Hawks offer 14 of the first round picks would have been held by just 5 clubs, with another 4 held by clubs who will use them to match players.

I don’t see any reason we’ll struggle in 2026. Back to 10-14 I’d say.

No Edge era?

3 weeks isn’t an era.

1 Like

I just wanted to post a few things I think we could have done last trade period, for prosperity’s sake. Obviously, no idea whether there would have been any appetite for these moves from other clubs, but putting it out there as possibilities. I’ve tried to be reasonably conservative on value, the difficulty is:

  • We don’t really know how much teams would value us paying the players’ salaries. Is that worth an extra second rounder? Third rounder? zip? Obviously for some teams in some places thats worth a tonne, as evidenced by Gold Coast’s antics over Bowes.
  • How much would teams value, or rather devalue, 2027 picks? For first rounders between U17 pre-selections and Tassie picks, anyone finishing in the top 10 could have their picks pushed back in value by ~10 spots. I.e. they become second rounders. Plus, how much are picks from a draft two years in the future worth less than next year or this year’s picks even if 2027 was an uncompromised draft? Certainly in the NFL picks from 2 years ahead aren’t seen the same as current year’s picks. I’m going to assume they’re given a decent discount in value.
  • I think Blitzers are overly critical of our guys. For example, Hawks chased McKay just as hard as we did in 2023.

Trades:

  • Merrett (including us paying his full salary) and our FF2: to Hawks for #10, #22, F1 and FF1. I’m assuming us dropping HH, paying his salary and adding in an FF2 is enough to get their FF1. Maybe it would also get us their FF2, but we’ll assume not for conservatism.
  • Ridley (including us paying his full salary): to Brisbane for F1 and FF1, and a wink wink nudge nudge for them to pay Draper enough to get us Band 1. For Brisbane, this is effectively paying a very late F1 and a future second rounder for Ridley with all but (say) ~$200k of his salary covered. For us, its Ridley + #21 for #7, F1 and FF1.
  • McKay (including us paying his full salary): to Bulldogs for F2 and FF1. Effectively two seconds for McKay with no salary cap impact. They still have their 2026 first and 2028 firsts to use on Butters, and the salary cap to do so. Gives them the KPD they were trying to get.
  • Langford (including us paying his full salary) and our F2: to Geelong for #19, F2, F3 and FF1. Geelong love good kickers, and they really needed another non-small avenue to goal besides Neale & Cameron with Henry struggling. Geelong effectively get Langford and upgrade their 2026 second about 15 spots at the cost of #19, a future third and (effectively) a future second. And no salary cap impact.
  • Wright (including us paying his full salary): to Collingwood for FF1. Losing Mihocek and Cox meant if Collingwood were still in on a premiership they need someone to replace them. Wright would likely do very well with delivery from Daicos and Pendles, and at the cost of effectively a future second (assuming they make top 10), they can gamble. Is also a good ruck relief option.
  • Caldwell (including us paying his full salary): to Saints F1 and FF2. This is just me assuming the Saints would want to have strengthened their midfield even more.
  • We don’t trade for Fiorini, keeping our F3.
  • I assume that Carlton would do the same deal as before, substituting the #22 we get for Hawthorn for the #21 we lose because our Draper compo becomes Band 1.

This means our picks would have changed from/to (before academy selections):

Year Actual Proposed
2025 R1 (Ess), R1 (Mel), R1 (Car), #43 R1 (Ess), R1 (Ess compo), R1 (Mel), R1 (Car), R1 (Carl compo), R1 (Gee), #43
2026 F1 (Ess), F2 (Ess) F1 (Ess), F1 (Haw), F1 (Bris), F2 (Dogs), F2 (Gee), F3 (Ess), F3 (Gee)
2027 FF1 (Ess), FF2 (Ess), FF3 (Ess) FF1 (Ess), FF1 (Dogs), FF1 (Col), FF1 (Haw), FF1 (Gee), FF1 (Bris), FF2 (Saints), FF3 (Ess)

Then, re-expressed in picks. For future picks I’ve used 2025 ladder positions. For 2027 picks to allow for Tasmania I’ve assumed our #4 is pushed back by Tassie’s picks and one U17 pre-selection, that all top 10 teams are pushed back 10 spots, and 10 plus an additional 2 for each later round.

