Some fantastic insights by Shawry.
AFL SEASON 2018 Fremantle v. Essendon 31st March Round 2. 5.10pm.Optus Stadium, Perth.
shawryanalyst Uncategorized March 29, 2018 8 Minutes
Introduction
Fremantle get their first home game at the new Optus stadium and it’s great that Essendon have been invited to share the historic game. The Dons always have a strong travelling contingent, and the large WA supporter base will make for a great occasion. A surging Essendon overcame a 20 point deficit against Adelaide, while the Dockers showed little resistance, playing away to Port. Surely there has to be a reaction in front of their adoring fans?? 2-0, 0-2 or 1-1? While it is a marathon over the course of the year, nothing beats a 2-0 start. The Docker fans will give former WCE John Worsfold a nice old welcome back to Perth, but it won’t be for signing a new contract!
The Venue
So the familiar environment of Subiaco (175m x 122m) makes way for the ‘unknown’ of Optus Stadium (165m x 130m). MCG is 160m x 140m and Etihad is 159m x 128m. Essendon will enjoy the wider space afforded at the new venue and similar length to their two familiar venues. The ‘old’ Subiaco was a very difficult ground to play, and both WCE and Fremantle knew its intricate nature well. This ground is not as open to the elements and looks like a fast track. Fremantle have had an advantage of training and familiarisation sessions at the venue, whereas Essendon may only have the chance to do a ‘captains run’. It’s an advantage to Fremantle.
Short Review of Essendon v Adelaide
As I said, both sides were undermanned and both sides displayed inconsistency throughout their respective games. Round 1 can do that. Early in the game, Essendon looked indecisive, with a number of those highlighted turnovers off HBF causing concern. In the last quarter Essendon were excellent, and statistically showed what the future could look like. Essendon won contested balls 50-30, inside 50’s 20-9, tackles 26-13. Adelaide tired, and the Dons had the running speed in McGrath, McDonald-Tipungwuti and McKenna to expose that. Essendon were prepared to go direct and long against an undermanned defence bringing into play both the marking players and the crumbers. They looked far more effective than the ‘usual’ spread and possess and maintain ball movement. I have included this summary of the basic stats, comments and comparisons.
Scoring trends 2007-2018
It has been highlighted that for clubs to be outstanding and make a premiership assault, then forward pressure, tackling in the forward half, % time the ball is in the forward half and intercepts are non negotiable. Courtesy of Champion Data there is a very important reason for this.
Scoring SOURCES for the last 10 years show the following:
Centre Bounce 12.1 pts (2007) to 9.2pts (2018)
Forward Half Sources 37.5 pts to 38.5 pts
Defensive Half Sources 45.0 pts to 52.7pts
The biggest spike in 10 years has been scoring sources from defence which shows the reliance clubs have in setting up their scoring from HBF (not surprising the way the game is played). It clearly confirms the #1 priority ‘forward pressure’ has become the default if you have any hope of winning a premiership. The Hawks, Dogs and Tigers did it.The Dons MUST be elite in this area.
Statistic Essendon Numbers Comment Fremantle
Clearances -8 32-40 Need improvement Freo’s focus this week
Centre Clearances -6 11-17 Need to break even Freo’s focus this week
Inside 50 60-53 Excellent -+5 Freo 49 v Port
Inside 50 Against 53 Much better 50 or <
Score Conceded 87pts Wins a lot of games Keep Freo <80
Marks Inside 50 20-10 Outstanding Freo 3-18 v Port
Tackles 69-50 Very good Maintain
Contested Possession 156-142 Small win but + Freo’s big focus
Disposal Efficiency 75%-76% Just shaded Maintain 75% +
Scoring shots. 29-27 Be around 30 Freo 16 shots v Port
Injuries
The Dons may have dodged a bullet with Merrett responding well during the week. The club is likely to take two travelling emergencies, and may even wait for the affects of travel and how Zach wakes up after a good night sleep. 23 rounds to go. He will play if 100%. Fantasia, Colyer, Francis, Gleeson, Laverde, Ambrose, and Myers are still missing.
The Dockers are better placed with Stephen Hill facing a fitness test, Lee Spurr missing from defence and of course Harley Bennell.
Selection
The Dons opted for no change to a winning combination. At times they may have looked a bit top heavy with Stewart, Hooker, Daniher and Begley so there would have been consideration for Mark Baguley to add some defensive options up against Walters, Ballantyne and Matera. I am please that young Redman is around the mark, so hopefully these talented young players continue to be blooded.
Some very good ‘ins’ for Fremantle wth Bulldogs premiership hero Joel Hamling giving the Dockers some defensive cover against the Dons talls. Stephen Hill is a great addition to an already classy midfiled and Wesley College’s captain, APS midfielder, Adam Cerra plays his first game. He was selection #5, a natural mid that will go forward and at 187cm and 82kg is the perfect build for the modern day midfileder. In case you were interested , he can really play. He teams up with Haileybury College’s captain Andrew Brayshaw as the future of Fremantle’s midfiled. So a real APS flavour from the Melbourne school system, but just get the feeling the young McGrath lad from Brighton Grammar will look forward to catching up with some of his old school adversaries!
Fremantle
Fremantle have some A grade midfielders and decent ball users out of the defensive 50 in Ryan, Wilson (from GWS) and Blakely. Essendon people viewing them as ‘no names’ will get a shock. Sandilands, Fyfe, Neale, B. Hill, Mundy and S. Hill are A grade. Stephen Hill is very close and his inclusion adds significant run and class. That is a serious midfield.
