Eaves tries to murder a Port player; luckily she missed.
Fede busts and weaves through a pack, and then handballs over to Steph Williams for the sharp goal.
30-19
Williams to Slater to Frew.
You allow that, you will lose.
Port 32 Willy 20 at the final break
Dud(ley) has 38 hitouts and 38 fantasy points.
Stepnell has more fantasy points, and has a points:hitouts ratio of 10:1 rather than 1:1.
Port take two perfect kicks to create a set shot.
BANG!
26-32, here they come.
Willyās midfield is all over this, but three extra points rather than goals.
They also have wind and are not afraid to use it.
And THEY HIT THE FRONT!
35-32 Willyās way, with 10 minutes left.
The amount of sand on this oval is ridiculous. Every step or bounce is a splash of sand. Clearly didnāt rain down this way!
Ump pays a free plus fifty to give Port a chanceā¦
WILLY WIN!
We stay 4th on the ladder.
Port had some kind of plan, but it didnāt work.
Spoilers for the stats leaders post coming tomorrow: Dicker is now the #1 tackler in the league. Went past the Pieās Bates today.
Think weāve had 3 players in this role in 5 seasons: Bullas, Nanscawen, and now (if she holds on) Dicker.
Oops, Hawks got past us.
11th and 12th play tomorrow, but are irrelevant.
One fewer error, and weād be top of the ladder 
Manfre joins Paige Scott as leading goalkicker for the yearā¦ with 4.
We are trending to score barely more goals in the 14 rounds than we did in 2018. Weāre outscoring only Darebin.
(Mind you, weāve halved the scores against us, we have a pretty easy run home, and will likely make finals instead of being bottom-of-the-ladder!)
Replay is up.
Iāve done some score predictions for the final five rounds and despite yesterday itās actually quite plausible that we finish top and Geelong miss finals 
We face Darebin (12th of 12), Norf (10th), Dogs (11th), Casey (8th), Port (7th but dangerous), and the Dogs (11) again.
Cats face Port (7), Casey (8), Hawks (4), Pies (3), and Willy (9th but dangerous).
Our game versus Port in round 13 is critical: in my forecast if we win we finish top and Port fifth, but if Port win we finish fourth and Port may finish top (percentage becomes critical for them).
Itās a logjam up top, and I reserve the right to amend my predictions!
Weāll see if other teams pull their AFLW players from next week, 1-2 days before official pre-season starting, and how much that affects them.
So I can be held accountable for the above ridiculous claim for a team currently on <100%:
| Team | Games | Points | For | Against | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFC | 14 | 42 | 394 | 379 | 103.96% |
| Saints | 14 | 40 | 406 | 329 | 123.40% |
| Pies | 14 | 40 | 456 | 389 | 117.22% |
| FCFC | 14 | 36 | 479 | 332 | 144.28% |
| Port | 14 | 36 | 431 | 347 | 124.21% |
| Hawks | 14 | 34 | 435 | 406 | 107.14% |
| Cats | 14 | 32 | 426 | 301 | 141.53% |
| Willy | 14 | 32 | 426 | 392 | 108.67% |
| Norf | 14 | 20 | 370 | 428 | 86.45% |
| Casey | 14 | 16 | 496 | 480 | 103.33% |
| Dogs | 14 | 8 | 401 | 459 | 87.36% |
| Darebin | 14 | 0 | 233 | 711 | 32.77% |
This is based on forecasts of 30-25 wins, with the occasional 40-20 outlier (e.g. the Darebin games).
If you donāt like being so positive, my modelled season outcome has us scraping in to sixth.
| Team | Games | Points | For | Against | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cats | 14 | 48 | 452 | 287 | 157.49% |
| FCFC | 14 | 40 | 497 | 338 | 147.04% |
| Saints | 14 | 40 | 409 | 340 | 120.29% |
| Port | 14 | 36 | 438 | 360 | 121.67% |
| Pies | 14 | 36 | 469 | 409 | 114.67% |
| EFC | 14 | 34 | 397 | 402 | 98.76% |
| Hawks | 14 | 32 | 446 | 424 | 105.19% |
| Casey | 14 | 22 | 532 | 496 | 107.26% |
| Willy | 14 | 20 | 422 | 417 | 101.20% |
| Norf | 14 | 20 | 390 | 431 | 90.49% |
| Dogs | 14 | 8 | 439 | 472 | 93.01% |
| Darebin | 14 | 0 | 238 | 753 | 31.61% |
The model is pretty basic: it assumes every team scores the average of their previous āpoints forā and their opponentās previous āpoints againstā. It predicts that the Hawks and Demons will draw ā one more point to Box Hill and they play finals instead of us!
(That game is at Casey, by the way. In the other ladder I have predicted the Hawks win. If they draw, they come seventh, so the models agree on that at least!)
Those āforās and āagainstās update each round, but it does still punish those who have played their harder games first (like us).
