I’d prefer to target Mason Wood if we’re offering a young tall overs on money. Would come cheaper and has a lot of upside.
I wouldn’t get Tom Boyd, the $$ is too much of a burden.
cant have a spud like him getting paid more than Zerrett, parish, Heppell, Daniher etc.
And I cant see the dogs moving him on and paying half of his salary.
Wouldn’t surprise me if the blues look at him if the dogs really want to move him along, surely they would have cap space. And are getting all ex GWS players, plus need a key forward who can kick. And while Fitzpatrick is in charge they can probably pay him in brown paper bags, and endorsement rules would be relaxed during the Boyd negotiation period. Problem is Blues are already giving up their first round pick for Mitchell I thought. But maybe Dogs would take next years first rounder of blues.
I still think he'll be a very good player and would jump at the chance to take him if only paying half his salary. He's a 20 year old key forward. How many 20 year olds or younger are playing key forward at AFL senior level? Off the top of my head Peter Wright is the only player I can think of.The most similar player in the comp to him is Hawkins, and at the same age they are tracking almost identically on averages. People are keen to see him fail because of his contract, but it’s way too early to call it a bust.
In answer to the first question McCartin, Wright, Moore, and Schache. Obviously a lot have been in the recent past too (Hogan, Daniher, Cameron, Stringer, Lynch, McCarthy, and so on as you go back in time).
Hawkins in particular had played 16 more games (a lot considering Boyd has played 27), kicking 1.4 goals per game to 1.0. Also 5 marks to 3.1, 11 disposals to 7.1 (6.3 kicks to 4.9). So Hawkins played more games, and on average kicked more goals, got more of the ball, and took more marks, all by a substantial amount. I imagine you’ll say games played and goals kicked doesn’t show the impact of a key forward or something, but here’s some comparison points after three years (ordered by games played):
Roughead - 58 games @ 1.0 goals
Franklin - 56 games @ 2.2 goals
Cameron - 51 games @ 2.4 goals
Stringer - 50 games @ 1.8 goals
N Riewoldt - 50 games @ 1.1 goals
Daniher - 48 games @ 1.4 goals
B Brown (in 3rd year) - 47 games @ 1.6 goals
J Riewoldt - 46 games @ 1.2 goals
Cloke - 45 games @ 1.2 goals
Hawkins - 43 games @ 1.4 goals
Hogan (in 3rd year) - 34 games @ 2.3 goals
Tippett - 33 games @ 2.2 goals
Walker - 32 games @ 1.8 goals
Patton who had a knee reconstruction - 29 games @ 1.2 goals
Boyd (in 3rd year but indefinitely suspended) - 27 games @ 1.0 goals
He is tracking better than Kennedy (29 games @ 0.6 goals) and arguably Dixon (35 games @ 0.8 goals) and GC Lynch (38 games @ 0.9 goals)
I’d forgotten about Schache, Moore and McCartin. Good call.
Seeing that Boyd is tracking better than Kennedy at Lynch at the same age is a pretty good sign that you are far from the finished product at 20. Lynch is the most valuable player in the comp in my opinion.
I still think he'll be a very good player and would jump at the chance to take him if only paying half his salary. He's a 20 year old key forward. How many 20 year olds or younger are playing key forward at AFL senior level? Off the top of my head Peter Wright is the only player I can think of.The most similar player in the comp to him is Hawkins, and at the same age they are tracking almost identically on averages. People are keen to see him fail because of his contract, but it’s way too early to call it a bust.
Half his salary is still 500K at a year.
You’d jump at the chance to take him for 500K a year? For real?
Sure I would. I’m not judging him on his current output, but rather the player I think he’ll become. If he can hold down a key forward position in an AFL team he’s worth $500k a year. I think the average AFL salary is a bit over $300k now.
Of course on current output he’s not worth $500k, but you don’t offer young players, especially key position players, a salary based on their current output. Unless you want them to walk.
How did this thread even come about? I have not heard anything about Boyd leaving the doggies.
I still think he'll be a very good player and would jump at the chance to take him if only paying half his salary. He's a 20 year old key forward. How many 20 year olds or younger are playing key forward at AFL senior level? Off the top of my head Peter Wright is the only player I can think of.The most similar player in the comp to him is Hawkins, and at the same age they are tracking almost identically on averages. People are keen to see him fail because of his contract, but it’s way too early to call it a bust.
Go back and see the performance of key talls taken in the top 5 of the draft - Watts no 1 in 2008 and is only now showing form, JD would have been taken top 3 and is starting to get it together, Patton No 1 has been injury prone but is still struggling to find his pace in the game, Boyd no 1 is in his third year and is a million miles away - Think recruiters need to reassess how high they select key talls.
