Russia invades Ukraine - the first ten weeks

They’re probs up to their eyeballs in crypto too

Just great. Amazing.

And has developed into a leading wheat exporter.

Ukraine would have deliberately avoided mobilising as it could have been used as an excuse to invade. They will have knowingly weakened their defences in the hope that it would avoid escalation.

Same thing happened with German annexation during WW2. Denmark had withdrawn their army from the border and hence had them out of position when the Germans invaded.

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The error was thinking that it was ever a chance of not happening

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Maybe they’re playing possum?

Apparently (■■■■ I’m using that word a lot today) the U.S state department predicted 72 hours from the launch of the invasion to the fall of Kyiv, on the assumption of Ukrainian military resistance.

We might see it fall far sooner than that.

That’s their only chance

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It’ll be over very quickly.

Wonder whether they bothered to set up any assets in Russia over the years? Wont prevent getting conquered but make the Russians pay a little? They would have known this was coming.

OSCE has a special monitoring mission in the Ukraine and issues daily reports, which can be considered factual, if limited in detail.

osce.org

My parents were from pre WW2 Ivano-Frankisk, Stanisławów, ostesibly a Polish city.

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They also estimated the Afghan government could last months. The Army scarpered and the Taliban were back at the wheel in a week.

The US state department have no frigging idea.

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Hopefully that gives the impetus for the European nations to join the fray

What would happen if countries like Poland and the Baltic states decide to send troops to help defend Ukraine? What would that mean for the rest of NATO?

It won’t, imo. None will enter Ukrainian territory.

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Rope-a-dope?

Nobody will send troops into Ukraine. Won’t happen.

No UN action will happen with Russia holding the security council presidency and a veto power.

Marginal efficacy from sanctions because Europe can’t cut their addiction to Russian gas.

Putin knew what the range of outcomes were here and none of them were significant enough to dissuade him.

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You’re dreaming if you think anyone comes with military on the ground aid. It isn’t happening.