He feels like the first distinctly Australian Prime Minister, one that wasnāt simply an Antipodean replica of British class politics.
Does anyone get the feeling that whatever steam the LNP had left just got snuffed out? Sportsbet started paying out on Labor at $1.16 today. Now this.
What?
Theyāre paying out already?
Just googled.
Gosh.
Yup. This morning.
LNP are going to get absolutely reamed down here in Victoria. There arenāt enough Qld seats to pick up to offset it. They history dude
Morrison was gracious, but I felt Shorten was in personal shock - and probably had to reject his spin doctors urging to highlight the Hawke Governmentās success as economic managers and as transformers of the Australian economy.
As Barrie Cassidy, Bob Brown, Susan Ryan and Wendy McCarthy have emphasised, the wider transformative policies in Australian society under his government are a big legacy ( which Howard and his successors have tried to wind back).
From my own experience, also how his government transformed Australiaās international standing for the benefit of Australians - the enlightened self interest policy. Testing, but great times to be a public servant working for the common good and occasionally being courted in international forums - as previously being seen as the lackey of the Brits or the US.
Bob Hawke was a truly great man. Heās up there with Curtin and Chiffley as the greatest PMs this country has ever had. Requiescat in pace.
Two thirds of the electorate have prepolled in the marginal seat of Deakin. If this is a pattern in other marginal urban seats, we could be waiting a week or more for the outcome. And, if there is a minority government, wait longer for the crossbenchers to show their hand.
There are big swings in safe seats. It might end up being mainly Victoria that does it but you canāt deny rich betting agencies going 2 days early at $1.16. LNP are cooked. One and only thing I can think of that will swing it back is if tomorrow the US declare war on Iran and Iran do something truly awful straight away.
Politics is a sport now? I donāt even ā¦
I canāt see a way for the coalition to win back as many seats anywhere else to offset what theyāre likely to lose in Victoria, but I suspect itās going to be a lot closer than many expect (or than it should be, given the relative competence of the two major parties imhoā¦)
I think the impact of the minor parties will be one of the most important things to come out of the poll. Almost certainly thereāll (again) be a record primary vote for people other than the two majors. If the greens win a couple melb seats like Higgins off the libs itāll be a very big deal (even though I donāt think theyāll hold the lower house balance of power). I suspect a lot of the disgruntled Lib vote will go to Hanson or Palmer (especially given the stuff that broke yesterday about the Rwandan possible-murderers that Turnbull traded a bunch of boat people to the US for) rather than the ALP, whatāll the senate representation of thge looney right look like? How many conservative independents will take seats off coalition types - Steggall, Oakeshott, the dude in Gilmore? And a lot of what the coalition do to respond to that will depend on who they lose - if Dutton and Abbott hang on but Frydenburg goes the Lib party into the 2020s will look a lot different than if would if the opposite was the case.
This is the least certain Iāve been about an election in a long long time.
Sense we are a bit Victorian in our assessments arising from Andrews big win. . Labor could lose McNamara to the Greens, might regain Corangamite, plus Dunkley.
In NSW Labor could lose Lindsey, Reid touch and go, Gilmoure a possibility. In Queensland, Labor could lose Herbert. The traditional sugar swinging seats in Queensland often turn on the local candidate, I reckon Ensch is a shoe in.
In the big swing seats, the Nats could suffer badly to independents.
Tasmania is a bit of a mystery, canāt see Labor gains in SA. ACT should not have an effect.
Now Albert and Diggers, what about those two seats in WA - hardly any mention in the East, but could mean a change in government.
Itās sad that kids these days only know him as the āold blokeā that sculled a beer at the cricket.
He was a true Union and Labor man, who truely cared about the Australian people.
If you have a daughter, thank the Hawke Government ( including Susan Ryan) remind them about the rights they acquired under the Sex Discrimination Act to their education, employment and where they were allowed to be.
If Dutton loses itās a double victory for me. No Duddon in my electorate (as put by 7yo jnr), and no LNP (telling marginal seat in QLD). Iām no rusted-on Labor voter, but the choice is easy. Hereās hoping.
And RIP Bob!
If Labor lose you can kiss goodbye future policy driven elections. It will all be disinformation and lies and attacks with zero policy substance.
ALP wonāt lose.
Itāll be a landslide.
Hawkie passing just highlights what a rubbish lot we have to choose from now.
I have always said never underestimate the stupidity of the electorate.
That goes double for WA. People here are dumb AND very conservative. They do not have any access to unbiased media (except for ABC) so are also misinformed.
I am betting the only paper in the state will come out tomorrow with some scare mongering headlines. The Murdoch media will too in other states, but at least there are the former Fairfax papers in Vic and NSW for a semblance of balance.
One person here told me he couldnāt vote for the ALP because Bill Shorten would spend money like a drunken sailor. WTAF?!?