The Forest from the Trees: A post for the stats nerds

Also we’re going to have to start calling peos Stan the statistician

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Yeah, I did bury the lead, somewhat.

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Ok, so here are my end of the regular season stats (Not including FINALS! Go Bombers!)

These are just the stats I think are relevant to certain positions. I’m not attaching any commentary to them, just putting them up.

I’ll start with the forward line, then put the others up as I do them.

NOTE: I did Aaron Francis’ figures manually, based just on his 4 games as a forward. Also I’ve split up the tables into two, hoping to improve readability.

Enjoy… Or don’t, that’s cool.

FORWARD LINE

Goals (total) Goal Assists (total) Goal Accuracy (%) Score Involvements (Av)
Stringer 39 13 54.9 6.9
Tippa 34 20 65.4 5.8
Hooker 33 8 52.4 5.7
Wright 29 7 63 4.9
Jones 20 7 64.5 3.8
Waterman 17 4 51.5 4.4
Smith 15 13 36.6 5.6
Snelling 12 9 63.2 4.9
Perkins 9 9 37.5 4.2
Francis 2 5 28.6 4.5
Marks inside 50 (av) Contested Marks (Av) Marks on lead (Av) Fwd 50 Ground Ball Gets (av) Tackles inside 50 (av) Pressure acts (av)
Stringer 1.4 0.4 0.6 1.4 1 18.1
Tippa 1 0.2 0.4 1.5 1.4 14.5
Hooker 2.1 0.8 1.2 2.6 1.1 7.9
Wright 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.7 0.5 7.6
Jones 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 8.6
Waterman 1.5 0.8 0.8 1.6 0.8 8.9
Smith 1 0.2 0.2 1.2 1 22.1
Snelling 0.8 0 0.3 1.4 1.4 20
Perkins 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.7 13.5
Francis 0.8 2 0.8 0.5 0 6.3
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Hooker beating Tippa for avg,. Ground Ball Gets is a surprise

Just about all of Hooker’s numbers are a surprise. Can play.

It’s going to be difficult leaving Walla out of the final team. I hope he is right to go.

Snellings numbers are pretty impressive.

I do not like Smith / Perkins / Francis goal accuracy numbers.

While contested marks are very good, I don’t think Francis holds his spot in the forward line based on those stats. Mind you, the guy has just been thrown up there… so plenty of room for improvement.

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Only Toby Greene averages more per game in the whole league.

That stat is bonkers.

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Walla playing the FB with kicks on his head and Hooker crumbing for goals. It is the way.

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the stat i like about jones is that he kicked 3 goals in the 6 games up to and including anzac day. thereafter he kicked 17 from the next 10. the confidence he got out of the last quater on anzac day was immense. he just started flying for and clunking a lot of marks and his teammates started to look for him.

averaging 1.7 goals 3.9 marks a game over the second half of the year is pretty damn impressive for a guy who was issentially a first year KPF

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I can picture it. Hooker smashes open a pack and then roved his own crumbs to pick the ball up before having a kick around the corner for goal.

Now for the Defenders.

I’ll split the table up a bit more, because the last was tough to read on mobile

THE BACKLINE

Contested defence loss percentage (%) Contested Defence One On Ones Contested Defence losses Spoils
Laverde 24 75 18 3
Ridley 14.3 49 7 4.8
Heppell 20 25 5 1.6
Francis 38.1 21 8 4.1
Stewart 34.9 63 22 2.1
Redman 33.3 21 7 1.1
Hind 16 25 4 1.2
Zerk 11.1 9 1 3
Cutler 11.1 9 1 0.8
Intercept marks (Av) Contested marks (av) Intercept possessions Pressure acts
Laverde 2.1 1 5.9 6.7
Ridley 2.2 1.1 6.4 4.8
Heppell 0.6 0.4 6.4 10.2
Francis 1.8 0.6 5.7 6.2
Stewart 2.4 1.3 6.3 4.6
Redman 1.3 0.5 4.4 9.6
Hind 0.8 0.3 5.6 10.1
Zerk 0.7 0.3 2.3 6.2
Cutler 0.6 0.1 3.1 5.8
Clangers Metres gained (AV)
Laverde 2.2 226.3
Ridley 1.9 419
Heppell 2.3 386.7
Francis 2.1 185.6
Stewart 2.3 226.7
Redman 2 336.8
Hind 3 435.1
Zerk 2.2 116.1
Cutler 1 259.6
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You don’t happen to have Snelling’s forward pressure acts vs Smith’s do you?

