It was me actually. Not going to get involved in a whole new discussion about it, but it’s this thread:
I will highlight this comparison post
Edit: oh also, the extra work @DJR did at the end of the thread, which is probably what you’re referring to in the first place.
So - did we over-achieve and make finals despite our form?
Did we under-achieve against the lower teams?
Is it a matter of how we matched up against certain teams? Venue? Pressure in finals? Experience? Is it game plan? Or lack of fluidity? Are we too inflexible and dynamic? Is it crowd-pressure, or media pressure? Are final games different in a way that we weren’t prepared/geared for?
I could probably write another 50 variables. That’s the problem.
I’m not trying to explain it.
I’m saying it’s a thing.
We lose to bottom teams no matter how well we’re doing ourselves, and we’ve done it for years.
That’s all.
You can read into the whys if you like.
I’m not doing that.
all i remember is 2012 we were steaming then along came that melbourne loss. one of the worst i’ve seen in person. there was no hope.
For balance, 2013 we played finals and didn’t lose to a bottom three team.
Well, if you’re not going to try and explain it, and I can’t explain it, I guess we’re done.
I’ll leave this here though, since it is actual fact.
I’m very much a member of the “we play ■■■■ against ■■■■ teams” brigade, but given the arguments happening in every single thread I thought I might go and look at the numbers to prove that it’s true once and for all. Turns out it’s not really true, depending on the standards you expect us to play to.
For the sake of this post, ■■■■ teams are teams in the bottom 6.
Since 2011, we’ve played 29 games against bottom 6 teams.
22 wins. Average margin 44 points, 7 under 3 goals.
6 losses. Average margin 21 points, 4 of them under 3 goals.
1 draw, to fark carlton. fark carlton.
2012 was the best, 7 games for 6 wins, 1 loss. Wins were by 67, 25, 50, 84, 17, 66. To me, that’s two disappointing games out of 7.
2014 was by far the worst, 7 games for 4 wins, 2 losses and a draw. The wins being by 81, 15, 8, 8. To me, that’s 6 disappointing games out of 7.
So, we win about 75% of our games against bottom 6 teams in a period where we have won 55% of our games overall. A third of those wins have been by margins that would suggest we didn’t play as well as we should/could have.
I don’t know why you’s getting narky at me for not trying to explain it.
People were saying it didn’t happen.
You are saying it doesn’t happen.
Why would I try to explain why something is happening before even establishing whether it is?
Silly.
I accept your point about bottom six, but i was talking about bottom three (of four at a stretch).
It doesn’t look like it continues back, but surely losing to two of the bottom three teams twice in our most recent finals years, is still statistically significant?
I think the thing is clear. Despite making the 8, we were a ■■■■ top 8 team, hence anyone could get us on any given day. Also explains why we had awful losses in the finals games in those years.
fwiw - in each year from 2014 to 2017 at least one other top 8 side lost to at least one bottom 3 side…and I only looked at the teams that finished 7th and 8th each year, because they are the ■■■■ top 8 teams.
as @Killer_Mike has been saying. If we actually become a good side (which we haven’t been for 15 years), these issues will go away.
The same one? 
Can’t see Woosha bothering with this stuff/ not relevant to his process.
Unless Banfield gets dropped for of those two ins
Wasn’t narky in the slightest - I should have put in a few emoticons hahaha
It really was a thing for us last year, but perhaps not quite as big a thing as we Essingtonians might make of it.
In general, teams play better vs ■■■■ teams and worse vs good teams. This is why ‘flat track bullies’ are, statistically speaking, a rarity; good teams do flog bad teams. However, Port Adelaide through that under the bus last year by being ridiculously good at beating up on weaker teams but very poor against the top 8.
Our differential isn’t anywhere near as bad as there, however in 2017 we did perform better against top sides than bad sides. One of only five teams to do so. What sticks out in particular, is that our we scored WAY better vs top sides than vs weaker sides (defended slightly better vs weaker sides).
I attribute this to our inability to press properly in 2017. When we dominated the F50 vs bad sides (see the Lions/Gold Coast) we were abysmal at turning that into scores. This is in contrast to our brilliant counter attacking game vs the sides that were ‘pressing’ us. Interestingly, we saw this exact phenomenon in the 2nd quarter on Friday night. Thankfully, in the fourth quarter we were actually able to take advantage of our dominance.
Data from http://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=21538
FArk me who cares, create a thread about it and discuss it there. Can we leave this thread to the actual game?
Sure.
Screw Freo.
Goddard says Zach knock not concussed we kept him off the park in case of delayed concussion. He’ll play.
Brendon Goddard says Essendon teammate Zach Merrett said he was good to go after copping a heavy knock in last weekend’s season opener.
The Bombers midfielder was felled in the first quarter by a strong bump from Adelaide’s Richard Douglas at Etihad Stadium on Friday night and played no further part in the game.
Despite Merrett passing the concussion test, Essendon’s club doctors opted not to risk the star ball gatherer as the Dons kicked off their 2018 campaign with a come-from-behind 12-point win over the Crows.
Goddard said that Merrett was not happy at being restricted to less than 30 minutes but admitted the medicos made the call based on a head knock he received in the JLT pre-season series against Richmond.
“He was filthy then and he was filthy in the JLT game too,” Goddard explained on Sportsday WA.
“He was headless. He copped a knock to the jaw. There wasn’t really any concussion issues but being a JLT, caution’s always a good thing.
“He didn’t play that game and then Round 1 as well.
“Thankfully he feels pretty good and after the incident, during the game he said he actually felt fine and he did pass the concussion tests.
“But there was a concern with delayed concussion.
“In his own opinion he was ready to go but it was a doctor’s call.”
Merrett is expected to play in Round 2 against Fremantle at Optus Stadium on Saturday night.
Wheres the ■■■■■■■ team?
I don’t think it’s an accurate comment, but it has been accurate at times. I’m not sure it’s a thing to “always lose” to objectively better sides, which both WA sides have been for much of the past decade.
We need to develop a killer spirit v lesser teams. Winning by 4 goals not enough to build a good percentage. Aim for ten goal wins and take when we can
I’m surprised it’s that good.