I like to look at one particular area each week where Essendon may gain an advantage. Port Adelaide’s two half back flankers, in Bonner and Harlett, gained 689 m and 620m respectively. Given that Walters and Ballantyne can apply excellent forward pressure, this is an outstanding effort. In reply Luke Ryan from Fremantle managed 479m gained. Essendon have great running options back of centre square and it they put those numbers up, then Fremantle’s defence will be under a lot of pressure.
Fremantle have five 30yo+ players and key lynchpin Michael Johnson is not the wonderful intercept player he was.
Fyfe played mid, and will push forward. He may actually rotate through there with David Mundy. They are both class players. Port sent Wines and Powell-Pepper to Fyfe at stoppages. This was a very good tactic. So many midfield challenges for the Dons.
Fremantle coughed up 10.9.69 from turnovers due to a combination of their own errors and Port’s pressure. Essendon can expose them if they apply pressure as they did in the final term last week.
Fremantle have the potential to be very dangerous at ground level with Walters, Ballantyne and Matera, but generally their forward line lacked shape and organisation. It would be no surprise to see Fyfe and Mundy changing at full forward to add class to the attack.
Bellchambers was great on Jacobs and last year gave a wonderful performance against Ryder. He and Stewart have to negate Sandilands’ hits to advantage AND be very proactive pushing forward on him.
Don’t let Ross Lyon control the stoppages and the tempo of the game. He’s a master.
Let’s not revisit the 38 possession game by B. Hill last time in Perth. Last week he was really closed down by young Barry from Port, and only had 15 touches. He was last year’s B&F and under the ‘20% rule’, if Essendon minimise Fyfe and the run of Hill, they may well be 2-0. What a start.
Essendon do not have the options available to ‘do an Ebert’ on Fyfe (unless they pull a left field option in Langford). The experienced Goddard is playing well, but he needs to be a creator for Essendon to win. They also can’t spread their focus and concentrate on Hill x 2, Fyfe, Neale or Mundy. They will have to share the load, communicate very well at stoppages and assign a avariety of players. So it will be a real team appraoch.
Statistical Analysis
I am told by the mathematicians at school that trends from statistical samples will become relevant around Round 4-6. This is where club patterns can be plotted and more importantly compared and used as a basis for a strategy. It’s a bit early after Round 1.
As shown, Essendon have started the season very positively in terms of basic KPI. Fremantle for 2017 were:
17th in Possession
16th in Inside 50
18th in Scores
10th in Clearances and
Had a % of 73.
In the past 7 x 4 point games their average score is 9.7
Tactical Fatigue: Recovering mentally after a big win and then travel.
“The players with the highest mental load are the last ones to recover if the demands of the game are high”
So the internal challenges are three-fold for Essendon. The immediate recovery; most notably emotional and mental. The first win for the season will mentally take a lot out of the players. You must really look after the players that expended the most mental energy. The term is ‘drained’. Players will physically be ok but it is the mental recovery from the build up to the first game and the exceptional final quarter which will challenge .Fortunately, a Friday night game buys time. This phenomenon explains the phrase ‘didn’t come to play’. Then there is organisation, travel, hotels, meals, buses, acclimatisation and recognition of new change rooms, facilities and the ground. Do Essendon get a run on the new ground? Yes, a brief training session on Friday with fans invited to attend. Individually – although cleared- young Merrett has failed to finish two games because of head knocks. Now he travels to Perth; I’ll be interested to see how sharp he is. Essendon were expected to take a very conservative approach to his welfare, but he has pulled up very well. If Essendon don’t overcome ‘tactical fatigue’ (lethargy) they won’t win.
Summary and Tip
Fremantle is not going to be easy. They were extremely disappointing last week and it is Game one at their new venue. The Fremantle faithful are genuine, supportive and passionate, and 60,000 will fill the stadium. Sandilands, B. Hill, S. Hill, Mundy, Fyfe and Neale are six A graders in the midfield and possess a significant challenge. The knocks that Zach Merrett has suffered in the past naturally worry me. He will play. Essendon’s midfield is missing a few options and they will need this young man absolutely spot on.
The challenge to Essendon is called ‘themselves ’. A very poor travel record and led Fremantle by 27 points in Perth last year and lost. The coach has signed on; congratulations to John Worsfold. His first challenge is a travel game to a city and an opposition he knows so well. Eradicate mental lapses, improve consistency and mental toughness, and develop a style and system that doesn’t just ‘fall into 7th-8th’, but wins finals. He finally has only football issues on his plate. So which Essendon team turns up in Fremantle this week?
Improvement is not judged on brilliant passages of play down the outer wing at Etihad. Go to Perth. Be strong in your resolve, mentally tough for four quarters and play with application and consistency. It’s never a test of talent with this team. In the fourth quarter last week, Essendon won contested ball 50-30, inside 50 20-9, tackles 26-13. That was excellent. Start this week’s first quarter as you finished the 4th last week.
I still reckon the Dons are affected by having a few unavailable for selection. If the immensely talented Stephen Hill plays for the Dockers, I’m leaning to the home team’s midfield to create enough opportunities even for its dysfunctional forward line (3 marks Inside 50). B. Hill, Neale and Fyfe concern me, but at least Essendon will face a ground that they are more accustomed to (in size).
Can’t see there being more that a couple of goals in it either way.
So for me, it’s Fremantle at home, with the +10.5 start.
Robert Shaw 30/03/18