He’s 24, but he’s only played about 50 or 60 odd games of seniors (at either level).
He’s had two full years off after being mothballed in Preseason 2019.
And the last time he did manage to play, he was about where you’d expect for a gun junior who’d only played a handful of games.
Talent was there, but still pretty raw.
He’s about where Franga is in his development (for different reasons).
Not the finished article.
It’s not going to be another national draft because most of the top end quality was already taken. I’d expect maybe 1 or 2 national draft quality players at most. Now is the time to figure out who those players are to get in first.
I think we have been excellent in training players for their kicking to be not necessarily accurate. They come in as great kicks and a season later they kick to the opposition, over Walla’s head, OOF, etc.
So there’s about 15 kids out there who would “normally” have been picked.
The weirdness of 2020 has just thrown a huge random element into all of it.
There’s always guys who elevate themselves from late/rookie pick to first rounders in their 18s year (Clayton Oliver a prime example). And vice versa, guys who look like guns at 17 who fall off a cliff (cf John Butcher).
So those 15 kids could be “genuine” 4th rounders, or 2nd rounders. Who knows? Not me.
I’m with yaco though. The element we don’t have is formlines. So that’s what you’d want to see.
(Unless of course there’s someone we were absolutely kicking ourselves we missed).
Nobody is saying not to keep 1 pick for the mid-season draft, the debate was whether you take multiple picks. By your analysis there could be around 15 kids who would normally be picked. Say there is an additional 10 because some who went in the 59 ND picks wouldn’t have been drafted if they’d played U18 in 2020.
So 25 kids, probably ranging from round 1 to round 4 talent. That means if every club picks, a second pick is going to be in the 19-25 range. That is almost certainly round 3+ talent.
The kicker though is the SPP. If a club can have a player train for two months and rates them, they may take them before seeing their formline. So that 25 might be shaved down to 15.
IMO, much better to use 2 of our 3 picks now, and only take 1 to the mid-season. Remembering that if we have another LTI we’d get an extra pick then anyway.
On a more serious note, and leaving the “Essendon Bad Kicking “ meme aside.
The key take away from the Richmond approach here is long kicking.
That’s a bit variable apparently- someone who kicks with penetration over 50 metres is similar to someone who can hoof it 55-60 metres.
And please note, I’m talking talent spotting roughies as small forwards/backs only.
This criteria would be a change for us.
There’s a long list of recent late draft picks & rookies we’ve tried who struggled to kick 45 - 50 metres at their best.
Mutch, Mynott Ham, Clarke, Snelling Guelfi Hams, Morgan, & Townsend to name just a few.
I’ve seen players become better kicks over time in terms of accuracy but I can’t recall many who became longer kicks.
So the Richmond theory seems to be that you take a long or penetrating kick, and teach them to be more accurate & reliable over a slightly shorter distance
This seems to hold true in real life.
Short & Broad (…2 fat lawyers? Sorry) can each hoof it 60 metres. Wildly.
However they’re pretty good at putting it to advantage over 50 metres.
Even Castagna, a ■■■■ kick, kicks with penetration over 50 metres. Wildly inaccurate admittedly.
However his 40 to 45 metre kicks to advantage are acceptable to good, and arrive quickly.
An Essendon example would be Paddy Ambrose.
Though looking awkward he always had a long hoof on him.
And these days he’s actually quite reliable over 40 metres. Which wasn’t the case when first rookied.
Anyway I think it’s something the Club could put more emphasis on when trying to find a useful Supplementary pick
Can’t be right can it? We were assured our VFL list management and recruitment strategies were woefully under prepared- we’d surely miss out on any young fringe AFL standard players. Must be fake news.
This applies to small defenders & clearances as much as forward entries;
A 55-60 metre hoof to space on the wing is not to be sniffed at.
Even if it’s not particularly accurate, and comes back in, your defenders & mids have got more time to reset than our standard hack clearances just over the 50 metre line.
Not to mention potentially bringing your one out wings in to play more effectively
I want to select in the mid-season draft. Why do we need 3 picks? That’s overkill. If we start the season mid-table, then we miss out on the best talent anyway.
One or two is enough. Select needs now (eg small lockdown defender) and maybe an inside mid option.