Delistings and List Regeneration

Just watching a video on the AFL site about their latest US combine. I don't care if it's Australian steeplechasers, Canadian rugby players, or American basketballers, we should be taking advantage of every possible way to get players on the list.

I know the chances of those guys making it are slim at best, but I think it’s borderline irresponsible for us not to have a full rookie B list at all times given our draft position for the last couple of years.

when you say full Rookie B list…how many can we have?

Fairly sure it’s 3

Just watching a video on the AFL site about their latest US combine. I don't care if it's Australian steeplechasers, Canadian rugby players, or American basketballers, we should be taking advantage of every possible way to get players on the list.

I know the chances of those guys making it are slim at best, but I think it’s borderline irresponsible for us not to have a full rookie B list at all times given our draft position for the last couple of years.

when you say full Rookie B list…how many can we have?

You’re allowed 3, with a limit of 1 Irishman.

Serious re: Irish guys?

Serious re: Irish guys?

I may have phrased that a bit misleadingly. You can have as many Irish guys as you want, but only one can be classified as a category B rookie.

There was a bit of an argument between the GAA and the AFL about the number of players who were getting stolen, so the AFL agreed to reclassify Irish players as no longer being international rookies. They then ended up with the current situation of one category B Irish rookie.

Cheers. didn’t know that. .

Nocturnal,

A few issues. Apart from the fact you’ve been very optimistic on the trade values (which a lot of people have pointed out), if you get Leunberger in as a FA you lose some of your FA compensation. You have also wrecked our tall forward/ruck division. As true talls forward of defence we would only have Luenberger, Smack and JD. Zero depth (well, except Giles and he doesn’t appear to count). Personally, I don’t want either Luenberger or Smack playing CHF or FF, and add to that Luenberger has missed a lot due to injuries. The odds are the forward line and ruck division would be even worse than this year.

All
I do think a lot of people are kind of going half way house and drooling over draft picks, while ignoring both how long they take to develop, that they can be busts, that if Belly/Carlisle do leave we have HUGE holes, and that all of Stanton/Watson/Goddard/Cooney are likely to be less effective sooner rather than later.

If we honestly think we’re a chance within 1-2 years, we must keep Belly & Carlisle, or get equal or better equivalents in. If we’re not going to be challenging then, OR if we lose Belly & Carlisle for picks or mids, then it would be much smarter to go whole hog on the rebuild and trade/encourage people to leave such as Stanton, Goddard, Howlett, Gwilt, Dempsey in addition to the Belly/Carlsle leaving and really hit the draft hard.

But these suggestions of half-way house where we trade out one of our only 2 AFL rucks and one of our only 2 KPF’s on the list, for draft picks or mids, and expect us to be actually competitive seem silly.

One of our only 2 rucks might leave? Kind to Giles but I hadn’t heard any suggestion of McKernan going? Surely not Bellcho being referred to. Surely not.

If they won’t play him, Giles doesn’t count. And they preferred Ambrose to Giles in the ruck…

Which I personally find ridiculous, but was a choice the selection committee was willing to run with.

Just as there are two types of clubs, there are two types of supporters - those who would rather trade in talent, and those who prefer to draft and develop their own talent. If there’s a third variety then it’s a subtle combination of the two, which is probably most sensible.

I’m definitely in the draft and develop camp, mixed in with strategic trading to address needs. Unless we can get them cheap I’m not much interested in trading in big names. I always reckon there’s quality on the fringes if you know where to look.

Having said all that, and given the uncertainty of our current situation, I don’t think we have to be measured in our recruiting this year. If it’s at all possible we should bend over backwards to keep Carlisle. We can’t really afford to lose a decent tall given the dearth of them at the club, and I think his best football might be pretty good, and all ahead of him. That may be out of our hands, in which case I’m not as confident as some here that we’ll get a reasonable pick for him. (Carlton have been nominated as a likely destination, but their F/S situation makes that problematic).

