Tesla just changed everything


#621

The 3 will start at $50k next year.

Tesla privately concede China are going to own this field in the not-too-distant future (well, at least the non-automated part of that field). By 2030 it will be 10-15k (AUS).

(I failed to ask if that figure was inflation-adjusted or not.)


#622

Yeah, Tesla are just the pioneers. EV is starting to build momentum. Nothing will stop it now. China will rule the world with transport and battery tech. Be interesting to see where Musk is in 10 years. I doubt he will be a successful car tycoon. He could do worse than start working on water availability.


#623

Tesla have no real inclination to chase mass market.

They make fancy gadgets for rich white men - and they know it. The share market will catch on soon and they’ll probably crash hard.


#624

This is also arguable.
All depends on the margins of the lithium.
A few of the big auto companies are cooling on EV significantly.


#625

No worries for China though. They own Australia’s (and some of the world’s) richest lithium deposits already.

So your EV will come from a Chinese company rather than a US one. And certainly not an Australian one with the Tories closing down what industry we had on the one hand and flogging off our lithium on the other,


#626

Interesting. Haven’t been following this exactly. Is it because of the price of batteries?


#627

$$$

Take out the various subsidies, offsets and grants and full electric aren’t stacking up to petrol or diesel. Yet.

Lithium price is in decline and has been for a few years.


#628

Hyundai are talking sub 50k. I would think this will fall as they get some mass.

You will also be able to walk into a dealer test drive and buy one, not pay 2.5k and hope that some point in the future you might actually be lucky enough to get your car…

I suspect eventually the shareholders for Tesla won’t pony up any more money, the banks wont be interested and Tesla will end up as a brand name owned by another company.

As for Toys for rich white boys, when BMW. Mercedes, Range Rover, Audi and Lexus all have eletric cars, how many of those owners are going to change to Tesla enough to keep a 55 billion dollar company busy? Thats roughly the same market cap as BMW. BMW made 2.08 million cars last year Tesla 95,350.


#629


#630

Who said comedy doesn’t pay??


#631

Frank Sinatra : " And now the end is near, and as I face the final curtain ".


#632

Elon Musk is a total fraud

DON’T be fooled. So far, Tesla billionaire Elon Musk has only been successful at tricking people into thinking he’s a success.

Maureen Callahan
NY PostJULY 22, 20189:45AM

ONE disastrous tweet has finally revealed Elon Musk for what he is: a fraud.
Enraged that a British cave diver called his idea to rescue the Thai soccer team for what it was — “a p.r. stunt [with] absolutely no chance of working” — Musk took to Twitter and called him a “pedo.”
Just like that, Tesla’s market value plummeted by $2 billion.
Musk has been in business since 2002. His stated goal is nothing short of transforming humanity through his products: his electric cars, space travel, and an underground high-speed Hyperloop system.
He has yet to succeed at anything but somehow spins every failure into proof of imminent success. His only accomplishment has been this decades-long Jedi mind trick.
Tesla is best known for blowing deadlines and consistently falling short on production.
In November 2017, Bloomberg reported that the company burns through $500,000 per hour. For two years now, Tesla has been suffering an epic talent drain and in May, two top execs — one the liaison with the National Transportation Safety Board — walked out the door.
That’s to say nothing of the human toll.
In March, a Tesla driver was killed while test-driving an auto-piloted Model X, the impact fully decimating half the car. Then in May, the NTSB announced an investigation after two teenagers were killed in a Tesla Model S after its battery caught fire following a crash. A similar accident claimed a driver two months prior, with California firefighters reporting that the Tesla battery kept reigniting itself days after the smash.
California’s Division of Occupational Safety and Health opened its third investigation into workplace safety at Tesla Inc. in July after employee complaints. Two investigations have been ongoing since April, yet Musk took to Twitter to boast that Tesla was now building its cars in a tent.
“Not sure we actually need a building,” he tweeted. Meanwhile, he was “back to sleeping at the factory” to hit production deadlines.
This is a genius?
Tesla was founded in 2003, but the world’s largest automakers quickly surpassed Musk’s vision for electric vehicles. Tesla will never catch up. Shareholders are finally catching on.
So should the government, which reportedly gifts Musk’s companies with an estimated $4.9 billion in subsidies.
Star investor Jim Chanos called Tesla a “walking insolvency” back in 2016. He doubled down in December, saying Tesla is “headed for a brick wall.”
SpaceX — which Musk touts as replacing NASA and colonising Mars — has been a literal failure to launch. So many of its rockets have burned up or crashed that Musk, for reasons unknown, has made a blooper reel.
As for that Hyperloop, most experts say it’s impossible and unnecessary. “It gives me pause to think that otherwise intelligent people are buying into this kind of utopian vision,” Harvard professor Jose Gomez-Ibanez told MIT Technology Review in 2016.
“They’re up against the airlines, and airlines don’t need to install hundreds of miles of track.”
Rocket scientist and aerodynamic engineer Leon Vanstone has called the Hyperloop yet another Elon Musk hustle.
Writing in Fortune, Vanstone asked: “Is it possible to build a Hyperloop train into a 200-mile underground tunnel on a reasonable timeline that moves people in 29 minutes [from DC to New York] and isn’t prohibitively expensive? Probably not.”
Musk infamously does not take criticism well and refuses to be questioned or challenged — three lethal traits in a leader. On a conference call with analysts in May, Musk dismissed questions about Tesla’s diminishing capital and other dubious claims with name-calling.
“Excuse me,” Musk said. “Next. Boring boneheaded questions are not cool.”
Tesla’s stock plummeted 5.6 per cent after that performance. They also dropped 5 per cent after an April Fool’s Day tweet in which Musk announced Tesla had gone bankrupt.
“Elon plays by his own rules,” a former Tesla exec told The Washington Post, “but I think he underestimates the weight of his own words.”
Musk’s attempts to insert himself into the Thai cave rescue show he has less intelligence and even less humanity than we realised.
He finally apologised on Wednesday for his disgusting accusations against the hero diver, but only after shareholders demanded it and not without accusing the diver of lying, insisting his own efforts weren’t p.r.-driven but “an act of kindness.”
Oh — and that the sub he built was “to specifications from the dive-team leader.”
In other words: Musk isn’t sorry and nothing is ever his fault.
Business as usual.


