Russia invades Ukraine - 3 - from 23 Oct 2022

Got it,
Two things:
The russians have smartened up and move quicly, use camouflage, and disperse.
And the UA counter battery radars have bit hit and reduced in number.

That explains the diminished rate of arty attrition

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Not suere what rescue teams use in terms of passive sound locating; I think it’s mostly probes snaked into or under the rubble. May be using the same algorithms to determine location by triangulation but doubt it involves drones in that system.
HALO is the name of one of the common system

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image

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Thanks.
Maybe the rescue and recovery teams are also using drones for still body searches and types of materials in buildings to assess machinery for recovery.

For now. Those tanks and F16s needed to have been sent way before now and be in place in hot spots across the front.

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SpaceX delivers US military satellite payloads to space on Falcon 9 so this seems rather absurd.

By all indices, the russian economy is in trouble.

Income has fallen while spending has exploded such that the Federal budget is in real trouble.


Mr Lee/Містер ЛіРой :zimbabwe: on Twitter: “@MriyaReport Russian Economy death spiral begins. The bear will bleed to death. https://t.co/O8mUNt5AjM” / Twitter

So Putin wanted big business to voluntarily give the Government 200 Billion rubles as a “gift”
They discussed it and - “so sorry” - they didn’t think that it was such a good idea…


Big business refused to discount the “gift” to Putin | Capital of the country (kapital-rus.ru)

Girkin is not surprised

Where to from here?

Meanwhile…

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Thanks. So the fancy shoot-and-scoot Western gear is not so good at scooting? (At least in UA hands).

When the War began, Russian gold reserves were noted.
Russia is a huge exporter of grains and fertilisers, sanctions free, current high prices. Some could be flowing to the budget
Have there been any reports of consumer food , or other, shortages in Russia?
Certainly Russian consumers are not suffering civilian infrastructure attacks.

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If the budget deficit this year is that bad and getting worse it is not the end - they can use their reserves or just print money. Both options will have impacts.
The agricultural sector is a relatively small contributor to GDP but exports still contribute to income. Not enough to finance a long, very expensive and very draining war though.


No reports of food shortages.

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No, counter-battery radars don’t do any of the shooting. That’s the self propelled howitzers (fast) or towed M777 (slow but still able to move). The fire their shells then move to a different location to avoid the return fire. AFAIK, they are working very well.

The radars are the ones that @elfm is referring to, which provide the locations to the howitzers.

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Russia is resource rich.
Capitalising on the treasure in the ground and under the sea is currently compromised by private sector with technical expertise withdrawing from joint ventures and other types of investment.
Currently sell offs from foreign ownership are subject to a 50% price discount and 10% to the budget.
There have been suggestions that post war, foreigners could buy back or lease on just terms.

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That’s why I mentioned geo sync ones. Apparently there are over 5k of those types parked up there.

Also I would have assumed given the thousands of satellites up there the militarily important regions would have sensors on them 24/7.

I would have thought with sensors across the whole spectrum coupled with AI processing every inch of the battlefield can be constantly monitored.

Terminator? More like

image

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Geosynchronous orbits are only along the equator. You match the speed of the satellite with the speed the earth rotates.

To get coverage of stuff above and below the equator, you need a north-south orbit. That means you are flicking past, rather than hovering.

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As to the situation in the UA breadbasket, our GrainCorp had about a dozen posted there.
I would assume similar for US and Canadian grain traders. They would have about the best intelligence, drawn on by the likes of the WFP
Australian food and fossil fuel commodity exporters have been getting good prices since the UA war.
Our wool prices were at their highest during the Korean War. During the Cold War the Fraser Government withstood pressure to place sanctions on our wool exports to the Soviet Union

This blogger thinks Wagner knows how to fight.
No wonder then that they lack understanding.
Wagner knows one thing for sure, how to make mince meat, out of their own.

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