And while there are likely to be a number of retirements end of season, and the temptation to delist a few on top of that, it might be better to hold fire given the shallow draft this year. Next year is mooted to be deeper, which may be the better time to cash in. In any case there should be some guiding principles. With Fletcher likely gone, and Carlisle possibly talls are at a premium. In my book that means we keep Steinberg and upgrade him to the main list as back-up at worst. We also need to target at least one tall - ideally a forward/ruck combo - in the off-season.

I’d cop 3 picks in the top 30, and sneak some talent by trading in, depending on what’s on the table. A Hampton or Tomlinson, one of the spare young rucks, a promising kid not getting a decent go, etc.

There is far more upside to Ashby and Dalgleish.

Hams is constantly injured, and welll Kommer has been as well for an extended period well over 12 months.

These are the types of players we continue to hold onto each year, and it’s not helping us build a team for the future one bit.

Dalgleish equally injury prone arguably moreso

Nocturnal,

A few issues. Apart from the fact you’ve been very optimistic on the trade values (which a lot of people have pointed out), if you get Leunberger in as a FA you lose some of your FA compensation. You have also wrecked our tall forward/ruck division. As true talls forward of defence we would only have Luenberger, Smack and JD. Zero depth (well, except Giles and he doesn’t appear to count). Personally, I don’t want either Luenberger or Smack playing CHF or FF, and add to that Luenberger has missed a lot due to injuries. The odds are the forward line and ruck division would be even worse than this year.

Yeah you right I missed the offset on the compensation. It’s hard to tell what you would get front the AFL, they like you you get heaps they want you to suffer you get heaps. Hawks got less for Franklin on a bigger deal than melbourne got for Frawely. Now because of their discretion in assessing the value they can do that.

Personally, I believe while Hirdy is coach we will get shafted on any decision the AFL makes.

The problem will Belly is I can’t see him being any good at the EFC. But I could see him flourishing at another club. The guy can play. I seen looney in a similar situation. Injuries are a concern for both. I’m all for turning over the list, as what we have appears to not be working.

The issue with the CHF is that we haven’t had a good one since Lucas left. So not having one next year really is not that big an issue. Smack and Looney rotating forward with Daniher and Ambrose as the two forward is serviceable. Not brilliant but enough to get by for a year. Hopefully a draftee can show signs.

Carlisle I am a big fan of and hope like hell he stays, but have comes to terms with the positive side of him leaving. He has some serious currency. How much depends on how desperate the clubs are, I think he has similar value to Ryder, which we got unders for last year because of ports position on the ladder. The clubs I think would go after Carlisle might have the same issue in our favour. You would need two picks in the top 15 to even try replace him, anything else would be a bit of a draft gamble. Which considering we already have him seems counterintuitive unless the deal gives us that opportunity. So if the clubs want him they will have to pay.

I still stand by the high turnover I put forward. The deals will dictate how far we should go, and based on a few opinions here it appears that it’s a bit aspirational.

I’m not necessarily against the high turn-over, as my posts in this thread make clear. If we think we’re 3-4 years away or lose Belly and Carlisle (in which case we’re definitely that far off), I think we should be extremely aggressive in trading out what chips we have.

But I do have an issue with leaving ourselves a structure that is “serviceable”, unless that is made up of young guys who hopefully will improve. So an attack of Smack/JD/Ambrose in my view is extremely shaky. Sure, it may be serviceable. It ain’t premiership quality.

The issues of retiring and trading are this year more clear than many previous years. We have several players that are almost certainly retiring and as such we cover our draft picks pretty easily. We also have a few players that are ripe for the trade, their experienced, youthful to have plenty of value and all have very high ceilings. If I was advising Dodoro and Hirdy this is what I would be presenting.

I think Fog has it down pretty good with the retiring of Fletch, Winder, Chappy. Gwilt is only 29 this year so aside from us moving him on he may want to hang around which would put him in the delisted category.

That gives us 3 list spots.

The delistings again appear to be pretty easy for the most part. I think Gwilt should make way for Steinberg, so I would move him on. Pears body is shot so I would send him off. Hams is only ever going to be a good VFL players, he is too small. O’brien should be shopped but will end up delisted and I think on a rookie list elsewhere.

