The Forest from the Trees: A post for the stats nerds


#281

Clearly this is complete BS. Belly was easily better around the ground ( 7 marks , 3 contested 1 goal vs 0,0,0) and had 10 hitouts to advantage, compared with 11 for Naitanui. Naitanui got clearances, but utterly butchered the ball.
McGovern, 1 intercept mark.

CD gets it so very wrong in many instances.


#282

Tell me who owns and runs Champion Date? Anyone know? And their connection to the AFL?


#283

Champion Data
Chris D____


#284

Ask for variations from CD stats… gets a bunch of responses about players from the opposition.

I’m too one-eyed to notice what opposition players are doing.


#285

49% AFL owned. Directors include two AFL executives


#286

Some thoughts on our chances of playing finals this year.

A 6-7 record is not heinous, and plenty of teams have qualified for finals from worse positions (including us at 6-8 last season, if memory serves). That said, it looks like being a ‘tough’ year to qualify, owing to four teams looking very un-competitive this season. All of the Elo based models give us Buckley’s chance, but such models are based on the idea that rapid changes in form are unlikely (they’re unable to adjust for the ‘Neeld-factor’). Out of curiosity, I decided to see how often 12/13 wins gets you into the finals since GC/GWS joined the comp. Results:

  • 50% of the time there is a team on 12 wins that doesn’t qualify
  • Only once (2012) would a team on 13 wins not have qualified (8th was on 14 wins, but they were two wins clear of 9th so I guess they could have lost one more and still qualified)

In short, 13 wins should get us there or we’d be very stiff indeed.

But are those bottom teams that bad? MatterOfStats makes a few points:

Brisbane Lions, in 17th, have kicked only about 1.5 goals per game fewer than Geelong, in 7th
The Western Bulldogs, in 14th, have registered more behinds than all but two of the teams in the 8
Teams currently in the 8 have, collectively, only a 10 and 7 record over the last three rounds"
"

I think there is an upset or two to come yet.


#287

Yep. It’s funny how nearly everyone assumes we’ll drop a silly game but all of our competitors won’t. They will.

We have set ourselves a lot of percentage to chase down, though.


#288

There’s always far more uphills than downhills.


#289

@BringBackBoris you are bang on about ELO being a slow moving ship, I had quite a few arguments with Matt from the arc about this when Essendon was recovering - not adjusting for that change in personnel was a big negative in all their models. My model uses a 3 game ELO gradient as well which I built in for that reason - to pick up swings in form earlier than the standard ELO model.


#290

I ran a few ladder simulators and had a missing on % with 13. It’s going to be very very tough if not down right impossible. There are a few teams a above us with pretty easy runs home. By comparison we have norf, pies, Hawks, Richmond, Swans and port (a) . We’re going to have to find at least 4 wins from that lot and get the business down against the handful of sides t who are below us. Compare that to Hawthorn’s draw; gws, dogs, lions, blues, Freo, us, cats, saints, Swans.

Norf; us, suns, Swans, pies, eagles, lions, dogs, crows, saints


#291

Where did you have West Coast finishing?
I doubt they’ll make top 4 with their remaining draw.
Wouldn’t be surprised if they only win 3 more games


#292

Can’t remember. Have a go yourself


#293

But all those hills are alive… with the sound of…

BOMBERS!


#294

Thanks. I had us making it on percentage… ahead of West Coast.

I honestly think if we get 13 wins and we can make a couple of them big ones to get the percentage to around 110, we’ll make it


#295

It always goes so well for us when we think we might be in for a % boost against a lowly side…


#296

We should do the percentage booster against some of the better sides then. Like this weekend!

In all seriousness, we’ll probably lose this weekend and be able to put the ladder predictors away.


#297

It becomes harder and harder to increase percentage as the year goes by . We would need to win the 9 games by an average of 30 about points. To achieve that, we have to really really put away sides below us. Thats unlikely, because we have lost the predator instinct.


#298

LOL, here we are. according to CD or best player is now Tommy Bellchambers.


#299

This year has really shown everyone, if the team is slightly off their game they can be beaten by someone else below them on the ladder. Look how many times it has happened this year already. We have to hope it happens to a few teams above us and we can keep on winning and improve our %.

However, worst comes to worst, and we miss out, we are setting ourselves us nicely for 2019.


#300

Could be faced with the prospect of beating Port in Round 23 to get in.