Don’t compare Clarko to a washed up burnt out Malthouse that went to Carlton, the scenario is not in the same ball park.
Also, to say Clarko is in it for the cash is ludicrous, he took less pay when he was at Hawthorn so he could build the coaching group that the team required.
3 Likes
If we are talking probabilities … this sounds like like the most likely outcome.
Sad but true I also fear.
Sacking Rutten for Clarkson shouldn’t be seen as the issue.
The fact that out Club’s Strategy is based purely on ‘meander & hope’ is !
It is easy to look back and say Rutten’s appointment was a failure, but at the time there was good evidence to suggest he could have succeeded or at the very least achieved a decent level of progression.
There are always risks with every appointment that other untested factors could prevent success particularly with first-time AFL coaches.
What did we do to identify those risks be clear about them and mitigate them? Probably not enough.
If nothing else we shouldn’t move forward now unchanged and just meander and hope into 2023.
There is a good body of evidence available that suggests we are unlikely to progress without significant change and we simply can’t allow the emotion of ‘loyalty’ or ‘face saving’ to face up to the need for change.
Where is “Rock Bottom” ? Do we really have to get there first.
You asked.
In order of when they won a Flag, going backwards
Malthouse - Yes then No
Worsfold- No
Roos - No
Matthews - Yes
Sheedy - No
Pagan - No
Joyce - No
Jeans - Yes then No
Walls - No and No
Parkin - Yes then No then Yes
Jewell - No and No
Jesaulenko - No and No
Barassi - Yes then No and No
Hafey - No and No and No
Stop there because we’re back in the 50’s & 40’s.
I’ve left Bomber Thompson off the list as theoretically an acting coach only.
So 5 premiership coaches out of 13 managed to win a flag at another Club.
23 Clubs tried to go down that route for only 6 successes.
Discuss all you want about the various reasons for this, but it’s actually a very low probability a past Premiership Coach will win a flag for you.
Edit - I forgot Flog Walls - for obvious reasons I have a preferred blank spot even thinking about him.
Which makes the numbers even worse
8 Likes
While that is interesting, it may be that there is a very low probability of any coach winning a premiership … perhaps 1 in 18 all other things being equal.
A low probability doesn’t say enough in of itself.
If everyone else had a 1% chance of success and you had a 5% chance of success they are all extremely low and improbable but you would be 5 times more likely.
What do the odds look like when you take 2nd Team Premiership Coaches who won at least 3 flags with their first Club ?
1 Like
Sheedy - 4 flags with us. Zero with GWS
1 Like
Parkin 3 Carlton 2 hawthorn
Is that only 2 therefore 50%
Yeah, but we all know Sheedy was past it at that point. It was more a marketing role. Plus he actually did very well in setting up their culture. Look at the contrast with Gold Coast.
1 Like
I want to acknowledge the personal responsibility the players need to take with this dumpster fire of a season.
Bring in Clarko or whoever but the ■■■■ season does not rest sorely on the shoulders of Rutten.
8 Likes
The club wouldn’t look too bad PR wise if we sacked Rutten to get Clarkson in. They just have to spin this as an unique opportunity to get the most successful coach of the last 30 years to the club.
1 Like
Jeans 3 with Hawthorn, 0 with Richmond
Hafey 4 with Richmond, 0 with 3 other clubs
Probability looks even worse
1 in 4 … 25% fairly similar.
What are the odds of a coach who never got a flag getting one? 0%
Something tells me sample sizes could also cause you a bit of a problem with these stats.
1 Like
theres one dude in AFL/VFL history to do it and it was pre WW1
Parkin doesnt count.
Only one flag at the Hawks so didnt win three at his first club.
So if you flip a coin 10 times and it’s tales every time,
What is the probability of it coming up tales on the 11th flip?
1 Like
Washed up and burnt out? They guy won a GF in 2010 and then had his team back in the GF in 2011 with both years finishing top of the ladder.
Hardly washed up and burnt out. The myths that get made up on Blitz can be quite amazing.
His issues at Carlton were not about him or about Pagan, it was very much about those who ran the club and tied the hands of their coaches.
4 Likes
agree with this too. The players are the ones that either:
- present themselves in a state not befitting of an AFL athlete
- are too dumb to follow coaches instructions
- are too easily able to ignore coaches instructions without ramifications.
- are limited and not able to follow coaches instructions.
Ultimately, the coach is defined by the cattle that he has at his disposal, and his ability to extract a performance out of them.
Getting rid of Rutten is not going to be a catalyst for success on its own. But it might be the start of something if a new regime comes in and lays down the law as to what is acceptable and what is not. I bet Stringer wouldnt rock up to pre-season unfit under a Clarkson!
Ultimately the expectation of a coach should be to provide and demand elite standards of his players. The evidence so far is that Rutten is a long way off from delivering upon this.
2 Likes
There’s also an argument that now we’re past the days of pure man on man footy, those that have most success are the ones who have the best evolution on the current dominant style of play. You might only be able to usher in that change to the game once.
Good people management, enforcing high standards, etc are all obviously required too but for a coach to go to a new club and find success they also need to be able to reinvent themselves & their whole philosophy towards game style. I’m not convinced that Clarkson, who only had a W/L ratio above 50% once in his last 5 seasons, is capable of that.
1 Like
Malthouse was cooked mate and everyone could see it except Carlton, he was in his early 60’s and had been coaching since 1984…he was done and the results showed exactly that.
1 Like
Back to back grand finals make your claim pretty silly looking tbh.
The only reason the Pies got rid of him was Eddie wanted his boy Figjam to get the job instead of going off somewhere else like he was threatening.
2 Likes