Australian Politics, Mark II

Even the ASX hates the ALP :joy::joy:

Everyone just got a little richer this morning.

As I read somewhere, the Labor Party needs to address their policies and communication to rural Australia.

They generally have a strong hold on Capital cities and large regional towns, with exception to wealthy metro areas.

Forget the blaming of Queensland, the swing against Labor was all over the Country. If they are going to secure government, they have got to represent the rural areas of Australia.

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if you think whats happening now is the housing bubble bursting, youā€™re in for a rude shock

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richer on paper, but not really until they sell them.

yeh i would call it as prices are smoothing or flattening out. No capital growth per se. But prices arent gonna be cheap

Whatā€™s supposed to be the driver of this bubble burst?
Because rates are low, may yet be lower, and population is increasing.

Are we expecting unemployment to suddenly double?

Weā€™ve had a correction back to about 2017 levels, and my read on the market is a slow and steady consolidation over the last few weeks.

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jonovdp - Yes it seems there is a real divide occurring in Australia. Rural and outer suburbs vs Major country towns and inner suburbs. Young vs the old. Itā€™s going to be very difficult if not impossible to run a social agenda so the Government will play it safe and just run an economic agenda.

I think the result on the week-end makes local community and caring for your neighbours all more important.

Its exactly whats happening. 20% plus declines in some markets. Fools call peaks and troughs but the trend and magnitude already say ā€œasset popā€.

Watch out for seasonal adjustments. The post Easter property market has always been strong and this year was no exception. As we turn into winter the numbers and prices will drop again.

Yeah, Iā€™m not seeing 20%.
10-15%, perhaps, and again, that just brings us back to 2017.
2016 tops.
Iā€™d love to see 20%.
$1.4m properties on the market for $1.12m, but I donā€™t see that anywhere.

Election day is traditionally a poor one and they had auction clearances of 67%.
Now obviously there is a fair bit of clearance due to reduction, but even soā€¦thatā€™s pretty good.
Itā€™s been not terrible for a while.

But sure, Iā€™ll keep my eye on things.

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I think the current price declines has been from reducing foreign ownership and tightening lending requirements.

None of the price weakness has been caused by economic weakness which is still to come or wonā€™t come depending on your view of the economy.

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As someone that works in Community development in Rural Victoriaā€¦ the sense of community across these small townships is atrocious.

The maliciousness between young and old. There is constant blaming of community organisations for their townships misfortunes and that they arenā€™t doing enough. The lack of community leadership, including volunteering, non-attendance of town meetings and businesses who refuse give back to the community.

Mental Health, Family Violence, suicide, road accidents, drug and alcoholism, unemploymentā€¦ it is all rife.

Luckily we have a supportive State Government who provides many grants available to support rural communities. But rural communities that donā€™t have support from a Labor State Government, and have a Liberal Government that tells the community ā€˜youā€™re on your ownā€™ā€¦ I hate to think what these communities will be like in 3 years time.

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reducing foreign ownership is a good thing IMO. As it means better homes are more affordable and people will move into them and selling their cheaper house for those entering the market.

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Whatā€™s surprising?

New building construction growth has slowed due to financial pressures and the Labor policy may have only aided this trend. Building approvals have been down (builders have been dropping prices recently as a result) and this only leads to pulling back of construction including houses and units. Construction makes up 10% of the workforce in Australia, why would tradies vote Labor?

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Itā€™s possible I donā€™t live, or more to the point work, in a representative area.
Throw a brick, youā€™ll hit a new construction.

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Sydneys median peaked at 1.2m.its now pretty much right on 1m, so its very close.

Some suburban markets there would be down more than 20 percent for that sort of change in median City figures.

Perth I think has def seen more than a 20 percent decline.

Yes, but it takes time before the man on the street notices a change. Todayā€™s construction is evidence of yesterdays building approval numbers. The drop in building approvals now is reflected in say, 12 months time. Even then you will still see some new construction, but not at the same hectic rate of say 2016-2018. This slowdown affects jobs, plain and simple.

That makes more sense.
I canā€™t throw a brick at building approvals.

And I was talking about Melbourne, rather than Sydney and Perth, Vandrs.

Again, Iā€™m having troubleā€¦combining the idea of Melbourne being the largest capital city in Australia by 2030 and lower property prices.

Still, Iā€™m not a doctor.

Could look at Queensland too. Might explains some voting intentions.