Some thoughts on our chances of playing finals this year.
A 6-7 record is not heinous, and plenty of teams have qualified for finals from worse positions (including us at 6-8 last season, if memory serves). That said, it looks like being a ‘tough’ year to qualify, owing to four teams looking very un-competitive this season. All of the Elo based models give us Buckley’s chance, but such models are based on the idea that rapid changes in form are unlikely (they’re unable to adjust for the ‘Neeld-factor’). Out of curiosity, I decided to see how often 12/13 wins gets you into the finals since GC/GWS joined the comp. Results:
- 50% of the time there is a team on 12 wins that doesn’t qualify
- Only once (2012) would a team on 13 wins not have qualified (8th was on 14 wins, but they were two wins clear of 9th so I guess they could have lost one more and still qualified)
In short, 13 wins should get us there or we’d be very stiff indeed.
But are those bottom teams that bad? MatterOfStats makes a few points:
Brisbane Lions, in 17th, have kicked only about 1.5 goals per game fewer than Geelong, in 7th
The Western Bulldogs, in 14th, have registered more behinds than all but two of the teams in the 8
Teams currently in the 8 have, collectively, only a 10 and 7 record over the last three rounds""
I think there is an upset or two to come yet.