The problem Turnbull is encountering is entirely of his own making, and was also entirely foreseeable.
He was elected because he seems to be a decent person and he’s not Tony Abbott, and at the time of his election he said all the right things. The most important thing he said was that his government would treat the electorate like adults, i.e., make sensible policy choices and explain them fully so that the electorate could see that they were sensible. He also did a couple of easy things like scrapping the knights and dames farce. Generally he was welcomed, even on this forum, though very cautiously. He seemed like a breath of fresh air.
But continuing his popularity was always going to depend on whether he actually delivered on his promise to make sensible decisions and defend them convincingly. And he has so far completely failed to do so. We have had a great big announcement on “innovation”, a concept so waffly that it floated away immediately into the ether; but apart from that we’ve had nothing.
The biggest and most intractable problem is the budget and the continually rising government expenditure, most of which is expenditure on recurrent expenses such as education and welfare and health. He’s only been in office for less than six months, so it may not be surprising that there’s been no announcement of the solutions to these problems. But what he promised was a debate, and for there to be a debate there needs to be a clear articulation of the problem, its possible causes and its possible solutions, with an outline of the pros and cons that people can think about. We haven’t had it. We’ve had hardly anything originating from the government about the economy and the budget; the little that has been said has almost entirely been in response to proposals from Labor or elsewhere.
Partly I’m surprised and partly I’m not. The “not” part comes from the fact that he had not been very good as opposition leader when he had that job, and the fact that I’ve watched him in interviews over the years and not been very impressed.
What does surprise me is that he has these deficiencies. He’s been a lawyer and I’ve seen him in court, and the one thing that’s essential to be a good lawyer is to stick to the point, put forward your case and explain and defend it clearly. He’s also been extremely successful in business, and for that you need above all to make decisions and make them quickly. So I can’t understand why, as a politician, he’s such a ditherer.
He’s still far more popular than Bill Shorten, and if he can get his act together, starting right now, I have little doubt that he’ll win the coming election and probably at least a couple more. But unfortunately he doesn’t look like getting his act together. So the next election is up for grabs.