The bias in the HTB decisions were a disgrace. About 3 times our players just get tackled immediately and get pinged. Hurley clear handball out and got pinged. There was one where the Adelaide player completely fresh aired it while being tackled, play on. Corruption.
I honestly don’t believe it’s planned but I do strongly believe there is a massive cognitive bias towards the better teams.
But some umpires (Pannell) are just ■■■■■
As soon as his name came up for this week, I tuned out. The worst thing is that so many of us expected this.
Glad I didn’t stay up and waste my time this week. Pannell is not worth my attention.
RIvals the NBA for how easily the umps can influence the outcome of games.
I agree with most of your post about inconsistent htb but hurley one was defo a throw.
Needs a Royal Commission.
Frees 21 to 14 again last night.
I again acknowledge the umpires have a tough gig, but cognitive bias is also real.
One way to settle this ; can anyone access a breakdown of frees for and against in games and match this to umpires?
I’m assuming that our total frees for and against are roughly equal over the season to date, as they usually are.
I do know our last two Pannell games have been extremely lopsided counts - 3:2 ratio against or thereabouts.
This may indicate a serious issue, or prove we’re all subjective wankers- useful to know
By my calcs the Crows got two free goals from umpiring errors and we lost two good scoring shots (Daniher, chopping of the arms on Heppell) and a goal from Tippa.
Just how long does a player get to get rid of the ball? We get about 2 cat and dog count and Adelaide much, much,
longer. I’m just asking for some clarity and consistency from the umps, that’s all?
It’s always depended on the player. I use the timeframe as a fraction of a “Chris Judd”. As in Chris Judd got however long he needed but others may only get 1/2 a Chris Judd. Again it’s a cognitive bias towards better players/teams.
Been going on for years but now due to wall to wall betting everywhere the fact that the lowest paid people on the ground have the best opportunity to influence the results cries out for a vigilant process to ensure that the integrity of the game is preserved.
However, given the people who run the AFL and particularly the “Integrity Commission” one doubts whether the “fairness” of a result is of any concern to them
I thought I’d answer my own question about this season’s umpiring.
Rd For Ag Result Umpire
1 20 16 W
2 27 25 W Jeffreys, Fisher
3 14 21 L Pannell, Jeffreys, Fisher
4 15 17 L
5 9 9 W
6 18 17 L
7 12 21 L Pannell
8 30 19 W Fisher !!
9 18 15 W
10 15 18 L
11 18 19 L Fisher
12 14 17 W
14 18 18 L
15 16 26 L Jeffreys
16 16 22 W Jeffreys
17 14 11 W
18 22 22 W Pannell, Fisher
19 16 21 L
20 20 17 W
21 14 21 L Pannell
Total 346 372
So; We are performing badly in the Frees For vs Frees Against overall this year.
There have been 7 games with a significantly skewed Free Kick count we’ve played in this year. Rounds 3, 7, 8 , 15, 16, 19, & 21. All with a plus or minus of more than 25%.
6 of those have gone against us.
I’ve included the individual umpires where they may be relevant. (All of our games they officiated in)
Pannell - 4 total - 3 significant Free kick deficits against us.
Fisher - 5 total - only 1 deficit AND our only significant Frees For of the year. !!!
Jeffreys - a surprise here - 4 in total - 3 significant deficits/
Of our 6 games with big counts against us Pannell and / or Jefreys umpired 5 of them.
I’ll go and get my tin foil hat.
So when Pannell umpires we average 15.5 for, 21.3 against, when he isn’t it’s 17.8 for, 17.9 against.
Our average free kick differential when he umpires is -5.8, when he doesn’t it’s -0.1.
From that small dataset we can say that Pannell is worth -5.7 free kicks per game.
Thanks for digging this out. Based on these numbers, we see:
Maggots For Against Ratio
Pannell+ 169 196 1.2
Others 177 176 1.0
As we know, the maggots are good at doing the evening-up of the stats eg by giving us frees in the backline late in the game. The Panell crew don’t have to worry about this.
It is even more pronounced in our losses:
Maggots For Against Ratio
Others 82 91 1.1
Pannell+ 74 108 1.5
That’s a 50% differential when those Rsoles officiate in our losses. That works out an extra seven frees per game in those losses. And of course, this raw statistic doesn’t show where those were given, what momentum was killed, how many frees we should have got but didn’t, etc etc.
So it’s pretty clear that when the AFL wants a predetermined outcome which maggots will get the job.
Does anybody have a source for q by q free kick stats?
and the 22-22 in the North match does not reflect where and when each teams frees were paid
The other one worth noting is Williamson, #22 from last night; a young ■■■■ who seems to hate us and will probably fark us for years to come. AFAIK is a Perth bloke who also screwed us over on a few occassions against Freo, unsurprisingly
I want to know why Howletts tackle was dangerous?
Because it was one of those naughty 34 cheaters who did it!!1one!1
Memo to umpires.
The Adelaide players were holding the ball to the essendon players bodies when you gave all those free kicks against us. Get a clue fuckwits.