Worth noting that every year sees only 1 or 2 teams drop out of the eight. I don't believe Hawthorn is ready to slide down, so I think only North will slide. The question is who will replace them.
It’s also worth noting that teams only win the flag from 1st or 2nd place, or at the outside, 4th. Right?
Read an article quite a while ago, the last time when 3 teams dropped out of the eight was a fairly long time (can’t remember what year) and it happened only 2-3 times in the last 30 years or so if my memory serves me correctly.
I think there will be multiple changes this year. North is obvious and I think they will be bottom 3.
Hawks will drop out. Consolidation year while Mitchell and Jaeger integrate themselves into the team. I’m also not convinced Geelong will make it. Last year they did well on the back of Danger having his best ever season - but if he copped an injury they would struggle. I also just don’t see where any improvement is going to come from.
The Eagles I think also won’t be as strong without NN and Lycett for most of the year, but It’s hard to see them missing with 12 games in Perth and with Mitchell/Priddis feeding JK. But they could also miss with a few injuries.
Sydney
Bulldogs
GWS
Adelaide
Essendon
West Coast
Melbourne
Collingwood
Just out of interest, why do you see Collingwood making the 8?
I
I think they are far from a perfect side but they have got some signiricant improvement in them.
Their midfield in particular has the ability to be exceptional. Pendlebury and Sidebottom are obviously great players, Treloar will be a top 5 mid in the comp by the end of the year, Crisp/Adams/Greenwood/Aish/DeGoey are all young and will only improve.
Grundy is easily the most promising young ruck in the comp.
Their forward line a shaping up ok. Darcy Moore is going to be a player and Fasolo/Elliott will pick up the crumbs.
And although their trading was odd, I think that Wells makes them a better side at least this year (although not moving forward), and bucks achieves his aim of getting another contract.
As I recall last year they had a horrific run with injuries but finished off the year pretty well. I think if they get a good run this year that will definately help and I think they’ll do enough to sneak in.
Max Gawn says hello. Or don’t you consider him young?
I'm suprised on people thinking the dogs might slide out. Last year they had a bunch of injuries and smashed some of the other finalists. They are getting murphy and crameri back too plus have Cloke and redpath as cover.
Geelong were almost flag favorites before the prelim, touhy is a good addition.
West coast are always good and have added Mitchell who will still be a gun giving them 4 A grade mids.
Essendon 93, Hawks 08 are 2 examples of teams winning a flag before time and didn't make finals the following year
Laughing at the people thinking Hawthorn will still be good. They won’t play finals imo.
Flag favourites: GWS WB Syd
Top 4 contenders: WCE Ade Geel
Top 8 contenders: Ess Melb StK Fre Coll Haw Port
Bottom 4 contenders: Carl Bris Nth GCS Rich
Laughing at the people thinking Hawthorn will still be good. They won't play finals imo.
Flag favourites: GWS WB Syd
Top 4 contenders: WCE Ade Geel
Top 8 contenders: Ess Melb StK Fre Coll Haw Port
Bottom 4 contenders: Carl Bris Nth GCS Rich
I have a lot of doubt about GC. But remember that they played 2016 with half their team missing, and the whole place in disarray.
Laughing at the people thinking Hawthorn will still be good. They won't play finals imo.
Flag favourites: GWS WB Syd
Top 4 contenders: WCE Ade Geel
Top 8 contenders: Ess Melb StK Fre Coll Haw Port
Bottom 4 contenders: Carl Bris Nth GCS Rich
I have a lot of doubt about GC. But remember that they played 2016 with half their team missing, and the whole place in disarray.
Yep, should be much better. Just don’t think they’re a contender for the 8. Probs be out of the bottom 4.
Worth noting that every year sees only 1 or 2 teams drop out of the eight. I don't believe Hawthorn is ready to slide down, so I think only North will slide. The question is who will replace them.
It’s also worth noting that teams only win the flag from 1st or 2nd place, or at the outside, 4th. Right?
Read an article quite a while ago, the last time when 3 teams dropped out of the eight was a fairly long time (can’t remember what year) and it happened only 2-3 times in the last 30 years or so if my memory serves me correctly.