#633

“yeah, well you’re a pedo” - musk probably.


#634

Musk calling his company Tesla, is like Google having the motto “Don’t be evil”


#635

There is an incredibly interesting sociology experiment at play here.

Seeing how people are reacting to Musk and by extension Tesla because of this.


#636

Weren’t the solary batttery thingies in South Australia a success?


#637

Just catching up on this thread. Haven’t read the article but have read it in his book and his response. She asked for a raise, he gave her a month off and did her job to see if he needed her, decided he didn’t and then have her redundancy complete with 52 weeks of paid leave. Wouldn’t have thought there’s much wrong with that


#638

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-asks-suppliers-for-cash-back-to-help-turn-a-profit-1532301091

Tesla Asks Suppliers for Cash Back to Help Turn a Profit
Electric-car company, in memo, asks supplier to return a meaningful portion of money spent since 2016
A Tesla Model 3 on display at an auto show in Beijing earlier this year.
A Tesla Model 3 on display at an auto show in Beijing earlier this year. PHOTO: JASON LEE/REUTERS
By Tim Higgins
Updated July 22, 2018 9:50 p.m. ET
354 COMMENTS
Tesla Inc. TSLA -2.08% has asked some suppliers to refund a portion of what the electric-car company has spent previously, an appeal that reflects the auto maker’s urgency to sustain operations during a critical production period.

The Silicon Valley electric-car company said it is asking its suppliers for cash back to help it become profitable, according to a memo reviewed by The Wall Street Journal that was sent to a supplier last week. Tesla requested the supplier return what it calls a meaningful amount of money of its payments since 2016, according to the memo.

The auto maker’s memo, sent by a global supply manager, described the request as essential to Tesla’s continued operation and characterized it as an investment in the car company to continue the long-term growth between both players.

While Tesla said in the memo that all suppliers were being asked to help it become profitable, it is unclear how many were asked for a discount on contracted spending amounts retroactively. Some suppliers contacted about the request said they were unaware of such a demand.

Tesla declined to comment on the specific memo. But it confirmed it is seeking price reductions from suppliers for projects, some of which date back to 2016, and some of which haven’t been completed. The company called such requests a standard part of procurement negotiations to improve its competitive advantage, especially as it ramps up Model 3 production.

The surprising requests raise further questions about Tesla’s cash position, which has dwindled after it struggled to boost production of its first car designed for mainstream buyers, the Model 3. After months of delays, Tesla last quarter reached its longstanding goal of making 5,000 Model 3s in a single week, which, if sustained, will help it generate cash.

Auto makers and suppliers have complicated relationships, each fighting for the best deal under immense pricing pressure. Supply-chain consultants say sometimes auto makers will demand a reduction in price for a current contract going forward or use leverage of awarding a new deal to get upfront savings on a contract. But they say it is unusual for an auto maker to ask for a refund for past work.

Dennis Virag, a manufacturing consultant who has worked in the automotive industry for 40 years, said a solicitation like Tesla’s could put suppliers in financial peril and jeopardize its future supply of car parts.

“It’s simply ludicrous and it just shows that Tesla is desperate right now,” he said. “They’re worried about their profitability but they don’t care about their suppliers’ profitability.”