That’s another 4 making 7 slots available.

Next we should be looking at trades. TBell to be encouraged to sign a big FA deal elsewhere, so to Dempsey. Carlisle has some serious currency and should be sold to the highest bidder. I’m going with Melbourne and Carlton. Kav may want out and if he does we should ablige.

That’s another 4 out making 11 slots available.

For the outs in trading im going to assume the following:

TBell going for pretty decent coin and we get and end of first round compensation.

Dempsey goes for a medium amount and we get a end of second round compensation.

Carlisle goes for big and we get Carlton current first and second round picks in exchange for our fourth.

Kav we trade out for a second rounder to Sydney.

So now we have (approximately)

Pick 3, Pick 6, Pick 19, Pick 22, Pick 25, Pick 37.

We upgrade Steinberg and Smack. Leaving 9 spots.

Again, I like Fogs trading from the other thread so I’m going to go with that.

We FA looneyburger

We use Pick 6 on Prestia

We use Pick 19 on Motlop (let’s hope they change the FA date as part of the CBA mid term review and we get him via FA)

After trading were down to 6 spots.

We go to the draft with 3, 22, 25, 37 and were down to two spots.

We pre season draft 1 and further upgrade Aylett for a year shot on the list to prove himself (expected delisting next year though)

We then take 3 in the rookie draft.

I also think we have a end of year leadership review and sit Watson down and say it’s time you stopped carrying this team on your shoulders. He has done enough and it’s time he takes a backward step. Stanton takes over the rains.

Our side we look something like this:

FB: Baguely, Hooker, Steinberg
HB: Hibbered, Hurley, Heppell
C: Goddard, Watson, Stanton ©
HF: Jerret, Daniher, Cooney
FF: Motlop, Smack, Colyer

Rucks: Looneyburger, Hocking, Zaka

Bench: Zerrett, Prestia, Melksham, Myers

Emerg from: Gleeson, Ashby, Edwards, Browne, Giles, Ambrose, Langford, Laverde, Dalgleish, Kommer, Howlett, Fantasia, Aylett, Pick 3, Pick 22, Pick 25, Pick 37, PSD Pick.

Rookies: Long, McKenna, 3 Rookie picks.

Allot is subjective, most will hammer my assumptions, but that’s what I’d be saying to do.

I like the sentiment of this post but as others have mentioned you’re not gonna get squat for Kav, Demps or O’brien.

I’d actually go further with the outs and add one more name from the back half, purely for the currency that would come back our way.

I think you are spot on concerning what we could expect for letting Buckets go.

Not sure about all the love for Prestia. I’d say yes only if he came relatively cheap. I think the modern trend is for slightly taller mids.

The modern game is ever more so about inches and what I’d add as Kg’s…

take a look at Freo & Syd … got to be a couple of the biggest , heaviest teams running around while we have guys like Hams,

Gleeson, Ashby, Fanta as part of our new generation.

But above all, the tallent pool in the next draft needs to be assessed for depth, … no point in so many early pick if there are only crumbs to

choose from.

Prestia is a gun. Nuggety contested ball winner with leadership, class and a bit of speed. Reports were that we were set to grab him in the draft until Heppell slid to us. Without looking up the info I’m pretty sure he was leading the AFL in clearances at one point last year and among the top possession getters. The trend in the AFL is tall midfielders because with height generally means more bulk that they can throw around in the contests and are harder to bring down…while Prestia isn’t tall he’s still built like a brick shithouse and very strong through the core. He’s probably not that far off having a similar body size to GAJ. Besides there’s few tall midfielders that actually use their height to advantage, it’s more the bulk.

Prestia is a gun. Nuggety contested ball winner with leadership, class and a bit of speed. Reports were that we were set to grab him in the draft until Heppell slid to us. Without looking up the info I'm pretty sure he was leading the AFL in clearances at one point last year and among the top possession getters. The trend in the AFL is tall midfielders because with height generally means more bulk that they can throw around in the contests and are harder to bring down...while Prestia isn't tall he's still built like a brick shithouse and very strong through the core. He's probably not that far off having a similar body size to GAJ. Besides there's few tall midfielders that actually use their height to advantage, it's more the bulk.

