The Forest from the Trees: A post for the stats nerds

Read the question at the bottom first. I hope we broke the Fark Carlton fan’s thing-that-passes-for-a-heart.


Lol. Desperate to grab on to anything that might make them special. What a weird question to ask.

Visual representation of forward line set ups at centre bounces:

Hopefully blurry chaos is a positive indicator



from this paper (which I am about to read):


What that tells me is that we do not separate enough in our forward line, while Geelong do, and Collingwood are extremely organised.

It’s also based on games in 2021 so would be interesting to see the change compared to under Brad Scott.

Ahhh. I didn’t notice, ta.

Interesting. It doesn’t scream organised and disciplined. Although perhaps intentional?

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From that, the only person who would approve of Essendon’s forward structure would be Werner Heisenberg

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Trying to locate when we first learned to have such low expectations leading in to matches that we should win.

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What’s your conclusion, when can we leave essington back to

If you take 2013 out of that (which is distorted by the AFL telling us the pre-determined result immediately before round 18) my eye-balling says the oft-claimed pattern does not exist. There might actually be a greater number of surprise wins than surprise losses.

Would be interesting to see if other teams are more predictable (e.g. like 2011 or 2016) than us.

Those are cool 4D graphs.

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Yeah, you could make arguments for 2007 or 2009 but I wouldn’t be so sure. 2017 and 2018 both having losses against teams that we’re 9-10 spots above after winning (at least) our last 3 certainly contribute to the sense that we lose those games that we should win, however I’ve carried that feeling far longer than that.

I think 2016 we really cracked the code; spend the season at the bottom of the ladder and nobody will be surprised when you lose.

Here’s some for all teams, not sure if it’s more useful to see a single team season-by-season over a longer period to compare instead.

All teams 2022:

2018 - 2023 (Not including round 11 2023)

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Just some juicy stats.

Best kicks

Worst kicks

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wHeRe’S pArIsH??

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Interesting to me is the low ‘threat rating’ for Zach. I assume that means we should be encouraging him to take more aggressive options

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The threat rating just relates to whether the kick is within a chain that ends with a shot on goal.

It is, as you’d expect, generally highest among the forwards in that table. For Zach, I think it reflects either where he is getting the ball (more back half) or his teammates turning it over.


You get totally different results depending on which column you sort by… stupid multi-factorial problems.

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Worth posting a link to Liam’s twitter, who made those kick rating lists, as he explains the process in a bit more detail and generally has posts some good stats related stuff that goes beyond the usual AFL media surface coverage.


Excellent. Definitive proof that Weid is a better field kick than Zach Merret.