Tesla has sought to balance its desire for rapid growth with paying for the expensive launch of new vehicles and building out infrastructure to compete against much larger auto makers.

Chief Executive Elon Musk has said he wants to avoid raising additional cash, promising the company can become cash-flow positive with the continued Model 3 build rate and turn a profit in the second half of the year. Many analysts expect Tesla eventually will need to raise more money.

Tesla has been burning cash at a rate of about $1 billion a quarter, and finished the first quarter with $2.7 billion in cash on hand. Tesla pledged to pare back planned capital expenditures this year to less than $3 billion from $3.4 billion last year. Its loss attributable to common shareholders in the first quarter was $710 million, the fifth consecutive quarter of record losses.

Tesla will need to pay down a $230 million convertible bond this November if its stock doesn’t reach a conversion price of $560.64, and a $920 million convertible note next March if the stock doesn’t reach $359.87. Shares closed Friday at $313.58, and are down about 4.5% over the past 12 months.

As part of Tesla’s bid to become profitable, Mr. Musk cut Tesla’s workforce by 9% in June and promised to slow other spending as well. He’s become focused intently on becoming cash-flow positive, a person familiar with his thinking said.

Last month, he told employees in an email: “What drives us is our mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable, clean energy, but we will never achieve that mission unless we eventually demonstrate that we can be sustainably profitable. That is a valid and fair criticism of Tesla’s history to date.”

As a younger company, Tesla indicated it had trouble getting the attention of some of the most important suppliers. Mr. Musk has complained in the past that he wasn’t getting parts makers’ best teams, but he has said that changed with the Model 3.

Tesla has made changes with its suppliers in the past to help preserve its cash position.

In August, Mr. Musk told analysts Tesla was able to negotiate longer payment terms to about 60 days for Model 3 parts, in what he described as “the nirvana” that would allow the auto maker to make the car and get paid for it before the bill is due to suppliers.

“Obviously, that’s like the promised land right there,” he said.


#639

It really really really doesn’t.

Battery prices p/watt and watt p/kg are plummeting at a rate of knots. Re: that and your (totally wrong?) figures on loss per car:

http://www.autonews.com/article/20180717/RETAIL/180719816/tesla-earnings-musk-manufacturing

EDIT: for the lazy

Tesla Model 3 critic flips view, sees possible 30% profit margin
4-5 minutes

The rollout of Tesla Inc.’s Model 3 electric sedan over the last year was plagued by delays and doubts over whether it could ever be profitable. Now, one of car’s most outspoken early critics has changed his view.

Munro & Associates, a small Detroit-area firm that disassembles new cars and analyzes them down to the nuts and bolts, came out in April with damning findings that the Model 3 was poorly built and – even worse for Tesla’s long-term outlook – costly to build. On that second point, at least, founder Sandy Munro has reversed course.

Upon further analysis, his firm has found that the sedan can be profitable. It may even have the potential to make a 30 percent margin, which would be unmatched by any other other battery-powered vehicle.

“A lot of crow is being eaten around here,” Munro said in an interview posted Monday by “Autoline After Hours,” a show streamed weekly by a Metro Detroit broadcaster. “No electric car is getting 30 percent. Nobody.”

Munro said the systems that impressed him most were the tight integration of circuit board components, which he calls “a symphony of engineering,” and the efficiency of the battery developed by Tesla and Panasonic Corp. Munro also pointed to a comprehensive side-by-side comparison of the parts and materials used by the Model 3, General Motors’ Chevrolet Bolt, and BMW AG’s i3, in which the Model 3 comes out favorably.

The Munro report echoes a teardown published in June by German magazine WirtschaftsWoche. That analysis, conducted by German car engineers, found that the Model 3 costs about $28,000 to build – $18,000 for materials and $10,000 for production. The cheapest Model 3 currently available starts at about $50,000, though a $35,000 version is planned by around the end of this year.

CEO Elon Musk has based his prediction that Tesla will be profitable in the third and fourth quarters of this year on its ability to produce 5,000 of the sedans a week. The company exceeded that threshold in the last week of June, producing 5,031 units, but has yet to prove it can sustain those numbers. In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek last week, Musk said Tesla should be able to reach mass production without much strain in August.

Tesla has set a long-term target for the Model 3 to earn a 25 percent gross margin. In May, the company said it expected a “slightly lower” margin in the “medium term” because it dialed back automation in certain areas of manufacturing the car, boosting labor costs.

Tariffs, higher commodity prices and a weaker U.S. dollar also may drag on the sedan’s profitability, though consumers were paying more for it on average than Tesla expected, Musk and CFO Deepak Ahuja wrote in their quarterly letter to shareholders.

“The Model 3 is profitable,” Munro said. “I didn’t think it was going to happen this way.”


#640

Car companies have been screwing parts suppliers for ever, nothing to see here.