The obvious message in both ladders is that one minor upset amongst the top 7-8 teams can have a significant impact.
EDIT: Home teams have averaged 3 more points than away teams this season ā not in the above model, but I have added it since.
Anyway, back to the thread topic.
QUARTER ONE
- I hope you enjoy listening to mumbling stats-keepers.
- Iām not telling you which ump is THAT umpā¦ but 6:10 and 6:15
- Manfre with serious blinkers on at 7:35. Just dribble it on the ground towards the pocketā¦
- Maddison Ford shows she can compete at ground level immediately after that, though.
- To her credit, THAT ump was the one of the two who actually called Clifford getting dumped. The other had a great view and wanted none of it.
- You can count the Cats holding two players back for The Wall at the 10 minute stoppage. Crook hangs back towards the goals and is thus useful at 10:40 and 11:05
- The throw at 11:30 is still funny the second time around. And thankfully noticed by the ump.
- Nice repeated physicality by us 11:50 to 12:00 (Chaston, Chaston, Dicker, Molan)
- Go to 12:50 to see the ump grossly failing to protect the safety of the players: Sutton cops a bit of a whack in the head, and then gets spike-pile-driven head-first into the turf. AFL MRO would sent the latter straight to the Tribunal. Here? Not even a free.
- Cats takes on Ugle, fails. Ump says no.
- Nice take and clearance by Bateman from 14:55. As one of our very few older players, she has to step up in the absence of those AFLW KPPs.
- Loving Chastonās work this quarter. Sheās a level above here, even if that hasnāt resulted in goals yet.
- Manfre missed marks: 2
- She does get the ballā¦ and then gets run down.
- 16:45 Hurrell literally crawls between a Catās legs.
- Manfre dropped marks: 3. Pretty much all our forward thrusts in this quarter are via herā¦ and stopping there.
- Manfre gets pointlessly bumped over from behind after the Dicker free at 18 minutes. Ump donāt care. At least Wilson did.
Literally >90% of this quarter was in the Catās half of the ground, and we held them scoreless. Well done!
QUARTER TWO:
- Wow for the start: Russell taps to Sutton, who kicks long for Wilson to mark running with it. She then hits up the leading Clifford perfectly. Who slots it comfortably from 35 and lets loose a rallying scream. More of this, please!
- Barely noticed Jayda so far, but is too far from her opponent this time to stop an easy mark. Itās also her opponent who goals at 3:25. If youāre flying for it, you must kill it and not let it slip to the back of the pack.
- It was at this stage the Cat nuffies started to be very annoying: you can see the two of them (plus kid) to the side of the goalface. You can also calculate how far the camera is from them based on the sound delay of them hitting the advertising boards.
- At least Manfre got a stoppage from the next strike forward.
- Crook picks up rook Liv Fuller when she pushes forward. Not so well at 5:30
- Kendra is well cooked when she comes off at 7:10. Dicker gives her some sympathy.
- I didnāt see Orritt on the day, and Iāve only just remembered she existed on this replay. She ends up with equal-fourth disposals for us, so hopefully I get better at picking her out!
- Fumble, fumble, accidental toe-poke, crappy handball: Cat Sarah Perrott will be having nightmares about how she set up Ugleās goal. This brings Courtney to 15th on our goal-kicking ladder, equal with 2018-only Valerie Moreau and 2019-only JESS STASSI.
- You can tell we have a score of our other VFLW and AFLW players, and Long Walkers, near the camera for that one.
- I have no idea what the ump at the next centre stoppage was thinking: everyone assumes Sutton was hit high, but ump has a different narrative in mind.
- Orritt is our extra stoppage player, guarding the defensive border of the contest. Shares a tackle to stop them getting out.
- Ryan being a BEAST at the throw-up at 10:25
- We are soooooooo dead without Sutton.
- Manfre dropped marks: 4 ā but she does collect and kick forward
- From that kick, Mia just shows her craft: the Cat is corralled and terrified, and PINGED.
- Our captains are loved by this crowd.
- Mia unwisely nominates for the ruck, and cops a flying knee to the ribs. Ow.
- The brute kick by Ryan at 11:50 is FAST, and perhaps more by luck than planning is accurate. Mia has recovered.
- Watch at 13:30 and tell me that ump (not THAT ump) does not have issues. In what world is that not a legit ruck contest and score for us? NOPE, and fifty as well.
- Meg doesnāt get back quick enough, and the same ump allowed the Cats ruck to run >15m after playing on.
- Extraordinarily late call by THAT ump at 14:40. Luckily we get a finger on it as it flies through for the resulting score.
- Bateman gets sucked into the contest, ball is popped over to her opponent (McKee) for the goal. We know McKee kicks the Catās remaining two goals, so keep an eye on that.
- Aggressive tackle by Russell in the centre stoppage, just before half-time.