Maybe people need to re-assess their expectations of what tall forwards are capable of in their first four years. They are taken early because they win you games of finals footy.
I don’t watch much GWS or dogs games - how mobile is he? Can he play any other position than FF (the occasional stint in the ruck)?
The days of being a 1 position player are gone and that is my biggest question mark on him.
Maybe people need to re-assess their expectations of what tall forwards are capable of in their first four years. They are taken early because they win you games of finals footy.
The fact is nearly all the dominant tall forwards are playing showing good glimpses in year two and playing consistently in year three - Then from year 4 they can really blossom - But if they are playing lots of State league footy in year 2 ,and particularly in year three, then you mah have an issue.
Remember top 5 draft selections are expected to be the cream of the crop - Recent draft history going back 10 years shows this is not the case.
How did this thread even come about? I have not heard anything about Boyd leaving the doggies.
You know…just 'cause.
agree with the fact that you have to give key forwards more time to develop. very rarely do they come into footy and dominate from the get go
having said that, there’s no way i’m paying half a mill for tom boyd because he still has probably 5 years left on his contract and the risk is too great (that is on the basis that bullies pick up half the tab, which i doubt they;d do)
redpath just signed for the bulldogs, and he has been much better than boyd this year. project forward to next year and they surely cant play boyd, stringer, redpath and crameri
so lets go after stringer insstead!
side note - there’s no way carlton do the judd deal if they knew how good josh kennedy would turn out to be
No to Boyd. Lets just get Todd Marshall at one of the later top 10 picks we acquire with our GC pick swap swindling.
agree with the fact that you have to give key forwards more time to develop. very rarely do they come into footy and dominate from the get gohaving said that, there’s no way i’m paying half a mill for tom boyd because he still has probably 5 years left on his contract and the risk is too great (that is on the basis that bullies pick up half the tab, which i doubt they;d do)
redpath just signed for the bulldogs, and he has been much better than boyd this year. project forward to next year and they surely cant play boyd, stringer, redpath and crameri
so lets go after stringer insstead!
side note - there’s no way carlton do the judd deal if they knew how good josh kennedy would turn out to be
It’s hardly surprising that Redpath is playing better than Boyd. He is five years older.
agree with the fact that you have to give key forwards more time to develop. very rarely do they come into footy and dominate from the get gohaving said that, there’s no way i’m paying half a mill for tom boyd because he still has probably 5 years left on his contract and the risk is too great (that is on the basis that bullies pick up half the tab, which i doubt they;d do)
redpath just signed for the bulldogs, and he has been much better than boyd this year. project forward to next year and they surely cant play boyd, stringer, redpath and crameri
so lets go after stringer insstead!
side note - there’s no way carlton do the judd deal if they knew how good josh kennedy would turn out to be
It’s hardly surprising that Redpath is playing better than Boyd. He is five years older.
fair call that. i thought he was a bit younger than 25. probably just another good example that big’s don’t really hit their straps until they’ve been in the system for 4 - 5 years
...... side note - there's no way carlton do the judd deal if they knew how good josh kennedy would turn out to beOh I don't know, Carlton through that period just didn't seem to rate talls. They didn't trade for them, seldom drafted them, and when they did they traded them out.
Except rucks. They loved rucks. Otherwise why would you trade for Warnock when you already had Kreuzer, Jacobs and Hampson???
...... side note - there's no way carlton do the judd deal if they knew how good josh kennedy would turn out to beOh I don't know, Carlton through that period just didn't seem to rate talls. They didn't trade for them, seldom drafted them, and when they did they traded them out.Except rucks. They loved rucks. Otherwise why would you trade for Warnock when you already had Kreuzer, Jacobs and Hampson???
how funny is it that the guy they traded in has retired. the guy they kept can’t get on the park. one of the ruck’s let go is probably a top 5 ruckman and the other has just about cemented his spot as a number 1 ruck in his team.
But why pay $500k for someone you aren’t expecting to deliver much for another 3-4 years? Do you think boyd will turn around and say “well you paid me $500k when I was rubbish so now that I am playing well I won’t ask for an increase”?
If we are paying $500k when we know we won’t get much (keep in mind he already is on $1m) then when he does come good we will be screwed (salary cap wise)
And that’s the other thing Windy, when his contract ends and dogs don’t have to pay half of it, does our space in the cap go from paying him $500k a year to pay say $1.2m? It won’t go up to $750k because that means he is taking a pay cut.
Jeezus this thread is growing legs…
I expect Boyd will be a senior fixture next year, and a damn good player the following year. Time will tell.