Here’s a small start for you (I needed to do this for work anyway - I’ll post the raw plot without the corporate branding all over it!):
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That’s a great graph.
Very clear to understand.
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You keep saying this, and you might well end up being right, but I don’t know how you can say it with such confidence.
Perfect conditions.
Hot, ventilated and not a lot of air conditioning.
Yeah.
I know.
It’s pie in the sky stuff.
But I think it’s there for what Queensland have now. 25k at sporting events, etc. Gyms should be in the November step (if they aren’t already).
I think they got to the November step then thought, ‘how the fark do we get to larger crowds, etc’. The theory is, if they meet the November step, it should take 2 weeks to reach the Covid Normal step. But the active cases total will lag quite a bit. And we’ll have hotel quarantine by then too.
I think the Covid Normal will be greatly re worked by the end of next month.
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The difficulty is finding somewhere in the world that has done that without restricting movement to the point we’re in lockdown.
South Korea maybe? I haven’t looked at overseas stuff for a while.
Sydney haven’t been able to do it.
Queensland are on their way.
New Zealand are still getting their cases.
We’re going to have state borders open. Whether we like it or not.
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I just hope people realise that every time they loudly proclaim their political views, they contribute toward polarisation, which leads to nothing good. I can understand it in countries where citizens are actually being oppressed.
In our country, even if my small business fails, and I lose all my assets and enter bankruptcy, my debts get wiped, and my government pays my medical bills and keeps a roof over my head, regardless of which political party is in power at the time. There are many people who wish they had it this good.
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Their Covid normal is basically eradication. And nobody has done that once the virus has become established.
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I’d argue that the virus hasn’t been around for long enough for there to be a precedent. I’m not saying it’s definitely achievable, I just think that you can’t rule it out.
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Don’t worry, I thought about that as well, “damm you guys, you can’t go to step 2 because the caseload is too low”
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There’s never going to be 100% compliance. There isn’t with any law. It’s naive to expect it.
So long as most people are complying then we minimise the risk. But when most people are complying they’re not visible, so we end up with a bit of confirmation bias where the very, very small minority we see not complying makes us think it’s widespread and putting the population at risk.
I live in a medium-density part of Melbourne with a fair bit of parkland close by that I get to regularly. I reckon I’ve seen maybe half a dozen instances in the last month of non-compliance. Few enough to make me think the ones I’ve seen probably had a good reason (eg: no mask because of medical conditions or something like that).
Even then I’m probably having a bit of confirmation bias myself, in that I’m likely missing plenty of instances of non-compliance in my short-range travels because I’m not looking out for them.
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And I think the reality they either change the criteria from step 3 to step 4 to allow a small dribble of cases, or we have a step 3 1/2 that allows, say 10 people to meet inside that aren’t designated bubble.
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I have to say compliance in my area is good in the main. We’re fortunate enough to have lots of open space so there’s a great concentration of people in one area. Friends who live in the inner suburbs sent me some photo’s from the weekend and it was an absolute ■■■■ show in there.
What’s expected to happen as part of covid normal?
I would love to be able to just drive to see family who live outside of the 5km radius. Don’t need to go shopping centers, but just to be able to go their homes and see them.
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yep. and if every state isn’t pulling in the same direction then we’re not getting to our destination. There’ll be bleeding of cases into NSW as soon as that border opens again. and then probably the same in reverse.
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Well that’s the thing isn’t it - I live in an inner(ish) suburb, where lots of people are around at any given point in time anyway so I understand photos would look alarming to anyone not used to that kind of density. But when you’re physically out in amongst it, and you see the actions of each person or pairing or family or whatever in isolation - while maybe not 100% compliant - it’s absolutely no cause for alarm at all.
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This is what’s grating on me a great deal.
Especially the last month.
We have it good here! We have our faults (just like every other country), but we have low cases (European countries will wish to have the winter we’ve just had).
We’re getting paid (Job Keeper) to not be on the dole. We’re being protected against being kicked out of our homes for not being able to pay rent.
Once we get going again, we’ll thrive. It’s not a ‘snap back’ economy but it’ll be very encouraging. And there will be opportunities to do very well out of it.
Yet…
We prefer to tear everyone around us making decisions down.
There’s a farking President who told people to inject themselves with disinfectant, cleared a square for a photo op (WTF!!!) and is spreading the most ridiculous conspiracy theories. And he’s a good chance to stay in power.
There is a Prime Minister who walked into a hospital of covid patients and shook everyone’s hand. And he’s a good chance to be re-elected.
Our errors are bad. But they could have been far worse. And be mindful, this is our first pandemic. We were barely affected by SARS or swine flu.
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I think it’s a great goal.
The equivalent of Essendon saying we’re going for the premiership. Every year.
Realistically, it’ll tough to achieve. But if it’s achieved, we’ve done something that few others have achieved.
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So at what point does your great goal become delusion? Because any Essendon person who says we’re winning the premiership next year is deluded.
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