Well, I know it’s parse to quote yourself, but I think the below is pretty relevant. its looking more and more like we’re a long way off a premiership side. I still think that approach makes sense. It doesn’t cut the youngsters like they probably deserve, but gives you 7 odd 1st/2nd round picks + upgrades + a host of players on their last chance (Kommer, Browne, NOB, Kav, Hams, Dalgiesh, Edwards, Steinberg, Ashby) and Fletcher stays on a year. Between that group you probably have 7 delistings/retirements for next year. But there would be plenty of spots in the 22 for them to take their chance, and it will add a bit of desperation to perform in the side even if we aren’t getting wins on the board.
Of course, when I wrote it the chances of getting an end of first round FA pick for Belly were higher.
A huge huge element comes down to a valuation of our list at year end, and how far off it they are. If it is possible to become competitors with only a few changes, fine, do it. But what if we're realistically 4+ years away? If there is a view we just can't replace the reduced output of Watson/Goddard/Stanton/Cooney/Chapman/Winders/Fletch ageing, Ryder leaving, Dempsey/Hibberd/Belly's lost form, and none of Hurley/Carlisle standing up in the F50 with kids/trades coming through? Given we don't just need to replace that - we have to improve on that to get a premiership.
There may be a valid view that this team isn’t good enough. I’m not convinced yet, but we’ll see how we track to the year end. There is a little bit of a feeling of 2004 and a changing of the guard. That year several perennial finalists fell out of the eight, and Geelong/St Kilda started their charge. GWS are looking to make finals, Bulldogs are on the charge, Geelong, Port have fallen out. But we’re nowhere.
So if we are out for the count for 4+ years, we should really do a deep cleanout. From the tanking thread I wrote as options to do a deep rebuild:
- Wherever we have older players on the fringe of the best 22, trade or delist. To give youngsters opportunity. So Dempsey, Howlett, Gwilt should all go as they don't fit the age profile to be playing in the next GF.
- If we can move on senior players to clubs which might give them success, and us something back, do it. Especially if by using our salary cap we can get a good trade. So like Lake to Hawthorn - win, win, win. I'm thinking Stanton, Bags, Hibberd, maybe even Jobe. Guys who I would love to see have a premiership medal and if they can't do it for us, having given everything, and we got good value, let them go. Obviously a balance must be made as you need good seniors to guide the youngsters, so you wouldn't trade them all out. And only if they wanted to do it - if they want to stay here without success, fine. But consider it. Goddard and Cooney might also be considered tradeable. I would probably wait on Bags/Hibberd until next year (if ever), as I like the idea of the backline being stable for a little while.
- Look hard at the mid-age tier of Myers, Hocking, Zaha and Melksham. Decide if they are up to it, what they are worth. Ideally, this group would be still around to be the senior statesman and the non-champion core of the next push. But if any won't make it, maybe trade now while they have currency.
- If we have a surplus anywhere, trade out. Yes, I'm looking at the Carlisle/Hooker/Hurley dilemma. We don't need 3 tall KP backs. If there is a decision none are good enough as forwards (and I have personally disagreed with that on Carlisle) then one of the talls should go. Why have a best in the league #3 tall defender when instead you could have Stein and two good draft picks? Having a great #3 tall back is just not valuable enough to do it.
- I would probably let Belly go, as trading for rucks when you're closer to the window is quite common. Trade Belly now, use Smack/Giles and recruit some youngsters, and recognise we'll lose the ruck for a few years.
- Be more aggressive with who gets cut. Players like Kommer can't get 3 year deals. Pears should have been on the rookie list two years ago. If you're keeping a player like NOB around, give them some games.
- All the moves above will give a lot of salary cap space. Use that spare salary cap by either packaging it with players traded for better deals or target FA's who are in the 26 age zone and good. They should still be around for a premiership tilt. So like a Scot Selwood
- Target GWS. A number of teams have done brilliantly with deals for guys on their fringe who can't get games. Hopefully Edwards is such a steal for us. If we get picks from the above moves, look hard at giving them to GWS (or the players themselves if they want them) for youngsters. What would they give for Carlisle who fits their age bracket and needs?
- Don't be afraid to cut hard, and then give a group of mature aged players 1 year deals to ease the transition from this year to next. Nobody's tried it, let's do a mature age player PSD fight off! :)
In this scenario, the target should be to keep the core of the team who are 26/27 and under, and be trying to get value elsewhere. If we can keep Zaha, Myers, Hocking, Melksham, Heppell, Hooker, Hurley, JD, Gleeson, Colyer, Carlisle, Zerrett, then that gives us a pretty solid core, especially if other youngsters on the list (Laverde, Langford, McKenna, Dalgiesh, Jerrett, Kav, Edwards, Fantasia, Ashby) can develop as we hope. You probably also try to transition over 2 years so that you don’t go too deep in one draft (unless you have very good picks).
If we did that, you might end up playing a team like this next year:
FB: Baguley Hooker Steinberg/Fletch
HB: Hibberd Hurley Gleeson/Ashby/Dalgiesh
Mid: Zaha Heppell Colyer
Onb: Giles Myers Hocking
HF: Zerrett Smack McKenna/Fantasia
FF: Edwards/Laverde JD Langford/Ambrose/Kommer
Emg: two of Stanton/Watson/Goddard/Cooney, Melksham, Kav/NOB/Jerrett
Underlined players would probably be the only automatic first 22 players. Now, would that team win too many games now? No. But most players would be under 26, and we would probably have a good crack at a lot of games. Big weakness in tall forwards (duh), ruck (duh), and depending on how the youngsters develop the small forwards/midfield. But defence should still be solid, you can build around that. So blow outs should be minimised.
I suspect we would probably end up with somewhere in the range of 3 first round and 4 second round picks in that scenario. I’m assuming Belly + Carlisle get 1st round picks, Howlett gets a 2nd rounder, and between two of Watson/Stanton/Goddard/Cooney + salary cap + our 3rd round pick + Dempsey we get a further 2 2nd round picks. Obviously we start with a 1st and 2nd rounder already. Possibly depending on Carlisle’s price we’d have another first or 2nd rounder as well. You would probably try and trade some of those picks for upgrades given both our need for blue chip players and our recent success with later picks (say to use on a Brown or Tippa maybe).
So out Gwilt, Belly, Carlisle, Dempsey, Winders, Howlett, Chapman, Pears, 2 of Watson/Stanton/Goddard/Cooney, salary cap
In McKenna, Smack, a whole chunk of young talent (or traded players).
10 out, 3 promoted, 7 drafted in (maybe one/two used on late F/S selection, rest 1st & 2nd round picks) and 2-3 rookies drafted (depending on if Aylett is kept)
Targets would probably be another spare ruck (don’t spend big as you can trade for one later), 2-3 tall forwards, and smalls with pace and skills. No more back-flankers.
That would be extreme, but possibly doable. You would almost certainly end up with another good pick next year. It would be brutal, but if we’re not going to be contenders for 4+ years it should be done.
Edit: I would note with this approach that all the ‘young’ players get another year. So it’s 10 out, but all of Kav, NOB, Dal, Browne, Hams, Jerrett, Fanta, Stein, Kommer, Ashby etc get at least one more year (+ Fletch). So probably a second (mini) culling next year as well, when the draft is better.