I like the smaller mids. Get in and under…

Prestia is a gun. Nuggety contested ball winner with leadership, class and a bit of speed. Reports were that we were set to grab him in the draft until Heppell slid to us. Without looking up the info I'm pretty sure he was leading the AFL in clearances at one point last year and among the top possession getters. The trend in the AFL is tall midfielders because with height generally means more bulk that they can throw around in the contests and are harder to bring down...while Prestia isn't tall he's still built like a brick shithouse and very strong through the core. He's probably not that far off having a similar body size to GAJ. Besides there's few tall midfielders that actually use their height to advantage, it's more the bulk.

He’s not a A+ gun yet. Fyfe & Danger are A+ guns. Meatball would be A - at best. A lot of Meatball’s better games were when Ablett & Jager

were running around , where opposition clubs would certainly focus priority on them.

Don’t get me wrong, I love my meatballs as much as the next guy… just wouldn’t pay overs. I would however pay overs for a great steak.

It is never a good idea to make wholesale changes in an offseason. Just need to cut the fat a little and bring in some youth and excitement.

Need to bring in 7 new faces the way I see it.

So looking at the list, this is where those faces will come from.

Gone: Fletcher, Winderlich, Chapman, Gwilt, Pears, Obrien and Steinberg.

Re-sign (for different amounts of years, mostly 1) : Baguley, Bellchambers, Browne, Carlisle, Dalgeish, Daniher, Fantasia, Hams, Kavanagh, Melksham, Stanton and Dempsey.

Elevate: McKernan
Re-rookie: Long and Aylett

That then gives us 6 live picks at the draft and 2 at the rookie draft.

If Carlisle forces our hand and we need to trade him then at least trade him for a top 10 pick OR a 1st round pick and an upgrade of picks later in the draft. If other players want to be traded then also try to accommodate them and get a pick.

Ok, go through our list and who goes? What? OBrien, Kav? Wow, huge calls there.

What about the guys we know won’t get any better than they are now? Surely enough is enough.

I have already said my bit on Dempsey, Stanton and Melksham so i’ll move on from them. But what about players like Hocking, Zaharakis and even Hibbo?

In # order
Hibbo - look to trade if we can get something decent
TBell - sigh
Chappy - retire
Watson - stay
Stanton - said enough
JD - Keep
Zac - Keep
Winderlich - Retire
Goddard - Stay (contract too big to ditch)
Obrien - Out of contract, don’t know. Give him the rest of the season at least in the seniors.
Zaharakis - Trade if we get something decent (like Hibbo, would trade in a heart beat for a 1st rounder, beyond that is 50/50)
Bags - Keep
Cooney - Has another year on contract, just play him as a small forward
Ashby - Just give him a ■■■■■■■ game in front of Dempsey
Dempsey - LOL
Pears - gawn
Melksham - LOL
Hurley - Keep
Edwards - Give him some game time please.
Merret - Keep
Hep - Keep
Carlisle - Keep but if he does want out hope we get a top 10 pick for him. Won’t believe any crap until Mr Sunbury says he is going
Myers - Keep. Miss him massively.
Browne - See OBrien
Hooker - Keep
Giles - What a waste
Kav - See OBrien
Ambrose - Still young
Langford - First year
Fletch - Will probably retire
Colyer - Keep
Laverde - keep
Gleeson - Keep
Dagleish - Why can’t he get a game? Give him rest of the season
Kommer - thin ice
Hocking - See zaharakis
Howlett - Like him, but reckon he is on the cusp
Hams - Probably gone.
Gwilt - Gone
Fantasia - keep.

Only about 6 or so keeps based on merit, the others are because they are still young and we haven’t seen enough of them.
TBell, Stanton, Hibbo, Melksham, Pears, Zaharakis, Hocking and Howlett need to be looked at as to whether we should keep them.

The night of a game like this is the best time for list analysis. Everyone should be posting willy nilly in here tonight. sigh