Clearly this is complete BS. Belly was easily better around the ground ( 7 marks , 3 contested 1 goal vs 0,0,0) and had 10 hitouts to advantage, compared with 11 for Naitanui. Naitanui got clearances, but utterly butchered the ball.
McGovern, 1 intercept mark.
CD gets it so very wrong in many instances.
Ask for variations from CD statsā¦ gets a bunch of responses about players from the opposition.
Iām too one-eyed to notice what opposition players are doing.
Some thoughts on our chances of playing finals this year.
A 6-7 record is not heinous, and plenty of teams have qualified for finals from worse positions (including us at 6-8 last season, if memory serves). That said, it looks like being a ātoughā year to qualify, owing to four teams looking very un-competitive this season. All of the Elo based models give us Buckleyās chance, but such models are based on the idea that rapid changes in form are unlikely (theyāre unable to adjust for the āNeeld-factorā). Out of curiosity, I decided to see how often 12/13 wins gets you into the finals since GC/GWS joined the comp. Results:
In short, 13 wins should get us there or weād be very stiff indeed.
But are those bottom teams that bad? MatterOfStats makes a few points:
Brisbane Lions, in 17th, have kicked only about 1.5 goals per game fewer than Geelong, in 7th
The Western Bulldogs, in 14th, have registered more behinds than all but two of the teams in the 8
Teams currently in the 8 have, collectively, only a 10 and 7 record over the last three rounds""
I think there is an upset or two to come yet.
Yep. Itās funny how nearly everyone assumes weāll drop a silly game but all of our competitors wonāt. They will.
We have set ourselves a lot of percentage to chase down, though.
@BringBackBoris you are bang on about ELO being a slow moving ship, I had quite a few arguments with Matt from the arc about this when Essendon was recovering - not adjusting for that change in personnel was a big negative in all their models. My model uses a 3 game ELO gradient as well which I built in for that reason - to pick up swings in form earlier than the standard ELO model.
I ran a few ladder simulators and had a missing on % with 13. Itās going to be very very tough if not down right impossible. There are a few teams a above us with pretty easy runs home. By comparison we have norf, pies, Hawks, Richmond, Swans and port (a) . Weāre going to have to find at least 4 wins from that lot and get the business down against the handful of sides t who are below us. Compare that to Hawthornās draw; gws, dogs, lions, blues, Freo, us, cats, saints, Swans.
Norf; us, suns, Swans, pies, eagles, lions, dogs, crows, saints
Where did you have West Coast finishing?
I doubt theyāll make top 4 with their remaining draw.
Wouldnāt be surprised if they only win 3 more games
Thanks. I had us making it on percentageā¦ ahead of West Coast.
I honestly think if we get 13 wins and we can make a couple of them big ones to get the percentage to around 110, weāll make it
It always goes so well for us when we think we might be in for a % boost against a lowly sideā¦
We should do the percentage booster against some of the better sides then. Like this weekend!
In all seriousness, weāll probably lose this weekend and be able to put the ladder predictors away.
It becomes harder and harder to increase percentage as the year goes by . We would need to win the 9 games by an average of 30 about points. To achieve that, we have to really really put away sides below us. Thats unlikely, because we have lost the predator instinct.
This year has really shown everyone, if the team is slightly off their game they can be beaten by someone else below them on the ladder. Look how many times it has happened this year already. We have to hope it happens to a few teams above us and we can keep on winning and improve our %.
However, worst comes to worst, and we miss out, we are setting ourselves us nicely for 2019.