Edit - Snelling is there. Does the pressure act stat include all over the ground ?

Yeah, the whole ground, but it can be broken down into defensive half pressure acts.

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I reckon Lav’s defensive 1:1 work has improved as the season has progressed too… he’s almost as unbeatable as Ridley now

Stewart losing 2/5ths feels about right

zerk’s 1 v 1 numbers are great but the sample is small. I do wonder what we’d look like with zerk in stewart’s stewarts in cutlers role. maybe just iron out a few of the defensive calamity’s.

An interesting note, is that Zerk went at 40.7% last year.

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Only a small sample size this year but IIRC he hasn’t played on the main opposition kpf much when come into side. Which would have differed to last year.

On the percentages I think AFL average is around 30% loss for defenders

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yeah he got touched up in a few of our late seaons beltings as i recall. probably slightly unfair on him to judge him on that. no structure at all around him and the ball coming in over and over with barely a contest up the field.

i go back to that preseason game against geelong a few years back where zerk was preapred to play 5 meters in front of hawkins. he looked a million bucks. i still think he has something to offer but he can get exposed when the defense pushes high up the ground with lots of space out the back. i guess they weigh that and his less than damanging kicking against stewart’s brain fades because he does have the speed to get back and can damage sides by foot.

the contest over preseason for that KPD role will be intersting. they may also yet revert to a two genuine tall structure to free up ridley more. ridley has been supurb when required to play a bit more accountable over the last month. i’m not sure yet whether we a robbing Peter to pay Paul by doing that or whether that might actually end up being our best long term set up.

obviously Reid and Brand’s progress over the next 12 months is going to determine a lot. how quickly can they come on? pushing Stewart down the pecking order in terms of matchups and having Ridley take on more responsibilty might actually make room for reid in stewart’s role earlier than we expect.

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how quick is Reid btw?

Ok, now for the midfield. I’ve included Clarke in here because I forgot to count him in the forward stats. And, it allows him to win the most hilarious category for him to win.

Note: All figures are averages.

THE MIDFIELD

Av Possessions Contested Possessions Centre clearances Stoppage Clearances
Merrett 31.5 8.8 1.4 2.3
Parish 30.3 13.2 3.8 3.6
Stringer 16.8 8.8 3.3 1.2
McGrath 23.1 9.1 2 2.1
Shiel 18.7 6.4 2.4 1.9
Langford 20.8 6.6 0.5 1.5
Cox 12.3 4.4 0 0.9
Guelfi 11.5 4.8 0.2 0.7
Clarke 15.5 5.3 0.3 2
Ham 11.9 3.1 0.1 0.2
Durham 13.7 4.7 0.3 1.2
Ground ball gets Metres gained Tackles Pressure Acts
Merrett 6.3 445.6 4.7 22.7
Parish 9 458 3.9 22.1
Stringer 4.5 374.7 3.8 18.1
McGrath 6.9 270.5 4.5 18.4
Shiel 4 237.8 2.9 17.9
Langford 4.9 323.2 3.4 15
Cox 3.1 205.3 2.2 11.3
Guelfi 3.7 179.7 2.7 11.4
Clarke 3.3 141.8 2.3 17.8
Ham 2.4 192.1 1.6 11.4
Durham 3.7 165.1 1.2 15.3
Inside 50’s Score involvements Disposal efficiency
Merrett 5.5 6.9 74.9
Parish 6 7.6 72.4
Stringer 4.9 6.9 65.3
McGrath 2.8 5.1 71.5
Shiel 2.6 5.1 78.6
Langford 3.2 5.5 71.8
Cox 1.8 3.5 76.1
Guelfi 1.9 2.6 73.9
Clarke 3.5 4.3 82.3
Ham 2.3 3.3 69.6
Durham 1.5 4.3 80.5
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shiel’s efficiency a bit of a suprise there too. And Durham, what a spectucular month he’s had for a rookie. Presseason is going to do amazing things for him i reckon. he’s basically jumped up and demanded cox’s spot. i wonder where they see cox playing next year? i presume it will be the same role but if we have a fit list it is going to be a very tough side to get into.

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