Year Actual Proposed
2025 picks #5, #6, #9, #43 #5, #6, #7, #10, #11, #20, #43
2026 picks #4, #22 #4, #15, #18, #28, #35, #40, #53
2027 picks #8, #32, #52 #8, #20, #26, #25, #27, #28, #37, #52

Effectively we would have traded: Merrett, Langford, Ridley, McKay, Caldwell and Wright our 2026 & 2027 seconds and a HUGE chunk of salary cap for #7, #11, #20, 2 x late F1, 3 x late F2, 4 x late FF1s (really 2nd rounders) and 1 x FF2 (really a third rounder). So really, #7, #11, #20, 2 late future firsts and 7 future seconds.

Remember, from a points-matching point of view, those 2027 picks will actually be numbered slightly higher (e.g. #20 is actually #17). It also puts us in a position to challenge the AFL on changes to matching rules on the basis “we’ve already allowed for 2027 in our trades”.

We would have had an additional 7 list spots. At the draft, even if we don’t make any backwards moves like Hawthorn did with their picks, we could add:

  • Dovaston
  • Schubert
  • Thredgold (losing Ridley & McKay I assume we’d take a KP option).
  • Sweid (assuming we trade one or more F2s for the points to match)
  • BOB
  • One or two state league players, such as the Fothergill medalist who was taken as an SSP, Nyoko, or that WA one. Or some options such as NHH.

We’d obviously be much better positioned to hit the 2026 draft hard, and have more picks to match on academy candidates & Bewick in 2027.

We’d obviously perform worse on-field in the short-term, but that would just improve our draft position and give more kids opportunities. Next year we’d probably be looking for a Hodge, Lewis, Parker type player to come in and provide a bit more on-field coaching. Maybe Zorko or Dunstan?

Last weekend you would probably replace:

  • Wright & Langford replaced with Visintini (Schubert plays VFL) and Dovaston. Maybe Perkins with Sweid.
  • Merrett and Caldwell replaced with McGrath and Tsatas, with Farrow replacing McGrath down back
  • Fiorini replaced with SEH
  • McKay replaced with Gerreyn or Thredgold

Maybe one of SEH or Farrow replaced by the state-league recruit (if any).

Definitely go worse, but would be a lot younger and a lot more picks taken and coming. The forward line might actually work better, as might the ruck.

4 Likes

Adding this here. I think this team has absolutely followed the North Melbourne “how not too rebuild” approach. Hopefully from this point Rosa can draft much better than they did, which was a disaster.

I was feeling pretty good about our young crop.

And then I thought about the amount of good young players in the VFL. Not many.

I’d say about 3-4 young players who have a future.

There is still plenty of dead wood to turn over.

The more first rounders the better.

1 Like

Rosa has done a far better job in 3 years then Dodos entire tenure.

It’s going to be difficult but I have faith in Rosa

2 Likes

Moved to a more appropriate spot to debate with @dmaplestone and @whereswalla

Because you’re arguing the club has been rebuilding? If you think they have been rebuilding surely there have been actions you can point to that are evidence they’ve been rebuilding? I mean, you’re saying it’s undeniable we’re in rebuild mode - so presumably you can point to the actions the club is taking which prove this.

I’m happy to post actions the club has taken indicating they’re not rebuilding:

  • Since 2022 topping up with Setterfield, Weideman, Goldstein, Gresham, McKay, Prior and Fiorini.
  • Not trading Merrett or Ridley
  • Picking a coach with HUGE question marks over his ability to develop kids and saying they selected him “to get the most out of the list”
  • Not preferencing kids over senior players at selection until maybe 2026
  • In speech and actions aiming for finals immediately

Well why not define one then yourself? Set out what a club who decides to rebuild does to separate themselves from business as usual attempts to improve the list. Port for example played finals in most of the 5 years to 2024. Three preliminary finals in 5 years. What would indicate they’ve decided to rebuild versus are just trying to improve the list?

I’ve been talking about needing to do a rebuild for years, discussing them on here and elsewhere, so feel well positioned to talk about them.

5 Likes

Likewise but only on the condition that Dodoro had nothing to do with the rebuild

4 Likes

This was 8 years ago!!!

13 Likes

9 Likes

14 years?

Image of ♪ Those were the days... ♪

3 Likes

No wonder we’re all worn out and lost our marbles as supporters

3 Likes

For additional context, how sad.

1 Like

LOL

15 Likes

I’d like to see the measurement criteria!

Wipe all nine. Just be good at football

2 Likes

Deliver.
Engagement.
Embed.
Maximise.
Purposeful.
Innovation.
Brand.

BINGO!!!

3 Likes

Didn’t they perform beautifully for objective #1?

1 Like

That ticked every box on my wankword bingo card

5 Likes