Russia invades Ukraine - 3 - from 23 Oct 2022

Also has resemblances to strategies used to elect supposedly “left of centre” people with specific hot-button issues about how awful the others are. Approach is basically to reduce people’s confidence that they can change anything and sow discord among those who want to try.

Key difference between the fascist regimes and others is that the fascists back it up with open violence against anybody not convinced whereas others try harder to convince people, which includes making life more tolerable than it is under fascists.

That’s why it’s necessary to unite to militarily smash fascists whatever one thinks of the various different but somewhat similar careerists of democratic politics.

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Tweet stresses:

The trenches aren’t cleared and this is a dangerous thing to do without infantry.
Combined arms is the only way to go.

But we are being provided a view from a drone.

That strikes me as a “combined arms” operation that would have a better appreciation of whether or not infantry support is needed for that particular trench than the tank operators alone would have.

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Add 4 Bradley’s to that footage, each with 8 troops.

The tank and Bradleys advance towards the trench, laying down suppressing fire while moving. They stop 100m out and release the infantry, all while laying down heavy fire.

The infantry circle around from the side and call the suppressing fire to shift as they clear each trench. The infantry are reasonably safe because the four chainguns are keeping the enemy’s heads down. The infantry can call in targets as they move forward, the tank can throw some high explosive shells at anything ugly.

Once the trenches are clear, the tank and Bradleys push up to the infantry and defend the position just taken.

Doing it without the volume of eyeballs means the tank is at very high risk of getting hit from the side, even with the drone.

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True enough, though both Ukraine and Russia emerged from the totally corrupt USSR collapse with basically the same corrupt nomenklatura seizure of nominally state assets to form a class of oligarchs initially (and still) more compatible with Western forms of capitalist ownership than the silovaki (security or “force”) sections of the nomenklatura.

But the transition from corrupt oligarchic rule is not led by EU. There is an ongoing deep democratic revolution in Ukraine. The initial trigger for “Euro Maidan” was the pro-Russian oligarch leader’s attempt to attack Ukraine economically to Russia instead of the EU. But it went on to defeat the pro-EU oligarchs too.

Certainly the EU and NATO support is critical for defeating the fascist invasion. EU regulations against corruption are helpful, but Ukrainian democratic revolution is what is leading the social change from just another post-Soviet mess to something modern.

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When the Bradleys arrive I am sure they will be put to good use.

Meanwhile they go to war with the forces they have, not with those they want to have.

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What I described above can be done with soviet BMPs, maybe not as well. But that dynamic requires significant training to do well. Stop the suppressing fire too early and the enemy pops out and hits you. Stop it too late and you hit your own infantry.

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Military support needs to increase, not just hold.

Some choices have been made. Flow of munitions is being ramped up.

Other choices not yet made. Still no preparations for actual “collective defence” from fascism.

The basic principle of both the UN and NATO is that an attack on one is an attack on all.

Making the right choice requires actually mobilizing allied armed forces and deploying them to staging areas.

Responding to an expected mobilization of another half a million troops for war by not deploying is a choice to encourage that war to be prolonged.

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Sometimes they are even using tanks for indirect fire artillery when that’s what happens to be available.

More often tanks are unavailable and infantry without adequate armour is having to fight.

Ukraine is sustaining a lot more casualties than they would be if they had all the equipment they need.

But they have an enemy that is neither trained nor motivated, so sometimes a tactic that looks too risky may not be - it depends on local information that twitter commentaries just don’t have.

Ukraine’s overall orientation seems to me to be to avoid “heroic offensives” and preserve forces while wearing down the enemy.

I would not be competent to judge the tactics of a tank attack even if fully informed. But there are a lot of enemy trenches in Ukraine and they do not have a great supply of tanks. So I would not assume that the tank operators are making an obvious mistake without knowing what information they have, including from the drone about the actual situation.

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My impression is that they have greatly depleted their border forces, and their other expeditionary forces except for training in Belarus.

That should make it easier to seriously threaten them by deploying actual forces in response to the mobilization.

Poland seems to be preparing for this.

Finland and Sweden are joining NATO as security providers, not consumers.

Moving a lot of NATO forces closer to St Petersburg could pin down some of the mobilized troops and keep them out of Ukraine.

Forward deployment of Polish forces closer to Belarus border could free more Ukrainian troops from protecting against attacks from the north.

There is a LOT that could be done for “collective defence” that might deter the fascists and would speed up their defeat if it does not.

Just sanctions and sending arms has clearly NOT been sufficient to deter them. What is still required is to actually defeat them.

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I hesitate to proclaim anything as “the only way” as this seems to have been successful.
No, a drone in the vicinity does not make it combined. There’s no evidence of arty support (HE, smoke), infantry, etc.) infantry is 90% always needed, specially in brush, forests, and build up areas - the only time it may not have been 100% necessary, was in the example posted about the Iraq war - but they still needed infantry to look at the positions as the tanks moved forwards.
However, when you lack something or $hit is hitting the fan, often the best thing to employ is ‘speed and violence’

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Article of 21 September on the site of the Centre for European Policy Studies puts forward estimates of Russian military strength and sources/conscription methods.

cepa.org

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When I see stuff like that I am reminded of Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry: " do you feel lucky, punk"

  • sometimes it is bravado, sometimes ignorance that make ppl do stupid things - if it works, you’re a brave genius; if it doesn’t you were a dumb #uck
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We’ve seen a huge number of Russian tanks do similar things and get destroyed because of it. We judge the Russians harshly when they make these mistakes, only fair to hold Ukraine to the same standards.

Just because you got away with something dumb doesn’t make it not dumb.

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Ok, I’m not competent.

My understanding is that infantry is needed to screen tanks because they keep enemy infantry away from getting close enough to the tanks to use RPGs etc.

Suppressing fire would be used if they were getting too close.

There is no suppressing fire and nobody keeping enemy infantry from getting too close.

But I still don’t see how the tank operator would not be better aware of the relative risks and rewards with ALL the drone footage available of the situation in and near that trench, than twitter observers looking at just the more “interesting” bit showing the tank attacking the trench.

What term should I use instead of “combined arms” to describe a situation wherever a separate Drone Force is providing forward observer support to

  1. armour

  2. infantry

  3. artillery

Would it become “combined arms” if at least two of those 3 are actually engaged.

Or is is still “combined arms” when, as a result of the combination with that Drone Force, an engagement that would normally require at least two of the ground forces can be carried out using only one of them?

Would it count as “Combined Arms” if the Drone Force was actually engaged by artillery adjustment or laser designation or direct air to ground attack instead of simply as forward observers?

Would it help if in this role they were called “airborne infantry screen”? :wink:

L8R gone

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You guys need to choose an av.

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Keyword here is ‘arm’ - uav’s are not an arm but support. Doctrinally for us it must include armour, infantry, engineers, arty support.

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one way to stay warm

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Good real world example of drone recon.

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Not a good result for Ukr on the House floor in the US today I imagine, the concessions than McCarthy needed to get the speaker role will probably heavily limit spending

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