Current military and strategic goals are independent of whether the regime ends before, during or after. But the inclusion of “justice” including reparations and punishment of war criminals has implications that Russian fascism ends and a democratic regime gets established which get ignored by “many analysts”.
At every step the West has been dragged behind Ukraine’s objectives. Ukraine cannot move too far ahead but they are always ahead of what “many analysts” understand and are VERY conscious of the fact that the war started in 2014 due to the Maidan revolution whereas “many analysts” just don’t get what the war is about.
Post war recovery for Ukraine under the shadow of ongoing threat from a revanchist Russian fascist regime rebuilding its forces is NOT their strategic goal. It may get forced on them by dependency on Western aid but they will do everything they can to avoid it since it implies ongoing diversion of resources to military defence, delays return of refugees and obstructs necessary investments. They don’t want another war with Russian fascism and are fighting to avoid their children having to live under that threat.
I highlighted the quote re border zone from Budanov because it is the first official mention I have noticed about that particular aspect - which I have been emphasizing as relevant for drone enhancements remaining important even if they take too long for impact on current battles.
BTW is anybody aware of other mentions of border security zone by Ukrainian officials? Please provide links.
The implications for Russian armed struggle are from me and not something I would expect to see mentioned by Ukraine. But they are already doing far more than they are announcing.
eg There was an item linked from here with Ukraine Special Operations unit that crosses the border that mentioned they get help from Russians across the border “who want a different Russia”.
There are also both Russian and Belarus sections of the Ukraine Foreign Legion. They aren’t just “nascent” and “sheltering” - they are fighting. They are unlikely to stop fighting when Russia retreats from Ukraine. They may redesignate themselves as no longer part of the Ukrainian armed forces but it is unlikely they would be unable to obtain assistance from former comrades in arms.
My own view is that the end of the Putin regime may produce a more competent fascist regime that blames Putin and the circles that support him for total incompetence (if not being paid agents of the West trying to destroy Russia) and orders the immediate retreat from Ukraine that is clearly a military necessity that the incompetents are unable to order because it highlights their abysmal failure.
Such a retreat to recover would not be the end of the war, but a new phase.
I have not seen anything from Ukraine suggesting that is likely or even plausible. But neither have I seen anything from Ukraine to suggest that the war will end when Putin does. They do not seem to be expecting an anti-war government in Russia any time soon and neither do I.
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