So yeah
and once the first ball is bounced, that history means nothing
Was the most recent survey of coaches expectations is that we are likely to make the eight? I think we’ll be like a 8-12 level side for the first half of the season and then build to get into the eight and finish 5 or 6 as the team comes more together (which is something that is going to take time). The easy draw is worth a few wins which is going to push up us a few spots. But make the finals, I would be expecting us to break the finals drought and make the second week. It would be great to get a bonus win that week but prelims is as far as I can see us go.
Laughing at the people thinking Hawthorn will still be good. They won't play finals imo.
Flag favourites: GWS WB Syd
Top 4 contenders: WCE Ade Geel
Top 8 contenders: Ess Melb StK Fre Coll Haw Port
Bottom 4 contenders: Carl Bris Nth GCS Rich
I have a lot of doubt about GC. But remember that they played 2016 with half their team missing, and the whole place in disarray.
They will be a very interesting team to keep an eye on this year. Their spine is one of the best going around and if they have a better run with injuries like you say they are dangerous. Still reckon they’ll just miss out on the 8 but they’ll be no pushover.
I'm in a drafting fantasy league so I've been going around other clubs boards lurking to see who they think is best 22 and which youngsters will improve. And the level of optimism and way they talk about their chances is very similar to here. Their older players will hang on or find some of their better form. Their youngsters will come on. Good runs with injuries. New recruits will have an impact. Game plans will be better and the team will jell. At St Kilda, Melbourne, Suns, Collingwood, Port, Fremantle and Richmond (them slightly less) it is the same story as us. The exceptions are North, Brisbane and Carlton fans.
So I’ve become a little more lid on about ourselves. I think we’re a final chance, but I also think the competition is huge. Our draw will help us, but we’ll need lots to hold right. And of course our predictions about multiple youngsters will need to bear fruit. Eg, for all our optimism about our forward line, probably only one 2017 starter (JD) was playing in our F50 at the start of 2016…
But there will be spots in the eight for grabs. North is a given. Hawthorn won 6 games by less than 6 points, lost their best two players + Hill and don’t have much young talent. Even with Roughead back I see them falling. Bulldogs may have a hangover. And someone will have a bad injury run.
What I took from this post most Ants, is the shock that the Sun’s have a fans forum. That must be about 5 blokes going back and forth.
I'm in a drafting fantasy league so I've been going around other clubs boards lurking to see who they think is best 22 and which youngsters will improve. And the level of optimism and way they talk about their chances is very similar to here. Their older players will hang on or find some of their better form. Their youngsters will come on. Good runs with injuries. New recruits will have an impact. Game plans will be better and the team will jell. At St Kilda, Melbourne, Suns, Collingwood, Port, Fremantle and Richmond (them slightly less) it is the same story as us. The exceptions are North, Brisbane and Carlton fans.
So I’ve become a little more lid on about ourselves. I think we’re a final chance, but I also think the competition is huge. Our draw will help us, but we’ll need lots to hold right. And of course our predictions about multiple youngsters will need to bear fruit. Eg, for all our optimism about our forward line, probably only one 2017 starter (JD) was playing in our F50 at the start of 2016…
But there will be spots in the eight for grabs. North is a given. Hawthorn won 6 games by less than 6 points, lost their best two players + Hill and don’t have much young talent. Even with Roughead back I see them falling. Bulldogs may have a hangover. And someone will have a bad injury run.
What I took from this post most Ants, is the shock that the Sun’s have a fans forum. That must be about 5 blokes going back and forth.
Hawks have a terrible midfield, Will see them drop more games, Losing Mitchell is massive, By far their most influential player. (Also a massive cnut)
Geelong aren’t as good as people think, They have Dangerwood and then B graders. Enright and Bartel gone hurts, Toooheyyy isn’t that good. Lonergan is cooked and Taylor is on the decline. Besides Hawkins they ain’t got much forward.
Injuries will play a big part.
I agree, these three will fall out with a few injuries to any of their key playmakers.
Well there were 11 other teams that conducted programs with medium or high levels of supplement use and lacked a single point of accountability who should be due for their sanctions anytime soon …
Well there were 11 other teams that conducted programs with medium or high levels of supplement use and lacked a single point of accountability who should be due for their sanctions anytime soon ...
Interesting reminder of that point … wonder if Ninthmond & / or Hawthorn were among them?
